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Hockey_Hippy

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Maple Leafs de Toronto
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Forum: Armchair-GM13 avr. à 10 h 0
Sujet: Leafs Big Off-Season Moves
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JustNinjaShep</b></div><div>I realize Tavares waiving his No Move Clause is unlikely but if the team plays Hard Ball with him &amp; makes it clear that they NEED him off the books.... Assuming Tavares is willing to Waive what do you all think??</div></div>

I think he'd retire before he'd waive. And I think it would leave a stain on the Leaf brand going forward that would hurt their chances of attracting FAs.

McDonagh is a different case entirely. His game had clearly fallen off in Tampa to replacement levels, and he had three years left on his deal. He'd also won two cups already, he'd gotten his pound of flesh out of that deal.

The Tavares of today is not the Tavares of five years ago, but he has not declined to that level.
Forum: Armchair-GM13 avr. à 9 h 39
Sujet: Leafs Big Off-Season Moves
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Tavaras has full control over where he plays, no chance at all he is waiving to play in Chicago

No clue who you are using to check your prospect rankings but Toronto's prospect pool is ranked 28th by Scott Wheeler and Voit is ranked as their 12th best prospect. He isn't worth anything right now and Calgary already has their own version of him in Rory Kerins. Replace him with Niemela and Calgary may do it

Toffoli isn't signing that. He was traded from Calgary because he wanted a long term deal, and then was eventually traded from New Jersey for the exact same reason. Someone will give him 5+ years, I doubt he cares where.</div></div>

I agree Tavares isn't waiving, but Wheeler and Pronman do not view prospects post draft nearly as much as they do pre-draft. They get the odd international tournament. I've probably watch 40 MarIies games alone this year, never mind the junior, NCAA, and KHL stuff. I agree with you Voit is not top of the pops in their pipeline, but that is primarily due to two things: Size and Health.

Toronto is very deep in their prospect pool in terms of forwards 4 through 12. They already have 1-3 for the next 5 or 6 years. Given what Cowan is doing now in comparison to what Marner did at a similar age in a similar situation, I would not bet against him being in that last group at some point.

Duschene has a well documented history of being on one year and off the next. He is in no way worth that contract. Tavares would count more points.

You've priced Pesce about right, but Liljegren will fill that role and save you 4 mil.

I doubt Treliving moves a 1st for Markstrom or anyone for that matter. I think that is a philosophical difference between him and Dubas, for better or worse.
Forum: Armchair-GM6 avr. à 13 h 11
Sujet: Bruins Post Marchand
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SJSF</b></div><div>I don't remember Zacha having an attitude or effort issue in Jersey. And Coyle was an instant locker room/high character guy from the moment he landed in Boston. I also agree that Winnipeg and Columbus weren't ideal situations (although CBJ was good for a couple years while he was there and he still dragged his ass playing for Torts). My question is why should Boston risk him being a project they have to expend effort correcting when they could just bring in players who doesn't have the alleged attitude problem and who in 99% of cases are on better contracts? I think part of what keeps Boston's culture strong is who they choose to bring in. Guys like Backes or Foligno weren't great value pickups (although Fliggy was a dog on their 4th line last year) but they were true leaders who instantly added to the leadership group.

PLD at 8.5 HAS to be their 1C, which he hasn't been able to do in his career yet. Some of that has to do with who has been in front of him but I don't like his odds of making that leap at this point.</div></div>

Both Zacha and Coyle underachieved where they had been prior to Boston. Both had been drafted to be #1 centers and both failed in that regard. In this scenario I am not expecting PLD to be a #1 center. I do not even have him in the middle. I also agree with you on Coyle and for that matter your middle pairing on D. It is *because of this* I think they can take that chance, similar to what Colorado did with Kadri. He had a checkered past in Toronto, but the Avs surrounded him with types who would keep him in line and he prospered.

[quote=SJSF;4816601If they trade either goalie, it should be for futures or prospects they can choose to keep or use to acquire a player. Going player for player with a goalie isn't going to get them value because the position is so undervalued on the market.

They seem to have indicated pretty clearly that Swayman is their guy going forward, based on what happened at the deadline. They don't need more goaltending prospects. They have Bussi and Dipietro both looking to take on a backup role, and Reid Dyck playing well in Junior.[/quote]

So I'm not seeing either Bussi or DiPietro as someone whom you groom to be a starter and Dyck just turned 20, so he is three years away assuming he keeps progressing. Portillo is about a year away and has a 7 year track record of blowing up shooters at all levels. He dovetails nicely with Ullmark's inevitable fade as he ages out.

[quote=SJSF;4816601As far as the forward prospect, I don't see anything looking him up that indicates he'll be a big boost to the pipeline. They've already shown how off those forecasters can be at evaluating talent with Beecher and Lohrei both taking massive steps and becoming full time NHLers this year. Guys like Merkulov, Lysell, Jellvik and Farinacci will all be pushing to take spots next year, and Pelosi and Hendrickson in the USHL are garnering a lot of attention as really good depth pickups in recent drafts.[/quote]

Of the last four you are counting on the heaviest of the first three is 181 pounds. Frankly I think Farinacci is a year away assuming he keeps progressing and I'd like to see what Jellvik does away from that uber talented BC team before making a final call on him. Ziemmer is well over 6'0 and over 200 pounds and had 89 points in 68 games in his draft year. He is what your pipeline lacks. Size that can score. And he is younger than all of them.

[quote=SJSF;4816601The other thing is that they are most definitely not signing Forbort at more than he currently makes. He struggled tremendously after coming back from injury this year and was already overpaid at 3 million. There probably won't even be room for him if he were to take a 1 mil. AAV deal with how Wotherspoon has filled in on the third pair.[/quote]

That's the way of the world. I admit, I am not as knowledgeable on the depths of the Bruins D as you probably are.

[quote=SJSF;4816601Overall the idea of moving Swayman (although most Bs fans hate it) could get them a long-term solution at C, but I really don't think PLD is a wise choice[/quote]

I'm not looking at PLD for that. He is a lottery ticket, albeit, I'm betting one with a decent chance of winning given the Bruin's culture. The real value in the deal is the two prospects and the 1st. My guess is you do not get that alone for Swayman without taking PLD's ticket. Those are some very highly thought of assets. And it is not like the Kings have no idea how to draft and develop forwards.
Forum: Armchair-GM6 avr. à 11 h 34
Sujet: Bruins Post Marchand
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SJSF</b></div><div>Yeah I want Boston to avoid PLD like the plague. He's been a problem on 3 out of 3 teams he's played for and he's only been in the league since 2017. And his contract is terrible</div></div>

Take a look at two of the three teams PLD has played for, Columbus and Winnipeg. Both of those teams were leadership weak sides. LA he is in his first year there and it is rather transitionary. Kopitar and Doughty are the big two but they are getting old and who is coming up behind them? There is a bit of a void there. Boston on the other hand, say whatever you want about them, they have a solid dressing room culture and have for years. To me, they are the *one* team I think that could turn PLD and I'm a Leaf guy, not a Bruins guy. Even after Chara and Recchi, there was Bergeron and Marchand, and after them it will be Pastrnak and McAvoy and now Zacha. And everyone crowds in behind them.

Again, remember Zacha was an underachieving big man as well in New Jersey. Coyle was the same on multiple teams too. Boston made it work. If there is one thing I want the Leafs to take from the Bruins it is that.

Why Swayman and not Ullmark? Because Swayman has a lot more value and the Bruins need pipeline assets badly. Portillo is seen as a future stud and Ziemmer is your typical big bodied Bruin power forward in training wheels. Plus you are adding another 1st.

That's my reasoning.
Forum: Armchair-GM5 avr. à 19 h 51
Sujet: 24-25 Leafs Look Ahead I
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pens1991</b></div><div>a first round pick for a 4th liner, an undrafted player and a future 3rd guy.

For a team that's very close to a rebuild lol.

Awful</div></div>

So I'm going to assume you missed this part of the trade explanation:

"I tend to ignore the opinions of people who make calls on prospects based on draft pedigree more than a year after they have been selected/signed. More than anything, it tells me they have not actually viewed the player in question and are basing their opinion on outdated information or the opinions of others who are doing the same.

I've watched about 40 games of the Marlies (if not more) this season alone. I know what they have down there and how they compare to what other teams have. If you want a serious hockey discussion about what they do and don't do, I'll engage. You want to shoot one line trolls based on nothing but ill informed hot takes I won't."

Niemela is a third pairing guy as long as Letang and Karlsson are there. How long do you think that will be?
Forum: Armchair-GM2 avr. à 19 h 12
Sujet: 24-25 Leafs Look Ahead I
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SydBarrett</b></div><div>Oh I must have forgot that goals and controlling the play doesn’t get you wins .
How silly of me to think a league where the winner of every game is based on the most goals should actually value defenseman who can’t score or control play more than the defenders who can.
You can keep enjoying your 3 bottom pairing RD.
Pens will keep enjoying having two top pair RD</div></div>


xG% measures shot type and placement both ways. It is a handy tool for analyzing shot suppression and lack thereof. There is far more to playing defense than that. And xG% looks at none of it. Feel free though to rate your defense using only that metric. No one who gets paid to do it does.

In terms of Niemela, who is the only defenseman in *this* deal, his tool kit is very similar to that of Letang's. He has his big brain in terms of processing and does not beat himself out there. He is also among the points leaders among defensemen in his first year in the AHL. I think you've missed the mark in your jibe here.

As for your top two RHD, I've never disputed that they are very good offensively. Two years ago I would have said that Letang was better than Liljegren defensively as well, but Liljegren has taken some big steps forward in that regard this season. Hence my call there. It's simply a case of Letang getting older and Liljegren reaching his prime as a player. What I *have* disputed is their depth behind them. This is especially important given the ages and contract status of Letang and Karlsson. Niemela would be the natural heir to that throne by the time they retire in two or three years. Pittsburgh does not have a guy like that in their pipeline and Dubas knows it.
Forum: Armchair-GM29 mars à 14 h 19
Sujet: 24-25 Leafs Look Ahead I
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SydBarrett</b></div><div>Letang is better than every single RD on the leafs using both advanced stats and regular stats.
Karlsson is better than every single leafs RD using both advanced stats and regular stats.
This information is very easily found using many different hockey comparison sites.
The leafs absolute best RD wouldn’t even be in the top 4 in Pittsburgh. Feel free to actually do some research yourself before making such a ridiculous claim.
The fact that I even have to explain this is astounding to me and shows your extreme homerism.
The pens have multiple options for bottom pair RD that have filled in very well this year.
RD is quite possibly the pens biggest strength and the leafs biggest weakness lmao .
What even is this conversation.
If you want the pens first we will take knies, lili, and a 2nd.
They’d add some good depth to our 3rd line and 3rd pairing. Otherwise dubas laughs .</div></div>

xG% does not actually take into account defensive events such as blocked shots, killed cycles, box outs etc. In terms of measuring defense it comes up woefully short. Woefully short.

It slants heavily towards offensive defensemen and punishes those blueliners who are defensive specialists because it ignores their contributions. Ask anyone who *works in the business* and they will tell you the same about it's limitations as an analytical tool.

You are basing everything you have said above on faulty incomplete data.
Forum: Armchair-GM26 mars à 20 h 7
Sujet: 24-25 Leafs Look Ahead I
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Villeneuve may be bigger but is he NHL good enough??? I guess you could say the same about Villeneuve. What a bonus if those two guys could fill in next season in. case of injury and be regulars in 25/26.
You commented about Timmins. When he's played, IMO he has been solid.</div></div>

At the beginning of the season Villeneuve alternated between having happy feet and deer in the headlights eyes.. That was the big bugaboo in his game. Size, skating, vision, shot, compete, the rest was there. But now the panic in his game has vanished. He is confident out there now. I think at the end of the day, you are looking at a Liljegren clone, a defenseman who is above average across the board but has no one thing that is outstanding.

On a Toronto team, it's a tough ask for either to be full time players given their depth. But as I said earlier, they play immediately in Pittsburgh.

Villeneuve I think is a year away. I'm all about overcooking prospects. Could not care less if they break in a couple years later than someone else.
Forum: Armchair-GM26 mars à 18 h 58
Sujet: 24-25 Leafs Look Ahead I
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SydBarrett</b></div><div>Pens already have depth forwards so they don't need to give up a potentially very high first to help toronto shed salary lol . and they could very very easily sign similar players in free agency without giving up ANY picks.
Topi may be a good piece but if the pens are moving a first any time soon it is for established young nhl talent. Topi is not that. He is already 22 and has one season of pro experience in north america. Not one single game in the NHL. To claim the leafs right side is deeper than the pens is utterly laughable.

if you want that high first then you can give up something of tangible value. like knies. Even then the pens may say no thank you.</div></div>

Who is your 3RHD?

I suspect the Leafs sign back Lyubushkin.

Rielly/Liljegren
McCabe/Lyubushkin
Benoit/Timmins

Are Letang and Karlsson better than Liljegren and Lyubushkin? Offensively they certainly are. Not defensively. And who is it you have after them that is better than Timmins, signed for another year for 1.1 btw?

Also, Topi Niemela turned 22...on Monday.