Obviously there's been a lot of discourse on the Marner situation, so I wanted to put my own spin on a trade. I used the cap friendly player search tool to find a large list of players, and then cut it down from there. Here are the filters I applied:
- Between ages 22-28
-Over 180lbs and 6 feet tall
-Cap hit of less than 7 million
-More than 10 games played last season
-Either an RFA this off-season or signed through next year
This gave me a list of over 60 defenseman, who I cut down to 40 based on having approximately similar value to Marner. I then cut that down to a final 5 who I thought made sense for the Leafs and made sense for the other team to trade that player for Marner. Here is the spreadsheet where I organized this:
My final choice as the main return for Marner was Jackson LaCombe of the Ducks. Reviews are mixed on his game, with his Moneypuck analytics nothing special, and his CapFriendly scouting report very strong. Either way, as a 23 year old playing 20 minutes a night in the show and posting almost 20 points, he clearly has some upside. The Leafs also get a first-rounder and Isaac Lundestrom, a very interesting reclamation project. I think this package is very realistic and something that I would be happy with if it were to happen.
The Leafs then flip the extra first to Vegas for Zach Whitecloud. I think this is a good player who plays a playoff-style game and is on a great deal. Vegas is cap-strapped and has too many defenseman already, so it makes sense all around.
I also have the Leafs getting off Kampf for picks. I like the player, but I believe his role will be diminished without Keefe, and can be filled be Holmberg or Dewar.
At the draft, I like the Leafs to trade down with an eye on Jesse Pulkinnen. He is a massive and talented finnish defenceman, but an overager. The Leafs can get him in the second round, and Arizona with likely be looking to move up at any cost this draft to make a splash.
If done right, the Leafs will have a lot of money to play with in free agency this offseason. Domi should return on a reasonable deal, and Matt Roy is a very steady defenceman who can play a Brodie-like role for years to come. Talbot is an agreeable fit with Woll, where he has upside but knows how to do whatever is asked of him. Lindholm would be a really interesting fit as a bounce-back candidate with Treliving familiarity. We need a middle-six center anyways, and if things don't work out, the Leafs will just have more cap space for next offseason to go after guys like Draisatl and Crosby.
Thanks for reading, and feel free to tell me why I'm wrong!
The Marner trade. Why does NMC Marner waive to a last place team in his contract year? Why would Ducks who are finishing out of the playoffs trade anything for one year of Marner?
The Marner trade. Why does NMC Marner waive to a last place team in his contract year? Why would Ducks who are finishing out of the playoffs trade anything for one year of Marner?
I think no matter what, if Marner waives, it will be due to pressure from the organization. Also, if Anaheim has an extension on the table, he would be smart to chase that. For the Ducks, it is a move similar to the Gaudreau one a couple years ago by the Blue Jackets. They have an excess of defenseman, especially on the left, and it would be nice for them to augment their top-six with a more experienced player. They have the assets, so why not go out and make a trade that you think you cannot lose?
I think no matter what, if Marner waives, it will be due to pressure from the organization. Also, if Anaheim has an extension on the table, he would be smart to chase that. For the Ducks, it is a move similar to the Gaudreau one a couple years ago by the Blue Jackets. They have an excess of defenseman, especially on the left, and it would be nice for them to augment their top-six with a more experienced player. They have the assets, so why not go out and make a trade that you think you cannot lose?
I think the Ducks vision on where they are and expect to be is much different than the Blue Jackets at the time. I don't think Verbeek is looking to sign a 8-figure winger, maybe he would make an exception for Marner but probably not at 12M. Considering that California is a high-tax state, I don't think Marner would sign for much lower.
From the players' perspective, Gaudreau picked the place that he thought was best for him via FA, Marner will have many options as a FA, if he's accepting a trade it's probably so that he can sign an 8-year deal with a contender or a young team that is closer than Anaheim like Buff, Det, or Ott or a team like SEA and NSH, or UTAH for monetary reasons.
Kampf with that contract doesn't have positive value. Leafs would be thrilled to find a team that takes him for future considerations. The Hawks don't want him at all.
Theo_nollaf et OldNYIfan a aimé ceci.
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