I often see, in mock drafts and other places, discussion about NJD trading 10th overall for a goalie. NJD fans on here have proposed many scenarios to move that pick…and we have seen many offers by teams selling a goalie for #10. But I don’t see any obvious trade where that pick would be moved for a goalie.
SCHNEIDER COMP
Cory Schneider is the logical comp (Devils traded #9 overall in 2013) but he was a starter, with top-5 numbers, and Vancouver had Luongo already on the roster. Furthermore, the 2013 changes to CBA had recently included the recapture penalty, which made trading Luongo a lot harder (many had expected Luongo to be dealt as he had lost starters net and had asked for trade at 2013 deadline).
OTHER COMPS
-- Vokoun was dealt for following years 1st (had 4 yrs)
-- Raanta was sold as rental with Stepan for #7, prospect
-- Varlamov was dealt as RFA for following years 1st
-- Toskala was dealt for #13 along with Mark Bell
-- Roloson was dealt at deadline for #16
-- Lehner was dealt for #21 with David Legwand
-- Martin Jones was sold as RFA for following years 1st
-- Andersen went for #30 as RFA (signed 5 yrs)
-- Kuemper was rental traded for late 1st
In general, goalies are more often moved when their contracts are up, when selling teams have a viable alternative or when cap-squeezed.
Can see whole list of comps here: https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/714829
NJD TARGET
It likely has to be a younger goalie (30 or younger) with plenty of term/team control, worthy of a top-10 pick, yet expendable for other team. There are only a handful of scenarios that see to fit:
1. BOS / Swayman if extension talks don’t work out
2. FLA / Knight if…(would be a lot of ‘if’s’ here)
3. MIN / Gustavsson if an additional piece is coming back
TIMING
I think the goalie carousel will start to spin in July, after the draft, once extension windows open up for bonuses are paid, and free agents are signed. For instance, Swayman’s extension likely impacts timing of an Ullmark deal. Nashville probably wants to sell Saros with extension attached. Florida may extend Stolarz before moving Knight. So the 2025 picks are probably more likely pick to be moved for a goalie. (But is something occurs at 2024 draft, it may come out of left field)
CONCLUSION
My bet is that NJD finds their goalie after draft. All of these scenarios seem to be low probability outcomes.
If…Stolarz is extended as back-up, Panthers need the cap space to bring back some core guys, and Devils feel confident enough in Knight to be future starter.
If…Nashville is ready to move to Askorov as number one and Saros is not going to be extended in NSH without NTC (note, he can add no trade protection to his existing 2024-25 contract once he extends…so this would be the scenario where they would have to decide upon that early). Devils would have to feel confident that extension could be reached.
If…something comes out of left field on draft day that no one saw coming. Just using Sorokin as an example here…he is unlikely to be traded. But if a Sorokin, Demko, Hellebuyck, Oettinger, Vasilevskiy etc type goalie were to someone become available…anything would be on the table for them.
If…a different out of left field scenario, where a good young goalie becomes available whatever reason (Askorov if Saros is to be extended, Wallstedt if MIN goes with Gus).
I’m actually in the other camp. I feel like NJ took a flamethrower to their season when they depended on Schmid / Vanacek. While I feel Allen is better than Vanacek, he’s a backup. If you can acquire stability in the net for a young player like Holtz or a 2025 (top 12 protected pick), you should absolutely do it. This team seemed on the verge. The fact you have a top 10 pick is an utter joke.
I'm largely in agreement with you. Even though the OP is correct in that there are other important issues with the Devils besides goaltending (which might be overstated), the fact is that goaltending is an issue.
My feeling is that if it costs a 1st to get a proven veteran goalie then NJ should just do it, because getting stability in net will go a log way to alleviating the other issues on the team.
After the season Schmid, Vanacek had, who can blame them. Lost Graves and Severson to free agency, lost Hamilton, Miller, Siegenthaler to injuries. Played a lot of rookie on blue line.
After the season Schmid, Vanacek had, who can blame them. Lost Graves and Severson to free agency, lost Hamilton, Miller, Siegenthaler to injuries. Played a lot of rookie on blue line.
Overpaying for a goalie is not the answer.
Vanacek was a terrible bet. Schmid was interesting, but he sucked this past year.
My guess is you can fill the D void in free agency. Add Siegs and Dougie back along with the emergence of Nemec.
The problems with NJD are youth, injuries, and too much inexperience on blue line…undersold.
I don’t think any goalie alone can turn us back into 112-pt team. But good health, better puck control out of dmen, and a few other holes filled… with average goaltending could.
You're not necessarily wrong, but what you're basically arguing is that NJ needs to address 3 or more issues on the team just to make up for any deficiency in net. 2 of those issues, youth and injuries are largely out of your control because player progression isn't linear and you can't guarantee health.
Getting a proven veteran starter doesn't mean all the issues vanish it just provides a larger margin of error for the rest of the team.
Even for three years…retaining $2.4m would be worth it if there was a guy they liked at #10 (even retaining 50%). It always depends on how the draft goes. Unless Ducks try to push up their window.
I’d like to say that I think the general premise of this thread is unnecessary. No doubt you had good intentions, but I think moving a first round pick of any kind for a goalie is unnecessary. I actually think the cap friendly user base in general is over playing their hand about trading for a goalie.
The teams I have determined that both want to be competitive and are in the goalie market are the following: NJD, TOR, LAK, EDM and COL. You can look at the draft assets of each of these teams, NJD can by far put together the best offer. If BOS has to move off of Linus Ullmark (which seems likely at this point), all NJD has to do is put together the best offer, not offer full value for the player.
I’d like to say that I think the general premise of this thread is unnecessary. No doubt you had good intentions, but I think moving a first round pick of any kind for a goalie is unnecessary. I actually think the cap friendly user base in general is over playing their hand about trading for a goalie.
The teams I have determined that both want to be competitive and are in the goalie market are the following: NJD, TOR, LAK, EDM and COL. You can look at the draft assets of each of these teams, NJD can by far put together the best offer. If BOS has to move off of Linus Ullmark (which seems likely at this point), all NJD has to do is put together the best offer, not offer full value for the player.
I think that is the point here…I don’t think there is any trade for goalie using #10 pick that is worthwhile unless there is another piece or it’s some unexpected goalie that comes on market.
Ah man, I’m here trying to convince my ol lady to move there
It’s a good call. Austin, If you are under 25. Knox-Henderson part of Dallas if no kids. Park cities with young kids, if you can afford it. Plano maybe too.
If Minnesota trades Gustavsson, they aren't adding. You saying additional piece isn't happening.
Gustavsson alone doesn’t get close to a top-ten pick. It was a Wild beat reporter (Russo) that reported they may try to move him as way to move up in the draft (so from #13 to #10).
Gustavsson alone doesn’t get close to a top-ten pick. It was a Wild beat reporter (Russo) that reported they may try to move him as way to move up in the draft (so from #13 to #10).
so they might add their pick, but nothing else. Depends on what Guerin does
You're not necessarily wrong, but what you're basically arguing is that NJ needs to address 3 or more issues on the team just to make up for any deficiency in net. 2 of those issues, youth and injuries are largely out of your control because player progression isn't linear and you can't guarantee health.
Getting a proven veteran starter doesn't mean all the issues vanish it just provides a larger margin of error for the rest of the team.
A) no goalie is anything close to a guarantee. If you said this time last year that Vasy, Sorokin, Oettinger, Samsonov and Gustafsson would go from a combined 150 GSAx last year to a combined NEGATIVE 5 this year, you would have been called cray. That was 5 of the top 9 goalies in GSAx last year.
B) they need to address the bottom 6 whether they get a goalie or not
C) a dman should be a target whether they address the goalie or not
D) Vanacek was horrific (and couldn't stay healthy ****ing over Daws and Schmid into being overworked at stretches when Vanacek couldn't go). But they already DID improve on the goaltending. Allen+Kahkonen in place of Vanacek is already a significant upgrade. So go make upgrades elsewhere
I’d like to say that I think the general premise of this thread is unnecessary. No doubt you had good intentions, but I think moving a first round pick of any kind for a goalie is unnecessary. I actually think the cap friendly user base in general is over playing their hand about trading for a goalie.
The teams I have determined that both want to be competitive and are in the goalie market are the following: NJD, TOR, LAK, EDM and COL. You can look at the draft assets of each of these teams, NJD can by far put together the best offer. If BOS has to move off of Linus Ullmark (which seems likely at this point), all NJD has to do is put together the best offer, not offer full value for the player.
With the 2024 pick off the table, no second round pick, and a lower rated prospect system. I actually believe NJD has the worst package to offer among those teams and some NJD fans need to stop rationalizing. Their goalies were bad last year. They didn’t save the pucks they were supposed to.
With the 2024 pick off the table, no second round pick, and a lower rated prospect system. I actually believe NJD has the worst package to offer among those teams and some NJD fans need to stop rationalizing. Their goalies were bad last year. They didn’t save the pucks they were supposed to.
I don’t think Linus Ullmark moves before July 1. There’s simply no need for any team receiving him in a trade to make the trade before they can agree on an extension. This takes all 2024 picks off the table in this trade regardless of the destination.
TOR: does not currently have any picks in the first four rounds of the 2025 draft. I also sincerely doubt BOS would trade with a team they just had a playoff game 7 with
COL: does not currently have any picks in the first three rounds of the 2025 draft
EDM: does not currently have picks in the second, fourth and fifth round of the 2025 draft
LAK: has all of their picks in the 2025 draft
NJD: currently has a first and two second round picks in the 2025 draft
I don’t think Linus Ullmark moves before July 1. There’s simply no need for any team receiving him in a trade to make the trade before they can agree on an extension. This takes all 2024 picks off the table in this trade regardless of the destination.
TOR: does not currently have any picks in the first four rounds of the 2025 draft. I also sincerely doubt BOS would trade with a team they just had a playoff game 7 with
COL: does not currently have any picks in the first three rounds of the 2025 draft
EDM: does not currently have picks in the second, fourth and fifth round of the 2025 draft
LAK: has all of their picks in the 2025 draft
NJD: currently has a first and two second round picks in the 2025 draft
Ok. A simple verbal agreement to extend on July 1st is not that difficult to do and frankly, most teams not on his NTC, will probably wait to extend him.
Ok. A simple verbal agreement to extend on July 1st is not that difficult to do and frankly, most teams not on his NTC, will probably wait to extend him.
I forgot to mention the other motivation to wait until July 1 (or later) for the trade. Linus Ullmark is due a $1M bonus payment on that day. I’m fairly certain the team that is gonna trade for Ullmark will want Boston to make this payment (this doesn’t personally matter to me, but I guess some teams will wanna save the $1M in cash if it’s possible)
I forgot to mention the other motivation to wait until July 1 (or later) for the trade. Linus Ullmark is due a $1M bonus payment on that day. I’m fairly certain the team that is gonna trade for Ullmark will want Boston to make this payment (this doesn’t personally matter to me, but I guess some teams will wanna save the $1M in cash if it’s possible)
3.5M in salary (1 mill bonus) is an utter bargain. Not really stressed about a team wanting him there. I think you are trying to make up a reason (and I get why) that teams won’t trade a 2024 pick for him. I believe that’s the most likely scenario.
Not sure if it is a second and a prospect or a first.
Ok. A simple verbal agreement to extend on July 1st is not that difficult to do and frankly, most teams not on his NTC, will probably wait to extend him.
I don’t think any of the goalies move before the draft. But if Bruins sell Ullmark before, it means they aren’t putting him to market…and it’s likely a previously agreed upon package (and Swayman is signed).
Tintin a aimé ceci.
Holtz,
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