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Way to much work valuing Weegar in a Trade

Créé par: SGB88
Équipe: 2023-24 Flames de Calgary
Date de création initiale: 1 nov. 2023
Publié: 1 nov. 2023
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
Summary order of Low to High Value

- Eckholm – 1st (expected later), 1st (Schaffer last years 32nd)

- Hamilton – 1st (15th), 2nd (45th), 2nd (52nd)

- Chychrun – 1st, 2nd, 2nd (1st round pick very likely to be between 10-16 due to conditions)

- Eichel – 1st(Krebs last years 17th), 1st(expected to be low) plus between a 3rd and 2nd a 3rd (this ones harder to value because of Tuch)

- Jones – 1st (12th), 1st(expected to be 10-16 range, probably) 2nd (44th)

Conclusion: Weegar - 1st, 1st, 2nd from a contender
Transactions
1.
CGY
  1. Ekholm, Mattias
Détails additionnels:
Reason he’s a comp: getting 4 year of top D at a decent cap hit, there’s some downside risk with that age and term.

Value – 1st, 4th, Barrie (probably paying extra to get rid of this cap, could say 4th is to take his cap), Reid Schaffer (last year’s 32nd overall pick so basically around 1st to a 2nd in value) Summary 1st (expected later), 1st (Schaffer last years 32nd)

Raise value – only 4 years left on the contract (ends when he’s 37 instead of 38), have a better sense of where is on his aging curve

Lowers value – older, LD, not as good
EDM
2.
CGY
  1. Hamilton, Dougie
Détails additionnels:
The reason he’s a comp: was traded as an RFA and signed to a reasonably long and similar contract, with some similarity in the quality of the players

Value – 1st (15th overall), 2nd (45th overall), 2nd (52nd overall)

Raises Value – Younger, less backend in risk

Lowers Value – more risk that he isn’t what you think due to small sample size, you’re hoping he’s as good as Weegar (he was, probably pretty close at his best)
NJD
3.
CGY
  1. Chychrun, Jakob
Détails additionnels:
Reason he’s a comp: you’re trading for those 3 years where he’s a good value as a Top D like Weegar which main part of the value in each trade.

Value: 1st, 2nd 2nd (1st round pick very likely to be between 10-16 due to conditions)

Raises value – lower cap hit, don’t need to take on the backend, can resign at end if you want

Lowers value – not as good, LD
OTT
4.
CGY
  1. Eichel, Jack
Détails additionnels:
Reason he’s a comp: Different positions but C and RD are both very valuable, both great players in their position, and both have weird risks associated with them that hard to quantify

Value – 1st (was probably expected to be a lot lower than it was), 2nd, minus a 3rd, Krebs (1 year removed form 17th overall) and Tuch (definitely very good at the time, but not the steal he is in retrospect with his contract and the cap crunch maybe worth a 2nd? It’s hard to say, he might have even been a full on cap dump at the time). Summary about two 1st and a 3rd to about 2 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd

Raises Value – Younger, better player, center

Lowers Value – Larger contract, back injury
VGK
5.
CGY
  1. Jones, Seth
Détails additionnels:
Reason he’s a comp: The contract was already in place before the trade so it can be treated like a sign and trade or that he was already on that contract. Even though I think Jones is WAY worse than Weegar or anyone else on this list, the league values Jones like Weegar, at least at the time, so I will pretend that’s his value based on quality is the same.

Value – 1st (12th overall), 2nd (44th overall), next year 1st (top 2 protected, but it was likely to be high), minus (32nd overall pick), minus next year’s 6th, Boqvist (3 years ago 8th, definetly not as valuable as the pick spot at the time, but almost certain worth a 1st of some sort). How to value this, I think the 1st and the 6th probably is pretty close to Boqvists value at the time (who knows maybe that was added to the trade to get Boqvist) so for my own sanity and to simplify this I’m going to cancel those out. Summary: 1st(12th overall), 2nd (44th overall), next years first (top 2 protected, but likely to be high, I’m guessing they were valuing it around 10-16 since that’s where Chicago picked the last 3 years)

Raises Value – Younger (will be 35 at the end of the deal), you’ve got him for more “good years” since it’s effectively a 9 year contract, less backend risk

Lowers Value – Worse cap hit except for the first year
CHI
6.
CGY
  1. Choix de 1e ronde en 2024 (VAN)
  2. Choix de 1e ronde en 2025 (VAN)
  3. Choix de 2e ronde en 2025 (VAN)
VAN
  1. Weegar, MacKenzie
Détails additionnels:
I think he's worth more than Eckholm, Hamilton or Chychrum, he is the better player.

He is worth less than Jones, the way the market treated Jones in my view was like defenseman who is or was as good as Weegar. I don't think he is, but the important thing is how he is or was valued, not how good he actually is. Even though he's paid more, without the crazy backend downside risk and with more "good years" I think it's fair to say he would be worth more than Weegar, even though I'd never pay it.

Weirdly enough I think the best comp in some ways is Eichel, they're both such weird trades. Big upside with big downside risk.

Either way you slice it, it's between Jones and Chychrun or it's in Eichel's hard-to-determine range you get around two 1st and 3rd to 2 1sts, a 2nd and 3rd as his value.

To come to an actual conclusion I'll say 2x1sts and 2nd from a contending team sometime in 2024.
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2024
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2025
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2026
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TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2783 500 000 $108 363 333 $0 $1 062 500 $-24 863 333 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
Logo de Flames de Calgary
10 500 000 $10 500 000 $
AG, AD
NMC
UFA - 8
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7 000 000 $7 000 000 $
C
NMC
UFA - 6
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5 800 000 $5 800 000 $
AD, AG
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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3 100 000 $3 100 000 $
C, AG, AD
UFA - 2
Logo de Flames de Calgary
5 350 000 $5 350 000 $
C
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo de Flames de Calgary
4 900 000 $4 900 000 $
AD, AG
NTC
UFA - 4
Logo de Flames de Calgary
775 000 $775 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 2
Logo de Flames de Calgary
4 850 000 $4 850 000 $
C, AD
UFA - 1
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925 000 $925 000 $ (Bonis de performance850 000 $$850K)
AD
RFA - 2
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762 500 $762 500 $
AG, C
UFA - 1
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2 300 000 $2 300 000 $
AG, AD, C
RFA - 1
Logo de Flames de Calgary
825 000 $825 000 $
AD
UFA - 2
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863 333 $863 333 $ (Bonis de performance212 500 $$212K)
AG, C
RFA - 2
Logo de Flames de Calgary
762 500 $762 500 $
AD, AG
UFA - 1
Logo de Golden Knights de Vegas
10 000 000 $10 000 000 $
C
NMC
UFA - 3
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
Logo de Flames de Calgary
4 550 000 $4 550 000 $
DD
UFA - 3
Logo de Flames de Calgary
6 000 000 $6 000 000 $
G
NMC
UFA - 3
Logo de Flames de Calgary
1 237 500 $1 237 500 $
DG
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo de Flames de Calgary
1 125 000 $1 125 000 $
DD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo de Flames de Calgary
2 200 000 $2 200 000 $
G
UFA - 2
Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
6 000 000 $6 000 000 $
DG/DD
UFA - 3
Logo de Devils du New Jersey
9 000 000 $9 000 000 $
DD
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
9 500 000 $9 500 000 $
DD
NMC
UFA - 7
Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
4 600 000 $4 600 000 $
DG/DD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo de Flames de Calgary
3 750 000 $3 750 000 $
DG/DD
UFA - 1
Logo de Flames de Calgary
925 000 $925 000 $
DG/DD
UFA - 1
Logo de Flames de Calgary
762 500 $762 500 $
DG
UFA - 1
Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
Logo de Flames de Calgary
2 500 000 $2 500 000 $
DG/DD
UFA - 1
Logo de Flames de Calgary
1 300 000 $1 300 000 $
C
UFA - 1

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1 nov. 2023 à 11 h 13
#1
Banni
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I think he has a minimum value of 2 1sts and a 2nd with no retention
1 nov. 2023 à 11 h 20
#2
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As an outside who likes Weegar, I think you are over-valuing him. Not because I don't think he is good, or at a fair cap number, but because of the term. All the comps you are using are for players who were younger (except for Ekholm) and on more manageable contract terms relative to their age. The only player who was a risk was Eichel, but the 'boom' potential of that trade was worth the risk. Weegar is locked in until he is 37, which I think decreases the value.

I could see a team paying a 1st and 2nd. I think expecting 2 1sts is pretty rich based on the fact that he will likely be negative value for the last 3-4 years of his deal based on player regression curves/averages.
bdb a aimé ceci.
1 nov. 2023 à 11 h 21
#3
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I can't see him getting two 1's. Very good, top pairing dman, but he's turning 30 this year and is signed for 8 more seasons at 6.25. If Calgary is actually rebuilding, someone is essentially helping them out by taking his contract. I can see a first and a top prospect from a contender.
bdb a aimé ceci.
1 nov. 2023 à 12 h 4
#4
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My big problem with the comparables you used (minus Ekholm) is that they were all in their early or mid 20's at the time of those trades. The acquiring team in those trades were buying those players' prime years which wouldn't be the case for Weegar at 30.

The reason Weegar's value is so unclear is because he is in a fairly unique situation with few to no comps. Players don't usually get traded with 7 or 8 years of term left and usually the selling team is motivated by a pressure point to resolve the situation. Hamilton had just completed his ELC and clearly the team and player didn't see eye-to-eye on his role and compensation moving forward. Eichel needed surgery to play and the team and player couldn't agree on what treatment he should have. Jones was entering his pending UFA season on a rebuilding team. Chychrun had been asking to be traded for over a year, had trade protection coming up in his contract and was playing well leading into the trade deadline. Arizona probably felt he was at peak value and didn't want to risk an injury if they kept him until the offseason.

I personally think the most likely outcome would be a good old-fashioned "Hockey Trade" or an Ekholm or Trouba style trade where a team upgrades their defence at the cost of 1st/prospect combo.
bdb et Synergy a aimé ceci.
1 nov. 2023 à 12 h 9
#5
I Love J Boqvist
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Hamilton was 21 years old and a stud. Not comparable
 
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