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Lets Go Blues
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Forum: Armchair-GM14 déc. 2023 à 18 h 59
Sujet: Thoughts on Drew Bannister Lines Pre Debut
Not gonna be overcritical of Bannister on day one but I really don't like these lines. Buch-Thomas-Neighbours works well and allows Kyrou to be the primary puck carrier (if he'd get his head out of his rear) on the other scoring line. I've never liked Buch-Thomas-Kyrou. Even if it works, it leaves the other lines high and dry. Also nothing against Toropchenko but he's a 4th liner - been his profile ever since junior and he's good at it. Not sure why the Blues keep trying to juice him up on the 3rd line, especially when a guy like Alexandrov or Sunny fits the role a lot better imo. Defense is just gonna be bad no matter how you try to pair these guys up but Perunovich at least provides some offense versus Tucker who provides nothing (unless he's gonna drop the gloves).
Forum: Armchair-GM4 déc. 2023 à 14 h 18
Sujet: Will Snuggerud and Dvo Leapfrog Bolduc and Dean
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>I think you’re taking it a bit too literally. But yes, it’s going to be extremely hard to replicate. I think what Army was getting at was moreso having a short term turnaround 3-4 years versus 7-8. The odd thing about the Kings is yes they did bottom out. But I don’t think you can look at the players they bottomed out and got and say they’re the reason things turned around for LAK.

I’m interested to see what their contract structure looked like</div></div>

My take: Regardless of how short you want a rebuild to be, you need to add cornerstone pieces from the top of the draft. I don't think the long rebuilds are ever on purpose. No GM is ever saying "we're gonna tear it all down and maybe in 8-10 yrs we'll have a good team again". Maybe they can't find the culture shift back to winning, but the way I see it, 'winning culture' doesn't matter in this league until you've got top talent at the key positions. And other than some pure luck/randomness the only way to get it is at the top of the draft. 15 of 17 championship teams of the cap era (oh the irony that one of them is the Blues built by DA) has had a player they drafted 1 or 2 overall. So if you're gonna rebuild, don't take half measures and think it will make it go quicker.
Forum: Armchair-GM4 déc. 2023 à 13 h 47
Sujet: Will Snuggerud and Dvo Leapfrog Bolduc and Dean
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheEarthmaster</b></div><div>I mean this is a problem that stems from the Blues inability to pick a direction and these self imposed rules that Armstrong/Blues ownership is insistent on. If they're going to be bad they should trade Parayko (and Faulk, and Buchnevich, and Binnington, and probably every other good player over 27). If they're going to be good they need to be clearing out their guys that aren't producing and using their TDL haul to improve the team. They did neither, and so now they're like a team that's mostly making hay on Binnington playing well and Jake Neighbours shooting 28%. Might make the playoffs (which, honestly, is probably all they care about for that sweet sweet home game playoff revenue) but you're just banking on Cinderella runs that more often than not fall short anyway, not building a real contender.

And I get that Armstrong checked in on Timo Meier and tried to ship Krug out with one of the 1sts (not convinced that the latter would have necessarily been a good move and also Timo Meier has been terrible this year) but at the end of the day he didn't pull either of those or anything else of note off so...stuck in the middle it is.


Sorry for staking up comments here I came like twenty minutes late to the party.</div></div>

What is frustrating to me is when Army says he wants to replicate the LA rebuild. Except:
1 - their fading/aging talents (Kopitar, Doughty) are a lot better players than ours (Schenn, Parayko). It's a lesser gamble to count on the mid-30s of elite players.
2 - their draft picks were 5oa, 2oa (4oa before lotto), 8oa when they bottomed out. Does Army think 10oa-25oa-29oa last year was good enough to start the turnaround? If not, why did he build a team to try to get 85-90 pts?
3 - they found Fiala just like we found Buch, but we got Buch too early in the timeline and his impact on the future, rebuilt team is in limbo. Fiala's entire prime will be spent with the rebuilt team.
Forum: Armchair-GM4 déc. 2023 à 12 h 52
Sujet: Will Snuggerud and Dvo Leapfrog Bolduc and Dean
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>Would this be a pretty good team though?

We have 4 guys playing at over a .5ppg mark. Thomas has been extremely good this season, he's played matchups and has produced offensively. Buch is Buch. Kyrou is barely over .5ppg, Schenn is also barely at it.

As much as we have issues on the backend and probably some of our scoring issues comes from poor breakout passes it's hard not to overlook our glaring hole of secondary scoring. Now alot of the lower point totals can be accounted for due to our anemic PP. But as of right now we really only have 4 top 6 players and Schenn is pretty borderline there at the moment (more or less shouldn't be a key cog of a line).

Proposing buyouts would help with clearing cap space for the next couple of years but it also handcuffs you down the line.

I don't think Krug drags down Faulk. Tbh I don't think Faulk is that good defensively. He has some ability to play in his own zone, but too often he gets caught over anticipating or not seeing a play. Krug certainly doesn't help/ but i wouldn't say he's the sole root of that d pair giving up alot of chances with heavily sheltered minutes.

I will agree with you that Leddy drags down Parayko. It seems like 75% of the goals against that pair are as a result of Colt trying to cover for Leddy. It's extremely tough deployment regardless, I think if you slotted him in with Faulk you'll see much better results and wont have to shelter that pair as much easing the burden on a Parayko pair.

TLDR: We aren't a pretty good team. We have good goaltending that was red hot at the beginning of the season. We have some pieces. But we have alot of holes that aren't ready to be adressed in the next year or two do to lack of cap, and lack of players nipping at the heels to get into the spots. There's no reason to spread out the pain versus just staying the course until we can fix the problem currectly.</div></div>

All I'm saying is it would be a lot better team with an actually good partner for Parayko and a balanced 2nd pairing that you could throw out in more situations. I agree that we're not good enough currently but I really don't want to see the same D again next year... and the next year, and.. (I didn't want to see them this year!). Obviously the more years we can get through before making changes on D the better, but I also don't think we have any internal pieces that are coming in to fix things on D when the current guys finally leave. Buchinger prob gets the Walman treatment where they neuter him into a robot and then trade him. Lindstein will take 3+ years just to be Carl Gunnarsson 2.0.
Forum: Armchair-GM4 déc. 2023 à 12 h 19
Sujet: Will Snuggerud and Dvo Leapfrog Bolduc and Dean
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>What do you mean leapfrog? DD and Snuggs are already more highly rated than Dean and Bolduc. Do you mean on the timeline? Because Dvorsky probably won't be ready by next October. Snuggs is more likely.

All that said, I think you need to not sleep on Bolduc, who seems to be figuring it out already in the A. He's got 2g 3a with a +3 in the last five games.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>STLBlues17</b></div><div>They already have. Although… I’m wondering if Bolduc gets some games this year. They haven’t called up anyone all season despite obvious need and I wonder if they’re just waiting for a prospect to start taking off and earn the spot.</div></div>

Yeah fellas... sorry I meant that they could make the NHL roster before Dean and Duc. And fwiw I don't consider another year in the AHL as a "failure" or "bust". The T-birds are using Walker-Peca-Gaudette for all the heavy lifting right now. Maybe next year could allow for more opportunity for the younger guys in AHL.

Edit: and I should explain, with Dvorsky the question as I understand it is OHL vs NHL next year. I think he'll make enough strides between now and then to make the team but we'll see. Always a headache with the 19 yr olds and the CHL agreement. Does he really need to go be a 2ppg in Sudbury next year? He already looks like he's gonna graduate from that league IMO.
Forum: Armchair-GM4 déc. 2023 à 12 h 16
Sujet: Will Snuggerud and Dvo Leapfrog Bolduc and Dean
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>There is no reason to buyout Leddy.

- Dvorsky/Snuggerud leapfrogging- Possible sure. They also have been much higher regarded prospects. Could see Snuggerud sticking in the NHL at the beginning of next season if he signs after this NCAA season. Dvorsky i'd venture to guess will be a year after next situation. I think the hope was have him play in the SHL this season and come over and help the Blues next year. With the setback i'm not sure they'll jump him from OHL to NHL.

Have to remember in terms of Dean/Bolduc they also just turned Pro. There's alot of figuring out how to go about it for them right now. Look at Neighbors last year vs Neighbors this year. There's alot of growing to do moving up from the CHL.

Also if we have this much cap space it would be very dumb to buyout Krug and/or Leddy.</div></div>

I would genuinely pay double their buy outs to have them play for another team. When you consider how lousy they are and how much strain they put on their partners, they ruin what would be a pretty good team. I don't think Army will buy out either but as we saw last offseason w/ the NTCs he really has no other way to transform the D.
Forum: Armchair-GM29 nov. 2023 à 20 h 22
Sujet: Blues fans thoughts on the season
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>STLBlues17</b></div><div>I’m kind of enjoying this season haha. Thomas looks like he is back to being a top-15 C, Kyrou has awesome underlying numbers (he won’t shoot 5% forever,) Buchnevich is still Buchnevich, Neighbours is starting to breakout, Perunovich has looked like a stud. Everyone who you would want to play well is playing well. Sure the team is deeply flawed, but they’re interesting enough to make me excited for every time they take the ice.</div></div>

I’ve been trying to find this optimism but man they are so hard to watch most nights and you just know they’re gonna finish like 1 pt out of the playoffs and draft someone “safe” 16th overall and do it all over again. Thomas has been getting better and better as the season is going so that’s nice. And I do think kyrou will pick it up. But this should be the rock bottom season imo. Trade the UFAs, trade buch a la matt duchene in Colorado. Bottom out and get a top5 pick, free up some money in the off-season, clean up the defense.
Forum: Armchair-GM29 nov. 2023 à 14 h 43
Sujet: Blues in 5 years
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>Even though we did draft a boat load of LHDs and have quite a few in the system I think we have to keep trying until a guy cements himself as a top 4 guy. I think Lindstein is going to be a nice complimentary 2nd pairing guy which is completely fine. Other guys it's really hard to tell.

Pekarcik reminds me alot of a guy like Toropchenko. Big fast, bull in a china shop type player who has some skill, but probably not enough of it to be in the top 6. Good 3rd/4th liner as long as they keep the bull in a china shop mentality and keep the motor high.

Buchinger is the one in our current system who i think actually has a decent chance to be a long term NHLer on defense.

Tucker seems a bit to slow but his compete level is good enough to keep him regularly somewhere in the NHL for a while as depth.
Perunovich just lost soo much time with injuries. I think if he's willing to take low salary deals he'll be a player, but more so in the role of a bottom pairing guy who can run a powerplay really well - more or less Torey Krug.
Gaudet/Burns/Fischer admittedly I don't think i'm too familiar with them to make a sure judgement. Gaudet seems more like a vanilla defender who may get some time like Kessel currently but who knows.

As far as projecting. It's borderline impossible to, but i'd imagine at least 1 or 2 of our top end forward prospects Neighbors included (Neighbors, Bolduc, Dean, Stenberg,Dvorsky, Snuggerud) don't work out. But that's completely fine with that we will get more prospects over the years to fill the gaps. But the one thing I find interesting is going through and looking at the current roster/other rosters around the league and seeing how few drafted players see sustained time with a team or at least show on their roster after 3-4 years of the ELC expiring.</div></div>

I agree with you that we gotta be realistic about how many of the current prospects are going to be true top six forwards... it may be even lower that what you're imagining...
Snuggerud and Dvorsky, to me, are the most sure-fire top six guys - undeniable NHL shot and compete - but they've also created a little bit of doubt with their inconsistencies in production (yes it's too early to judge)
Bolduc played a great all-around game in juniors but watching him vs pros it's hard to see how he will make that part of his identity - he may be more of a PP threat/sheltered 3rd line guy but likely an NHLer.
Dean was always tracking as a bottom six C aside from an insane playoff heater in the Q (as a 20 yr old fwiw).
Neighbours may always be the 3rd guy on his line but still has promise as being that guy on a scoring line which helps.
Stenberg is an unknown for me. I'm hoping he turns out like Steen where he can be relied on for steady play in any deployment. (Remember when they let him loose and he had 33 goals that one year?!)
Pekarcik has a loooong way to go - he was only like 3 days away from being 2024 eligible - but I've seen some nice flashes from him.

So yeah, I hope they all pan out but realistically we could be looking at 2-3 impact guys. Luckily, there should be money to spend on outside acquisitions, and like you said all the teams have to make tough decisions on who to keep and who to move. Here's to hoping we get better pro scouting than the guys who liked Krug and Leddy more than Dunn and Walman.
Forum: Armchair-GM29 nov. 2023 à 14 h 18
Sujet: Blues in 5 years
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>STLBlues17</b></div><div>I’m thinking we need to turn some of these prospects into legit good nhl players. Kind of wish we did it last year with Meier and chychrun even though I was against it at the time.</div></div>

I was hoping for Hampus Lindholm in 2022 and then for Chychrun in 2023 but at this point I'm onboard with a slower turnaround. Maybe a guy like Hanifin or Chychrun (next year) wants to sign here as a UFA? I'd be all for that once we can send Krug/Leddy packing, but idk if now is the time to be adding. Team is way too inconsistent and lots of teams will be gunning for playoffs this year so I'd expect a seller's market at the deadline.

Now with that said, I don't think trading guys like Stenberg/Lindstein/Bolduc - really anyone but Dvo or Snuggerud - would bite us if we could get proven young players with term, but there is some difficult shuffling required to make it happen (no trade clauses galore!), and guys that fit that mold rarely become available. Who would you be looking at? And would you trade our 2024 1st to get it done bc to me that's off the table, even if it was protected.
Forum: Armchair-GM29 nov. 2023 à 12 h 29
Forum: Armchair-GM27 nov. 2023 à 13 h 45
Sujet: 20 game progress report
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>You left out the 3.5M in retention over two seasons, which is not free. And he's not a "1-2 year rental". He has 20 regular season games short of two seasons, including two playoff runs. The B+ prospect is not bad, but he's the wrong type at the wrong position. And like retention, "cap ballast" is also not free. This is far from a suitable offer.</div></div>

Just assume it's at the deadline and then maybe they don't have to retain based on the deadline cap rules, that would be nice.

Hard disagree on prospect needs. There are no RHD in the system that show any real promise. Yes Brz is an offensive-minded guy in juniors but there is plenty to like in his game that could translate to being a reliable two-way guy for a 2nd pairing. You can give him another year in the OHL to round out his game, a year in the AHL after that, and if he's ready he slots in on the bottom pair for a year and then replaces Faulk the year after. Badly needed IMO.