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Danny12357

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12 juill. 2018
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Maple Leafs de Toronto
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Forum: NHL Trades2 mars 2023 à 7 h 30
Sujet: (NSH/EDM) - Ekholm and 6th for Barrie, Schaefer, 1st and 4th
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KSIxSKULLS</b></div><div>Edmonton traded 2 firsts and a number 4-D for a number 3-D. That is not good asset management</div></div>

2 firsts is a pretty big stretch, and calling Barrie a "4-D" is pure fiction.

Edmonton had to make a move for a D, full stop, no excuses, they were available and they needed to do something. I think they got one of the more impactful D available. The contract isn't a home run, but Ekholm is still a massive upgrade on Barrie. Edmonton likely couldn't be in on Chycrun in any real way since they needed retention and to move a horrible contract to make this deal function, and Arizona was apparently not interested in retention or taking back even a dollar of contract, so I think they managed to get the 2nd best defender available. I don't think this was a home run for Edmonton, but they absolutely had to trade for a D, because with a wide open West, a secure playoff spot, and McDavid having arguably the greatest season of any player in at least 20+ years, you can't just do nothing with such a glaring need.

I don't think Holland is a great manager, and maybe I'm just a bit more high on this because compared to some of the names they were interested in (Gavrikov, Edmundson) this is a win, but I think this is a reasonable use of those assets for a team that really needs to stop making excuses, otherwise their excuse in a couple of years will be that they "had" to trade McDavid because he wasn't going to re-sign.
Forum: NHL Trades2 mars 2023 à 7 h 14
Sujet: (ARI/OTT) - Chychrun for 1st, 2nd, 2nd
Ottawa wins this deal easily. Arizona demanded so much for Chycrun and dragged this on for so long that it really feels like Dorion won out here simply by being patient. He didn't need a D, he needed a good top pairing D who is age appropriate for this core, and there was only one of those available. They were comfortable passing on every other option and stuck to their offer. Other teams got frustrated that Arizona was seemingly playing offers off each other, and one by one, the teams with pressing needs for this playoff run found different options. Dorion just stood there, waited for the dust to settle, and probably had a pretty great feeling when Arizona came back and accepted this offer.

Ottawa is taking a little risk here, but Chycrun is the type of player you are trying to get when you draft high. He can be part of your core, not just a support piece. Ottawa isn't in a playoff spot today, but they are close and teams like Washington and Detroit seem to be taking themselves out of the race, they did get some protection on the pick, and the reality is we know Ottawa isn't bad enough to really be in on Bedard or any of the other top 3-4 picks. Dorion did well here simply by being patient. He didn't need to be in on any other D, and because Arizona bungled this so badly, they basically waited til everyone else bowed out and Arizona was left with no choice. Great work.
Forum: NHL Trades2 mars 2023 à 6 h 51
Sujet: (NSH/EDM) - Ekholm and 6th for Barrie, Schaefer, 1st and 4th
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Danny12357</b></div><div>I think this trade just makes a lot of sense. Most big deals are seldom fair, there is usually just too much going on to not like it better for one team than another, but I think this is pretty bang on.

Nasville is fully committed to a tear down and rebuild, and getting out from under a contract that might not age well while getting a 1st without big retention is a pretty nice piece of work. You take a cap dump in Barrie, but if they are committed to the tear down, he can likely be flipped in the offseason or next deadline with money retained and get an additional asset. Barrie isn't worth his current salary, but some team will likely be willing to give up a little something for a power play specialist of Barrie's calibre if he only cost half as much, and if it was his final year on his deal.

Edmonton gets the exact type of defensemen they need. Their window isn't necessarily closing, but if they don't show McDavid they are serious, I think there is a real risk that he won't re-sign, and with how wide open the west is, this is as good a year to go for it. Ekholm's contract is probably either fair for his value, or maybe he's a little overpaid, but he's a great fit for their needs, and definitely less overpaid than Barrie is right now.

I really don't think there was more to get if you are Nashville, unless you retain a much larger percentage of his cap hit, so I think this was a creative solution, and I<strong> think Edmonton probably got the most cost effective (in terms of assets) trade still available for an impactful D</strong>. Win-win.</div></div>

Well that take aged like milk haha. Obviously Edmonton couldn't go out and just get Chyrcrun if Arizona was putting so much stock in being able to move him while taking absolutely no salary back, but it must suck if you are Holland and you are feeling decent about yourself for getting Ekholm, then another Canadian team just upstages you within hours haha.
Forum: NHL Trades1 mars 2023 à 10 h 14
Sujet: (CHI/ARI/NYR) - Kane, Zech for 5th for Welinski, 2nd, 4th
New York does well simply by being the only option, but with all of the context, I actually think the Blackhawks did as well as you could hope here. If the Rangers end up making that a 1st, that will be a nice return for a player that is just flat out nowhere near as good as his perceived value at this point, and one that basically gave his GM one team to deal with.

Davidson manages to do right by his franchise icon, get value for a player that no longer had value to their team, and could end up getting a 1st in a deal where he had no leverage, and an asset whose value is almost entirely based on prior accomplishments. Kane won't have to be "the guy" offensively in New York, so maybe he has much more to offer than he looked so far this year, but honestly, I think the Blackhawks did well here when considering it in full context.
Forum: NHL Trades1 mars 2023 à 10 h 9
Sujet: (CBJ/MIN) - Nyquist for 2023 5th round pick
I really like what the Wild have done this offseason. It's not sexy, it's not splashy, but I think realizing exactly where you are at in your window, and acting accordingly is underrated. They have managed to add some depth scoring, while essentially breaking even in asset cost. They have so much dead cap over the rest of this year and the next two, that they really can't be the best version of this roster, but they aren't fully throwing away Kaprizov's good years either. They seem like a team that's angling to be a dark horse type competitor for a couple of years, with good value shrewd moves, and ideally peak right when their cap opens up.

I think people forget that Minnesota still has a very deep prospect pool, so all the pieces are in place for this strategy to work, I think the tough decisions are going to be on deciding whether or not Spurgeon and Brodin are part of the long terms strategy given their current ages and contracts.
Forum: NHL Trades1 mars 2023 à 9 h 58
Sujet: (NSH/EDM) - Ekholm and 6th for Barrie, Schaefer, 1st and 4th
I think this trade just makes a lot of sense. Most big deals are seldom fair, there is usually just too much going on to not like it better for one team than another, but I think this is pretty bang on.

Nasville is fully committed to a tear down and rebuild, and getting out from under a contract that might not age well while getting a 1st without big retention is a pretty nice piece of work. You take a cap dump in Barrie, but if they are committed to the tear down, he can likely be flipped in the offseason or next deadline with money retained and get an additional asset. Barrie isn't worth his current salary, but some team will likely be willing to give up a little something for a power play specialist of Barrie's calibre if he only cost half as much, and if it was his final year on his deal.

Edmonton gets the exact type of defensemen they need. Their window isn't necessarily closing, but if they don't show McDavid they are serious, I think there is a real risk that he won't re-sign, and with how wide open the west is, this is as good a year to go for it. Ekholm's contract is probably either fair for his value, or maybe he's a little overpaid, but he's a great fit for their needs, and definitely less overpaid than Barrie is right now.

I really don't think there was more to get if you are Nashville, unless you retain a much larger percentage of his cap hit, so I think this was a creative solution, and I think Edmonton probably got the most cost effective (in terms of assets) trade still available for an impactful D. Win-win.
Forum: NHL Trades1 mars 2023 à 9 h 44
Forum: NHL Trades1 mars 2023 à 9 h 29
Sujet: (TOR/WSH) - Sandin for Gustafsson, 1st (BOS)
I like this deal for Washington. Essentially moving out Orlov for a younger cheaper player with upside. That's a rebuild on the fly. I like Orlov, maybe Sandin never quite gets to that level, but he has the potential to.

The Leafs side of this deal is harder to evaluate. I think they got about as good value for Sandin as they could have, I think a 1st and currently servicable depth defensemen is a good return given what we heard was available in the summer, but I just don't get why he was moved at all. I feel like it must be because they now see him as a semi-regular healthy scratch meaning he wasn't going to be an impact on this current roster, and they were worried he would request a trade again if that happened, and wanted to get something for him before the healthy scratches and trade request torpedoed his value. In that context, this is a very smart move, but the flaw is I have no idea why he would be in danger of being a healthy scratch? Are you really playing Holl over Sandin just because of handedness? Are Timmins or Schenn really bumping him out of the starting 6?

I think the Leafs got very good value on Sandin, and I think they made the right choice if you are only keeping one of Sandin or Liljegren, I just don't know why he seemed like the odd man out in the first place. Maybe there is another move to come, but right now I would say Washinngton wins the deal, and Toronto did well as long as you buy the assumption Sandin was somehow not a lock for their top 6. I get the logic if you assume that, I just don't really understand how he's not firmly in your top 6 given the players they have.
Forum: NHL Trades1 mars 2023 à 9 h 23
Sujet: (WSH/MIN) - Johansson for 2024 3rd round pick
I think this deal is fair. A 3rd is a modest price for a modest pick up. Johansson is such a weird player in the NHL. He's managed to stick around as a journeyman bottom/middle 6 point producer. That's kind of rare. It's funny that the Leafs can spend a 3rd on a player that likely spends more games in the pressbox than on the ice, but it's ok because he hits, but spending a 3rd on player capable of putting up decent secondary offense is somehow disappointing.

Minnesota shouldn't be all in this year in my opinon. They are good, but their cap constraints in the short run make it so hard to be at their best, I like the way they have navigated this deadline. They have basically netted out to even in assets, while getting some small improvements. The West is wide open, and the team they already have is likely enough to at least be competitive in the West. I think it's an underrated strategy to realize that while your team is competitive, this just isn't the year to be all in.
Forum: NHL Trades27 févr. 2023 à 15 h 3
Sujet: (TOR/CHI) - 1st, 2nd, Anderson, Gogolev for McCabe, Lafferty, 5th, 5th
This is a good trade for the Leafs, not sure if Chicago can really be disappointed, but given the fact that both players have term, and there is retention on 2 more years of McCabe, I say the Leafs win the deal.

McCabe is the jewel here for Toronto. I am not completely convinced they needed to spend their remaining assets on D, but I do think this was the best target available for the price, and getting him for 2 years past this one at $2M gives the Leafs a bottom 4 group that rivals any in the NHL, all signed next year at a total cap hit of $5.7M. That's exceptional value.

I think the Leafs strategy seems to be compile a massive list of useful depth options so Keefe can construct a large variety of different looks. The Leafs are probably the best equipped team in the NHL to handle injuries. They have constantly juggled their lines, they don't rely on any one offensive duo or player to drive the bus, pretty much every member of the top 6 has spent some time with every other player, and they can probably construct the strongest 5th forward group and 4th D pair in the NHL. Whether or not it's the best strategy remains to be seen, but it sure seems like Dubas is betting that as long as Keefe has pretty much every type of option available to him, he can construct lines that will have success in their role against just about any opponent.

The Leafs have now spent as much to acquire McCabe, O'Reilly, Acciari, and Lafferty as New Jersey spent on Meier. It remains to be seen if the collection of players will be more impactful (personally I would rather have Meier), but the Leafs are definitely as deep as they have ever been, and I don't think there is another team as well equipped to handle the injuries that typically go along with a deep playoff run. The team has been relatively healthy this year, and probably has the biggest list of NHL calibre talent ready to go in the event of injury, or even just to come in and shake things up if things aren't clicking.

The Atlantic is going to be a gauntlet, but I think the Leafs trades represent more of an upgrade (in total) than what Boston or Tampa has been able to do so far. I don't know if it's enough, but they are definitely going for it, and I do think they have done a good job keeping that window open for the next 4-5 years by holding onto their young players and near NHL ready prospects throughout. It seems like Dubas understands the window isn't one and done, but it's also not extending for 5 or more years down the road either.
Forum: NHL Trades27 févr. 2023 à 12 h 10
Sujet: (NSH/TBL) - Jeannot for Foote, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th
This is such a good deal for Nashville. I can't imagine selling higher on player than this. Jeannot is 25, never drafted, had one season where he scored on about 20% of his shots, and Nashville gets 5 picks and a prospect for the guy.

I see a lot of hesitation to say Tampa just flat out got fleeced, but it's all based on reverence for what they have done in the past, but also for the simple reality that they can make this deal, and still go on a run because their roster is excellent. People hate looking wrong, but Tampa doing well in these playoffs doesn't make this less of an overpay. I just don't see how you get to this level of cost for a player like Jeannot. Every team would love to have him on their 4th line, but this was a cost you pay for a big time difference maker, and Jeannot isn't that. Players like Jeannot get overrated a lot, but it's a lot of revisionist history. The story always folds out the same, if Tampa wins, there will be a Jeannot hit that everyone says was "the turning point". In reality, Jeannot just hits so frequently, that at any point Tampa gains momentum, there is a good chance it's a few plays after a Jeannot hit, and everyone will just give him all the credit, but chances it's just two things happening at the same time.

Also, I don't buy the talk about how this is similar to the Coleman, Goodrow and Hagel trades. All those deals got players with low cap hits with term. Also, Coleman and Hagel are significantly more impactful players than Jeannot.
Forum: NHL Trades27 févr. 2023 à 11 h 30
Sujet: (SJS/NJD) - Meier, Harrington, Ibragimov, Hatakka, Émond for Mukhamadullin, Okhotiuk, Johnsson, Zetterlund
This is a mess of a trade to read through. Jersey takes the W here, no questions. Given they didn't move their very top prospects (depends a little on who you ask but consensus is at least not their top), and the conditions on the picks, I think the worst case for Jersey here is they bow out in the 1st or 2nd round, trade Meier for at least a 1st + later pick at the draft, this is an inexpensive rental. If they sign an extension at any number less than $10M, they win the trade immediately because players this good don't come around via trade very often.

Sharks really don't get as much here as you would hope from a player of Meier's age and ability. New Jersey now has gone from a nice surprise season to announcing their are a perennial contender in a pretty short amount of time.

Great trade for the Devils, sharks fans are probably a bit disappointed after all the speculation and healthy scratches.
Forum: NHL Trades27 févr. 2023 à 11 h 23
Sujet: (BOS/WSH) - 1st, 2nd, 3rd, Smith for Hathaway, Orlov
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>McGruff</b></div><div>It was not a wise move - but Jake was really good pick (proving one 1st rd quality pick or two is enough. Should have picked one or two players or moved up/down using the draft-pick capital; armchair experts we are)

Reality is Carlo was a great find in Rd-2, previous year Pasta was the best pick overall, next to Leon, at #25 and McAvoy was a gem in 2016 #14 and here we are, BOS is #1 in the NHL...

Fact of the matter is IF BOS selected Jake-Connor-Barzal they'd have traded one or two by now with COVID/flat cap $$$ issues.</div></div>

Yes, Boston has done extremely well in drafts. Carlo was decent, but with the depth of the 2015 draft he wasn't enough to sway it into being a good draft for Boston considering their draft capital and the skill available.

However the McAvoy and Pastrnak picks were franchise altering. Basically getting players that are better than the average top 3 pick in most drafts, and likely would both be in contention for 2nd overall if they did redrafts in both years. Pastrnak would actually be my pick for 1st overall in 2014, even over Draisatl. So the Bruins have hit absolute home runs in drafts and it's a big part of the reason why they are still such a good team today, however that drafting record on either side of the 2015 draft is what makes the 2015 draft such a disappointment given the picks they had available.
Forum: NHL Trades26 févr. 2023 à 16 h 31
Sujet: (BOS/WSH) - 1st, 2nd, 3rd, Smith for Hathaway, Orlov
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>McGruff</b></div><div>"embarrassing haul with 3 picks in 2015,"

DeBrusk has 3Gs (one a GWG) in three games back from injury &amp; was on-pace for a 30-30 season - bum!. Moreover, he's had more playoff success than any other 2015 draft classmen (except Rantanen).
* Barzal - was one knee injury away from being an Accountant (BOS has a history w/ knees so can see the pass justification there).
* Chabot/Zboril were somewhat equally rated at the draft. Zboril played last night so making the "show" is not something I've done...
* <strong>K Connor</strong> was the guy BOS should have taken and didn't...hindsight makes me so smart there w/ that pick nugget.

ZS was off the board - 110% miss 4-sure...

Round 2: Carlo was a home run...</div></div>

Honestly it was meant to be a little tounge and cheek, I don't think a bad draft means they don't have any good scouts, but it isn't really up for debate that the Bruins didn't make out very well for having 3 straight picks in a historically deep draft.

Debrusk was their best pick, and he was a very average 1st rounder in that draft. Debrusk is a good player, he has 361 career games played, 111 goals, 100 assists for 211 career points. The average output of the 27 players the Bruins didn't select was 353 games played, 89 goals, 145 assists, for 234 career points. Removing McDavid (as he does skew the averages a bit), still gives you 346 games played, 82 goals, 131 assists, and 213 points.

The Bruins 3 selections in the first round of that draft combined for a total of 446 games played (so far), 113 goals, 114 assists, 227 points.

The average output of the other 27 selections in the first round was 353 games played, 89 goals, 145 assists, for 235 points, but even removing McDavid (which does skew the stats), leads to 346 games played, 82 goals, 131 assists, and 213 points.

When looking at the fact that the Bruins had 3 selections, and their average yield on those was 149 NHL games, 38 goals, 38 assists for 76 points, and we compare that to what the average player from that draft did, it's a really weak return.

Even after removing the entire top 10, the the other 17 first rounder averaged 286 GP, 64G, 93A, 157pts. But where it gets really obvious, is just averaging out the portion of the 1st round the Bruins could have selected (picks 16-30), who averaged 281GP, 64G, 97A, 161Pts. The Bruins made 3 straight picks, and those picks, on average, produced less than the next 15 skaters chosen.

No matter how you slice it, it's a draft the Bruins would like to have back. Saying they should have picked say Barzal, Connor and Chabot next may be a bit of hindsight, but it is fair to say their results were extremely disappointing given the depth of that draft.
Forum: NHL Trades24 févr. 2023 à 13 h 33
Sujet: (BOS/WSH) - 1st, 2nd, 3rd, Smith for Hathaway, Orlov
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Koskinen_The_Great</b></div><div>Its at best 27 OA in the 1st rnd. That is a late pick. Who cares? They managed to dump Smith's cap hit and get two major pieces for futures that have less than 50% chance of even being effective nhl regulars. They did that instead of pay a 1st plus for Gavrikov whom isnt close to as steady as Orlov.</div></div>

Well if you draft the way Boston did in the last draft that was considered extremely deep, probably best to just punt your picks anyway, but a late first isn't nothing, and with this shaping up to be a deep draft, having multiple firsts could be franchise altering.

I think this was absolutely a good move for Boston, and jokes aside, not just because of their embarrassing haul with 3 picks in 2015, but just the reality of how important it is to maximize their odds in what could be the final season of them being a powerhouse, but I don't get why people are minimizing the value of picks.

Picks are valuable, but it can still make sense for teams to trade them. Both can be true at the same time. You don't need to think picks are worthless to think Boston made a good trade, and you don't need to think they guarantee star players to think Washington made the right move by getting some picks for a UFA they may not be able to afford in a year where they don't seem likely to make the playoffs.

It's just a good trade where both teams had valuable assets that were probably a little more valuable to the other team, so they traded. Doesn't need to be anything other than that.

I would agree on the Gavirkov comment though, that's Chiarot 2.0 waiting to happen. He's what people think a good defensemen plays like, Orlov is much closer to what people seem to think Gavrikov is.
Forum: NHL Trades24 févr. 2023 à 8 h 2
Sujet: (BOS/WSH) - 1st, 2nd, 3rd, Smith for Hathaway, Orlov
So this trade is basically the mirror image of the O'Reilly trade. Cost is nearly identical, and they even used the same broker for the cap hit. It's even mirrored in the fact that neither team figured to be sellers at the beginning of the year, and there is even a young, better non-rental player available at a similar position that they decided cost to much (Chyrcun in Orlov's case, Meier in O'Reilly's), and just like Toronto, Boston literally covers their biggest needs.

So just like the O'Reilly trade, I think it was a shrewd move by Washington to get great assets for a player that may walk away. This deal is a little close to the "fair deal" because Washington isn't as far out of the playoffs as the Blues were, and Boston's window is literally now, so the draft capital should be considered a little more expendable. They also get the player that is a little more of a sure thing, as he has been just steadily very good. His peak isn't what O'Reilly's was, but he was playing better this season that O'Reilly was, so it's definitely a little more of a sure thing.

Been a busy trade season, hope it keeps up.
Forum: NHL Trades21 févr. 2023 à 9 h 17
Sujet: (STL/MIN/TOR) - O'Reilly, Acciari for Pillar for Abramov, Gaudette, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Blues "win" this deal for sure. Armstrong might be one of the best GMs in the NHL at understanding where his team is at, and maximizing assets on UFAs when he knows his team isn't really in contention. He also seems to understand that assets you didn't acquire are just as harmful as assets you spend. He has other decisions that tend to be more questionable, but once he has decided his roster isn't a real cup threat, he doesn't beat around the bush with his UFAs, and now he has 3 firsts in a draft that could be franchise altering. I am no scout, but if this upcoming draft is actually as deep as say the 2003 NHL entry draft, 3 picks in the first found can end up creating a big chunk of a new young core to move forward with.

The Leafs didn't do terribly here either, they did get some valuable pieces, and they did trade away picks rather than near-NHL ready prospects as they understand the window is open, but it isn't one and done. Knies, Minten, Niemela could be useful players for them in very short order simply by being on ELCs and likely bridge deals at under their on ice value after that, and this team will need that to keep it's window wide opened. The big knock here is that this deal depends on a player that clearly isn't in his prime anymore, and there is a pretty wide range of what that might mean. It's fair to assume that some part of his decline is age related, and some is the impact of playing on a team that isn't that great, the tricky part is that this trade being good or bad will depend on how much each of those impacted O'Reilly's play, because if they just get more of what he looked to be so far this year in St. Louis, this will have been too expensive. So the deal has risks.
Forum: NHL Signings16 févr. 2023 à 13 h 25
Sujet: Detroit Red Wings signed Olli Määttä (2 Years / $3,000,000 AAV)
Maatta seems fine right now in Detroit, but he's a journeymen D who has bounced around a bit recently, and seems like a fit as a 3rd pair guy who can slide up when needed on a contender.

Right now he's Detroit's 4th most used defender (on a per game basis), but their D is still collectively awful, so you would think he really needs to slot down further if they brought in the appropriate talent to slot everyone appropriately. $3M for a 3rd pair D isn't an ideal use of cap space for a young team. It's 2 years, it won't be a deal that ever derails the rebuild entirely, and they need someone to hold them over, but I think the ceiling for this deal is mild overpay to be honest.

Reality is, until the end of the 2024-25 season, Detroit has committed more than $7M to two D that are best suited for the bottom pair. That seems like some pretty significant wasted cap space.
Forum: NHL Signings15 févr. 2023 à 15 h 1
Sujet: Los Angeles Kings signed Michael Anderson (8 Years / $4,125,000 AAV)
This kind of reminds me of the Pesce deal. Looks to be pretty fair value in AAV, and you are basically just buying all of the most expensive years now, and the biggest win comes with having this deal locked in while the cap rises. I find this sort of deal works best on D, because having some consistency and cost certainty when filling in your top 4 is just super useful. At this price, as long as Anderson fits into the top 4, it's at worst fine, and at best a solid bit of surplus value.

Biggest risk is that Anderson is a one dimensional player, and one dimensional players tend to be a bit more volatile, so if his defensive game slips, it becomes more noticable, since that was the only area that he provided value in the first place. It's a risk worth taking, and I think the AAV reflects the risk, so there is likely more room for upside then there is downside from LAs point of view, but it's worth pointing out.
Forum: NHL Signings13 févr. 2023 à 7 h 57
Sujet: Montreal Canadiens signed Jordan Harris (2 Years / $1,400,000 AAV)
It's a good signing. These are getting boing cause it just feels like a mold for young D right now.

Are you a defensemen drafted in the last 5 years, within the first 4 rounds who currently is playing solid minutes in the NHL? Then come work for our team at an annual salary of about $1.4M for 2 years. If your progress has been a little less steady or you have an injury history, we take back a few hundred thousand, if your progress has been steadily increasing your value or you had a bit of a breakout year, you get an extra few hundred thousand.

I think NHL GMs have a secret agreement that young D are kind of hard to evaluate so let's just pay them all something similar to make all of our lives easier. No more betting on upside with long contracts out of ELC unless they do something like win a Norris or at least get nominated.
Forum: NHL Signings10 févr. 2023 à 10 h 41
Sujet: Toronto Maple Leafs signed Conor Timmins (2 Years / $1,100,000 AAV)
Good signing. Extra year here is the key. They are buying some upside, as he has looked like his potential might be a bit more than bottom pairing D. That term gets thrown around, but the way I look at it is, if Timmins is capable of playing top 4 on a mediocre team, but a contender would want him to be a #5, basically a bottom pair guy that slides up and fills in admirably during injuries, slumps etc, then this is a great value for that player. If he isn't that player, this isn't an overpay for a pure 3rd pair guy, and if he slides further, he can be fully buried.

He is young, and missed out on important developmental years, so if he really continues to develop, the 2nd year of this deal has some decent value, even if it's trade value.
Forum: NHL Signings8 févr. 2023 à 8 h 53
Sujet: Buffalo Sabres signed Dylan Cozens (7 Years / $7,100,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drizzt</b></div><div>A steal after one half og a good season... If he continues like this then i would say it could be a steal this year already... This can be a good deal and also it can still be a bad deal for the team.</div></div>

You can say this about every single contract ever signed, saying "it could be bad" is redundant, because every contract carries that exact risk. GMs used to (some still do this a lot.. cough... Lou... cough) want to wait for longer track records before a player can be paid, but due to aging curves, by the time a player "earned" a long contract, they were at an age that they almost certainly couldn't live up to that contract going forward.

Cozens has developed very nicely, was a high draft pick, so he didn't come out of nowhere, and in Buffalo, he isn't being carried by line mates. His underlying numbers support that he's actually driving the value of his production, and based on his age, you are buying the years that are most likely to be his most valuable. Given UFAs are getting on the open market still, his production doesn't need to be elite to justify his contract, and if we haven't yet seen his best, this is a mega steal.

There is still risk in this deal, like every contract, but this is a very smart bet, and the type of bet that if you make it over and over, you are going to come up with far more winners than losers.
Forum: NHL Signings6 févr. 2023 à 8 h 44
Sujet: New York Islanders signed Bo Horvat (8 Years / $8,500,000 AAV)
This deal is likely going to be rough. I know people think this somehow alters the value of the trade, but honestly I think it makes it worse, as this contract has a strong chance to age like Milk.

Horvat is a very good player, but he's having a career year at 27, and the 8.5M AAV won't be bad for a few years necessarily, but he's probably not outplaying it by much, and those later years didn't bring the AAV down nearly enough. What's worse is that this seems to be a big bet that he and Barzal will have instant chemistry and completely change the Islanders ability to create offense at 5 on 5 and on the powerplay. Horvat isn't a driver of offense, and he's going from a team that had more offensive talent surrounding him that he is going to have now, playing an offense-first style, and who was still pretty mediocre offensively, to a team where he's now going to have to be the complete focus of the attack in a tougher conference. What makes this trade bad is that Horvat could play at the higher end of his reasonable expectations, and this trade is still awful. He basically needs to be a 50+ goal center for the foreseeable future for this to be remotely acceptable. Lou seemingly paid a lot of assets to get a jump on the market, and this is the deal he gets from that?