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A_K

Lets Go Blues
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30 juin 2016
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Blues de St-Louis
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Forum: Armchair-GM18 avr. à 13 h 18
Sujet: More ReTool
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_K</b></div><div>To be honest there's so many different things going on with this team right now that I can't tell what direction is the right way to go. Hopefully Doug chooses one.

By my assessment though, rougher goaltending would've made this season the low-water mark. Now that might still happen this-coming year - with or without a Binner/Hofer combo (goaltending can be fickle). As exciting and promising as some of the younger guys are, they're not all here yet. And the veterans are just getting another year older, slower, etc. Wouldn't be the worst thing to be patient for another year and try to make some low-risk, high-reward moves to set up for the future.</div></div>

I’m more concerned about the Kyrou and Thomas iteration of the core. I’d consider those two and Parayko the core currently.

I think the most beneficial thing we could do would be to add a solid defenseman in the 24-27 age range. However in order to do that, we’re going to have to cut bait with either Krug or Faulk which I don’t think is a huge deal.

Ultimately I think the plan will be to middle out like this while contracts expire and then once they do make a large splash with a UFA defenseman if we can’t find one before. The issue with that is it’s rare those higher end caliber defenseman hit UFA status, because as we can all see, when you let one go you create a massive problem trying to stop gap or piece together the hole that’s left behind.

It’s definitely not a perfect plan, but there really is no perfect plan. I’d imagine we try and find a way to address a 2nd line center and move out a defenseman in hopes of adding another that can profile to be more of a two-way guy than we currently have.

I’d be shocked if our first pick in this draft was a forward, but there’s certainly an avenue where that could happen.

Truthfully I know it’s very unlikely, but I would move our 1st if we could get a guy like Harley out of Dallas.
Forum: Armchair-GM17 avr. à 14 h 35
Sujet: Markstrom Hayes and trading down
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_K</b></div><div>Any reason you think the Devils would trade down? Seems like a year where the top 10-12 are looking a lot more promising than the next tier of guys. I know I wish the Blues would've done a little more losing to secure that top10 spot.</div></div>

I think they want some additional tradeable assets to fill some holes and add depth. They are likely adding some bottom-line forwards, a 5/6 LHD, maybe a 3C and perhaps a goalie. Many of those pieces wouldn’t require a 1st.

Also, from the sound of it, some of the guys they could be looking at in draft appear like middle-first round types (ie, some of the power forward like Greentree, MBN, etc).

Seems plausible they would entertain moving from #10 to mid-teens and add some picks.
Forum: Armchair-GM4 avr. à 19 h 42
Sujet: Quietly the Worst Season Possible
Great points. I think the positive outcome from this year is that we should have a better idea of where we want to go in the near future. If this cast could not get us back to the playoffs then clearly Armstrong has work to do to make things work out again. I think we need to move Buchnevich this offseason. And then unfortunately I think we should tank and have the kids play next year. We have more opportunities to make moves when all these NTCs become M-NTCs in the 2025 offseason. I think we need to focus on what’s coming up in the system and who we want our core to be centered around in the future.

Centers: Thomas and Dvorsky
Wingers: Snuggerud, Neighbours, Kyrou and Keller/Tkachuk (sign one of them in 2028 offseason)
Depth forwards: Bolduc, Dean, and Stenberg
Defense: Parayko and Lindstein
Goalie: Hofer

Let’s make a decision on Kyrou, let’s get some assets for Buchnevich. Lets make smart free agency signings. Draft some more promising guys.
Forum: Armchair-GM4 avr. à 15 h 12
Sujet: Quietly the Worst Season Possible
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_K</b></div><div>re: Thomas and Kyrou, I don't think there is anything wrong with them, but this re-tool season was a great chance for them really blast off. Instead we've got Kyrou slumping early and fans turning on him as the coach killer and Thomas - right when the narrative began that he's killing it as "the guy" - with 1 even strength point since March 1st. IMO they don't have the "still young" tag to lean on. They're making the most money and are in the prime age for production. What they've shown me this season is that Kyrou probably isn't going to be the 2nd best F on a contending team. Maybe Thomas can be the 1C on a deep enough team. But if these guys are going to be our best players, we need to find equal or better quality out of the prospects in the system to surround them. Not just a supporting cast.</div></div>

I agree with you mostly. I think that Blues Hockey requires depth (at least 3 scoring lines). Blues dont have that. I have a feeling their trying to replenish that depth, which theyve done and well see that come into view soon hopefully.
Forum: Armchair-GM11 mars à 12 h 54
Forum: Armchair-GM29 févr. à 18 h 25
Sujet: BLAME ARMSTRONG
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>I dont love the Krug signing now, and I didn't love the Krug signing then. But the coaching staff that we had at the time very clearly did not trust Dunn in the defensive zone

in terms of Walman, he didn't get much of a shake sure, but he wasn't exactly flawless and didn't exactly provide much.

But in regards to the same coaching staff that forcefed Tucker and Kessel 2nd pairing minutes it's not at all comparable.

Look there's many things that I don't agree with that Armstrong has done. But this franchise has been in an extremely good spot for a pretty long time under his reigns.</div></div>

1 - Which was silly. Very. And a grave mistake by the coaching staff.

2 - I don't agree with that. And his fantastic tools were readily apparent. Just another silly miscalculation by the coaches.

3 - Maybe it's not exact, but it's not wildly different, either. And any way you slice it Dunn and Walman were WORLDS better than Tucker and Kessel, with far higher ceilings. That's not comparable, either.

4 - Yeah, until he let his ego get in the way for a couple years.
Forum: Armchair-GM29 févr. à 17 h 30
Sujet: BLAME ARMSTRONG
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_K</b></div><div>Alright I should’ve left out the part out about the prospects. You’re approaching this with way too level of a head and I was steaming red enough to rant about it on here lol. Stenberg has plenty of runway, so does Lindstein. I just wouldn’t have complained if they went something like Musty and Gulyayev who I think have much more talent to work with if they can put it all together. My real gripe is with the later picks but that’s always a crap shoot.

I understand your argument about how you can’t have long leashes with players when the team is competitive but I just don’t see how the guys he brought in were the correct answers. He fumbled the defense and it forced him to retool quicker than he should have. Now I worry that his retool isn’t going to work and we’ll stay stuck in mediocrity. But hey this is what we’ve got so let’s see how it goes.</div></div>

Musty and Gulyayev aren't perfect by any means, but there's certainly scenarios in which they turn out to be a better pair of picks. But it's a crapshoot. I think there was alot more familiarity with Steen coming into the staff with the two we selected and by no means are they bad picks in that range.

I'd agree the defense has been fumbled. But there's alot of very explainable reasons as to why. Now if we get into another situation in which we have a trade lined up for Krug and he blocks it I will be lost without words on Army's philosophy of not handing out NMCs. It's probably frowned upon, but the only realistic situation in which I can understand the philosophy of it is being able to strongarm a trade through if it needs to happen by the threat of waivers. Regardless playing semantics with a player like Pietrangelo was an incredibly dumb decision.

I don't understand at all the trade for Faulk. We still had Pietrangelo at that time, what were we looking for insurance in the event that Pietrangelo didn't re-sign to at least give us a formidable (assumed) top 4 in that event? We didn't give up all that much for him, but the fit didn't make sense unless he was very certain he wasn't going to be able to get Pietrangelo to re-sign.

Signing Krug - I somewhat understand, don't love, but understand. He was one of the best PPQBs in the league at that time and he hadn't been a large drag defensively playing for Boston. I never imagined that what that would lead to would be trying to push Parayko as the heir apparent to be the #1 D in St. Louis while handcuffing him with bottom pairing defenseman against top lines for a large majority of the game and expecting that to go well. I'll just transition this into Dunn in terms of protection - I didn't expect Seattle to pass on Tarasenko for him. He was effective but also very mistake prone with us but you saw the skill and bite that could very easily translate. If you're trying to win a cup though i'm taking the guy who was quarterbacked the team you had just beat in the Cup over him though. I thought they'd give alot more of a runway to pairing him with Parayko like he was paired with Carlo and it was at least exciting on paper. Not sure if the reasoning for that not being a thing was a distrust in Faulk defensively or a distrust of Krug to be able to handle the minutes.

Trading for Leddy - See above in post with Mokumboi. I can understand that, they certainly paid alot more than i would've been willing to pay for that trade, but my biggest qualm with the trade wasn't Walman going back the other way.

One other thing I can't seem to understand is doubling down on the mistake they had made with Scandella with Leddy after a short sample size. Fairly similar deals, the first one didn't turn out well, so they try it with a different player who isn't much higher of a caliber and expect it to turn out better after another small sample size in which it looks successful.
Forum: Armchair-GM29 févr. à 14 h 55
Sujet: BLAME ARMSTRONG
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_K</b></div><div>Ok, if they just made better decisions with the puck, they'd be good. Unfortunately the summation of puck decisions is what equates to the quality of the player, and that's hard to change.

Regardless of how hopeful you are that the roster can transition into something better, is it unfair to say that the GM galaxy-brained the last 5 years? Is he not allowed to receive criticism for his terrible contracts? A rebuild/retool/re-whatever - that was always going to happen in the "window" world that the cap produces - would be much easier if there wasn't a massive amount of money owed to under-performers.</div></div>

1 - The problem with your viewpoint on this is almost all of these players have previously made good puck decisions. Sometimes excellent. They've done it before. They know how. They're not executing, not focusing, whatever. They can do better with this important part of the game. So yes, if puck decisions get smart again, they will be a better team with better results and better analytics and better everything. More goals, fewer goals against. The best D is wearing teams out down in their corners etc etc. The whole system is predicated on smart decisions and care with the puck. As most systems are.

2 - Brother, I've ragged on all these same GM moves, and also some everyone ragged me over for ragging them. People tore me a new one when I said the Leddy trade was an abomination and Army's worst. They savaged me. I've moaned about it for a while. But other than pointing to what needs fixing, none of it actually matters when discussing the path ahead to take. We're here now. It is what it is. We need a good plan. That's where I'm at, I hope that's where Army is at.

But look... where was Vancouver last season? Or Winnipeg? Or in the other direction, New Jersey? A lot can change in an offseason. Frankly, this season has proved to me that we are not near as far away as some folks bellow. If we have a needs-meeting jackpot offseason like we did in 2018, led by a Krug exodus, things will look a lot sunnier fast.

Still gonna need to care for the puck, though. Job #1.
Forum: Armchair-GM29 févr. à 14 h 19
Sujet: BLAME ARMSTRONG
Heres the thing. Your'e absoluteley correct on a lot of it. I beg to argue something else: the people around him. Peter Freaking Chiarelli is in this mans ear in every video, hes VP for Hockey Operations. The organizational staff has gone way downhill. It is so uncharacteristic of Doug to sign a ton of #2-3s to the same deal. However, I think the cup run doubled down to Doug the idea that the way to win is on depth and not talent, as its always been with Blues hockey. We'll never know why Faulk even got traded here in the first place, but there was a ripple effect on defense to led to what you see today. I do find it frustrating how stubborn these old school GM's can be, and I think thats what worries me. I don't think these old school guys are capable of a rebuild/retool when your entire franchise is run by them or in the case of Chiarelli, bums. All in all it was just death by 1000 cuts that led to what you see today.

Nobody ever talks about the offense tho and how that is lost all its depth and the core aged out, leads only top line talent left. Its clear retool is focused more on offense than defense, as it should in my opinion.
Forum: Armchair-GM19 janv. à 18 h 40
Sujet: Deadline version 69 - gut this team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_K</b></div><div>Welcome aboard the ship, let's take on some water. Admittedly this was a really tough part of the schedule, but it feels like the past 2 games mark the end of the new coach bump. This team is just low on talent and unable to outscore the elephant-in-the-room top 4 defense. Like AC14 said, the depth beyond the top line is just not there. And we've been waiting for the special teams to show up but we're now past the halfway point and it's still a bottom 3 PP. It could've gone either way this season, but now the important thing is that it goes either way. Don't finish in 17th place for the love of God.</div></div>

I know the defense sucks, but I would also point out that the forwards suck as well. Luckily that should be remedied somewhat quick.
Forum: Armchair-GM4 déc. 2023 à 14 h 51
Sujet: Will Snuggerud and Dvo Leapfrog Bolduc and Dean
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheEarthmaster</b></div><div>I mean this is a problem that stems from the Blues inability to pick a direction and these self imposed rules that Armstrong/Blues ownership is insistent on. If they're going to be bad they should trade Parayko (and Faulk, and Buchnevich, and Binnington, and probably every other good player over 27). If they're going to be good they need to be clearing out their guys that aren't producing and using their TDL haul to improve the team. They did neither, and so now they're like a team that's mostly making hay on Binnington playing well and Jake Neighbours shooting 28%. Might make the playoffs (which, honestly, is probably all they care about for that sweet sweet home game playoff revenue) but you're just banking on Cinderella runs that more often than not fall short anyway, not building a real contender.

And I get that Armstrong checked in on Timo Meier and tried to ship Krug out with one of the 1sts (not convinced that the latter would have necessarily been a good move and also Timo Meier has been terrible this year) but at the end of the day he didn't pull either of those or anything else of note off so...stuck in the middle it is.


Sorry for staking up comments here I came like twenty minutes late to the party.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_K</b></div><div>What is frustrating to me is when Army says he wants to replicate the LA rebuild. Except:
1 - their fading/aging talents (Kopitar, Doughty) are a lot better players than ours (Schenn, Parayko). It's a lesser gamble to count on the mid-30s of elite players.
2 - their draft picks were 5oa, 2oa (4oa before lotto), 8oa when they bottomed out. Does Army think 10oa-25oa-29oa last year was good enough to start the turnaround? If not, why did he build a team to try to get 85-90 pts?
3 - they found Fiala just like we found Buch, but we got Buch too early in the timeline and his impact on the future, rebuilt team is in limbo. Fiala's entire prime will be spent with the rebuilt team.</div></div>

So i did a little bit of brief digging because i was moreso interested in how the Kings exactly went about things because the draft picks the higher ones really have not been a huge factor thus far.

2017-2018 45-29-8 (98 points)
Notable Salaries:
Doughty 11m Thru 25-26 Still Active
Kopitar 10m thru 23-24 Still Active
Quick 5.8m thru 22-23 Traded last deadline
Brown 5.875 thru 21-22 Ran through Expiry
Kovalchuk 6.25 thru 20-21 (Contract Terminated 2019)
Martinez 4m thru 20-21 (Traded 2020 (2 2nd round picks))
Carter 5.275 thru 21-22 (Traded 2021 50% retained on expiring deal for 3rd + 4th)

After this season is when their collapse started equivalent to last season for us. They had made a few small additions in the offseason but nothing big.

2018-2019 31-42-9 (71 points)
extended Walker 2.65 thru 23-24
Maata 3.33 thru 21-22
Kempe 2m x 2
Iafollo 2.425 one year

The following 2 seasons they did largely nothing

2019-2020 29-35-6 (64 points)
No significant adds very similar

2020-2021 (49 points) COVID Year 6th in div
No significant adds very similar

Then this is where they started to be aggressive as there was very limited time on Brown, Maata expiring. Quick couple years left.
2021-2022 (99 points)
Added Danault
Added Arvidsson
added Edler
extended Roy
added Athanasiou
Trevor Moore Bridge
Stetcher minimal contract

Then the next year they added Fiala and that's pretty current to where they stand. Now there was certainly youth that came in to play in this but it wasn't very significant.

Vilardi 54 games 24 points 2020-21, missed most of 21-22, good season last season then traded in PLD trade.
Kalyiev had a pretty minimal contribution in 21-22, .5ppg last season in limited action, this season looks like he's taking another stride.
Byfield hasn't really jumped until this season. Last season wasn't bad.

What can we learn from this?

LAK realized it pretty quickly and started selling - Armstrong did the same this past season with ROR/Barby/Tarasenko

They then went into a holding pattern to let some of the other contracts run out (Brown, Kovalchuk (got lucky here), Carter, Martinez (debatable if it needed to run out wasn't awful), Quick, Kopitar, Doughty). The last two aren't really part of a problem really, just moreso they are running towards the end of their careers so included them.

What do the Blues have in that front that need to run out?
Saad - 3 more at 4.5m
Hayes - 3 more at 3.6m
Schenn - 5 more at 6.5m
Krug - 4 more at 6.5m
Faulk- 4 more at 6.5m
Leddy- 3 more at 4m
Parayko - 7 more at 6.5m
Scandella - Expiring this season not integral.

You can categorize Parayko, and probably Schenn in that moreso Kopitar and Doughty scenario. But they aren't those two. So there's one hurdle to climb. But what is good (Or bad however you view it) is that we essentially already have our Fiala in Kyrou, I would take Thomas' contribution over PLDs as well.

So while we can probably comp to the pieces that LA had we have alot larger of a hill to climb. Meaning I don't really see too well how we are going to start that uptick in year 4 of the retool without additional work (Moving Faulk/Krug). But what is good is the youth injection that we will probably miss out on isn't what turned things around for LA. However, it's highly likely it's going to be what pushes them upwards even more. So do we <em>Need<em> to bottom out? No not necessarily. LA rebounded with mainly young guys who weren't high end talents jumping up and their roles expanding. What worries me is how we're going to navigate adding in supplemental guys - Arvidsson/Iafollo/Danault/ to help push us over the edge if we dont</em></em>
Forum: Armchair-GM4 déc. 2023 à 12 h 55
Sujet: Will Snuggerud and Dvo Leapfrog Bolduc and Dean
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_K</b></div><div>All I'm saying is it would be a lot better team with an actually good partner for Parayko and a balanced 2nd pairing that you could throw out in more situations. I agree that we're not good enough currently but I really don't want to see the same D again next year... and the next year, and.. (I didn't want to see them this year!). Obviously the more years we can get through before making changes on D the better, but I also don't think we have any internal pieces that are coming in to fix things on D when the current guys finally leave. Buchinger prob gets the Walman treatment where they neuter him into a robot and then trade him. Lindstein will take 3+ years just to be Carl Gunnarsson 2.0.</div></div>

I don't think anybody wants to see it but it's the reality of the situation unfortunately. I really thought Doug would strong arm Krug into taking the trade to Philadelphia. I'm not sure of the reasoning for him being so stringent on NMCs yet he allows NTCs to be NMCs.
Forum: Armchair-GM29 nov. 2023 à 15 h 55
Sujet: Blues in 5 years
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_K</b></div><div>I agree with you that we gotta be realistic about how many of the current prospects are going to be true top six forwards... it may be even lower that what you're imagining...
Snuggerud and Dvorsky, to me, are the most sure-fire top six guys - undeniable NHL shot and compete - but they've also created a little bit of doubt with their inconsistencies in production (yes it's too early to judge)
Bolduc played a great all-around game in juniors but watching him vs pros it's hard to see how he will make that part of his identity - he may be more of a PP threat/sheltered 3rd line guy but likely an NHLer.
Dean was always tracking as a bottom six C aside from an insane playoff heater in the Q (as a 20 yr old fwiw).
Neighbours may always be the 3rd guy on his line but still has promise as being that guy on a scoring line which helps.
Stenberg is an unknown for me. I'm hoping he turns out like Steen where he can be relied on for steady play in any deployment. (Remember when they let him loose and he had 33 goals that one year?!)
Pekarcik has a loooong way to go - he was only like 3 days away from being 2024 eligible - but I've seen some nice flashes from him.

So yeah, I hope they all pan out but realistically we could be looking at 2-3 impact guys. Luckily, there should be money to spend on outside acquisitions, and like you said all the teams have to make tough decisions on who to keep and who to move. Here's to hoping we get better pro scouting than the guys who liked Krug and Leddy more than Dunn and Walman.</div></div>

Unfortunately in regards to Leddy/Krug it's been a cycle of trying to extend the window as long as possible that's crashed to a close. I liked the Leddy acquisition when we did it - didn't love the cost, but a good skating puck mover to be paired with Parayko was something we desperately needed to try. Unfortunately I thought with that we would steer further from just throwing them out there every d zone draw and praying for the best.

I'm not sure I'm as worried about production with guys like Dvo and Snuggerud. Both have the compete level and shot to be 3rd liners at minimum. Snuggerud's drop off was pretty predictable after losing Cooley and Knies to the NHL. He's still not having a bad season. But that minnesota team got ripped to shreds. Legitimately lost 4 guys to the NHL in Faber, Knies, Cooley, and Johnson. Dvorsky's time in the SHL was a bit worrisome. But that team in general is really really bad. Would've liked to see him have a bit of success but it's a team that probably didn't want to be relegated pushing out a kid who probably wasn't fully ready to take a leap into a top end producers role. I don't think you get Dvorsky to see him light up the score sheet. He's going to get his points but he's also not going to completely wow you on the scorecard. The great thing about him like Snuggerud is at the very minimum after getting acclimated to the NHL level they can be productive 3rd liners.

Bolduc like you said we can hope to be Mike Hoffman, but chances are he's not. I'm not saying he's a lost cause but you don't see that floor on him yet. Dean i think is another guy that at the very least as long as he starts doing a bit better in the AHL can have a career as a bottom 6er. Again i'm typing these on what I'd imagine are floors from this point certainly not guarantees. I still think they both have a good chance to be impactful players. It just may take quite a bit of time.

Neighbors has really impressed me this year. I'd venture to guess he's a guy the team keeps around through this transition. Extremely young, yet plays a pretty hard game and has some skill. Agree with your assessment of him.

I've been fairly high on Stenberg. He's a competitor but the only issue is I don't see anything that stands out as being something that can be his key at the NHL level. I still truly believe he's pretty successful.

Pekarcik if we're lucky will be a Toropchenko type. Which is great for a 3rd rounder.

Certainly high on our prospect group even if I don't see us having a truly elite player coming from the group.