Interesting but I think we can just attach Forsberg and one of the 4ths we have to some team and they’d take him for the season.

CHI shouldn't do that.

We should stay away from Roslovic, not the right guy for 2C even short term or the Hawks system.

Highly doubt Vlasic would sign an 8 year deal at $5.2M. Remember, as a 22 year rookie against the toughest assignments, he's ranked top 3 defensive players in the defensive zone. If Vlasic were never to improve from this season, unlikely given his age and the improvement from a year ago, he'd be worth $6M minimum to $8M on a 8 year deal. He and his agent are not only wouldn't take a penny less, they will bet on him improving and thus almost certainly don't want a 8 year deal unless it's around $8M which the Hawks probably wouldn't do. For that reason, he's likely a 3 year bridge and going to land anywhere from $3M to $5M on a 3 year bridge deal is my guess. If I'm Chicago though, I'd push to lock him up between $6M and $7M on a 8 year deal as that will look like a bargain in a few years with Vlasic almost certainly improving and the cap continuing to rise. We could be looking at the best shutdown defender in the league in a couple years, and I'd argue if he had played 6 less games last season in the NHL and could qualify for the Calder, he'd be in the conversation right behind Bedard and Faber with a pretty good argument.

I think the Hawks bring in a cheap RHD vet for 1 or 2 years until Rinzel (or Levshunov if the Hawks draft him) are ready for the show. Keep rotating Del Mastro, Kaiser, Crevier and Philips all getting chances to play 20 games on the left side 3rd line. The good news is all 4 have shown they can play in the league to varying degrees with Del Mastro probably ahead of the class of 4. Certainly at least 1 or 2 will get moved in the next couple years. The question mark to me is Allan. Can Allan play on his off-side in the NHL and be good enough in a 3rd line role? He's played a fair amount on his off-side, so could be interesting or perhaps the Hawks don't think highly enough of him. My rankings of those 5 are as follows; Del Mastro, Kaiser, Crevier, Alan, Phillips in that order. It's a logjam for sure.

I disagree with this. Shutdown dmen don't make $8M. If he signed at $5.2M for 8 years, he would be overpaid for the first 2 to 4 years of the contract. Which means overall, he will have made more money in total than he would have on a bridge plus his contract after the bridge deal. At his peak, as a shutdown defenseman, $5.2M should be right in line with market value. The only way he gets $8M or more is if he adds a ton of offense to his game. Which is possible, but, again, the overpayment in the first few years of the contract should be able to make up for that discrepancy, and if they structure the contract properly and backload the deal, he will be making that much or close enough to it in the back half of the contract, just at a lower AAV, which helps the team.

Contract structure:

@ a $5.18M AAV x 8 years

Actual salary:
Year 1: $3M
Year 2: $3M
Year 3: $3M
Year 4: $4.5M
Year 5: $5.5M
Year 6: $6.5M
Year 7: $8M
Year 8: $8M

No way. Gudas just signed this season for $4M and he's 33 years old. Brodin signed at 28 years old for $6M 3 years ago. McDonagh signed at 30 years old for $6.75M 5 years ago. Slavin signed 6 years ago, age 23 at $5.3M which is probably the closest to Vlasic...6 years ago!

With a 22 year old on a long term deal playing at the level of those players today, and you're paying for future ability obviously and against a rising cap, those comps aren't going to land Vlasic. Player contracts are based on a % against the total cap obviously. When all those players signed the cap limits were lower and they were much older aside from Slavin. Not only would he NOT be overpaid at $5.2M next year...that would be about fair market value (at least in the ballpark), he would be way underpaid in a few years against a rising cap to boot.

This seems pretty spot on directionally to me. Not sure Roslovic or Johnson are the right UFA targets, but those are the two target positions in free agency for sure. Don't like the Ottawa trade. Hawks have no need for Forsberg. Just re-sign Stauber for another season in Rockford. If Sody stinks again, swap them. But overall this seems like a pretty accurate look at next year's team.

Mostly agree with everything here. I'd have no problem paying more than what I have here to get Vlasic locked in. In terms of ranking the D, I'd have it the same other than Crevier in last. I just don't see it with him.

All on shorter term deals, with larger sample sizes showing consistency throughout their careers, and most of them putting up significantly more offense. AAV and actual salary are two completely different things, with the way contracts are structured these days. By combining the bridge deal with his third contract adjusted for his development curve, they can take the AAV or cap hit down to a more manageable level. If they see him as a long term piece, they should just skip the bridge deal and put it all in one contract to drive down the cap hit.

Also, I edited my previous comment with an example of a contract structure to reflect what I am trying to say.

Edit: Also, check this out. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R0mzG_2auhSGxLZ_LoiE9EwK8enxbNbw0BGqDVmKlu0/edit#gid=1228449332
These guys are usually pretty accurate or close enough in their predictions.

I'd argue Vlasic is worth the 5M right now

Vlasic is the next Slavin. this is the agenda i've been pushing, glad to see someone else also sees it

I didn't say I don't see it. But, generally, that just isn't how contract structures and negotiations work. Especially with young players who are not arbitration eligible. Again, by combining a bridge deal with a longer term deal they can BOTH pay him accordingly, while also driving down the AAV, thus driving down the cap hit. It helps him, his agent, and the team. It's a win win.

See my above comment. I think Vlasic is playing like AT LEAST a 5M dollar dman right now

Sure. I could argue that too. But it just isn't how negotiations work. But players generally want to help their team too. AAV is just an average. If they can structure the payment schedule in a way that works for all sides while also driving down the AAV, then it's a win win scenario.

Also, Before anyone else was saying it, I WAS THE ONE who first proposed a $6.5M x 8 year deal for him, and everyone called me crazy for it earlier in the season. Might've even been over the summer when I proposed that.

None of the players I mentioned showed what Vlasic has at 22 years old in his rookie season. They also all signed those agreements when there was a lower cap ceiling and thus taking up a bigger percentage of cap at the time.

Regard offense, all were playing on much better teams offensively then the Hawks so the difference between a 16 point player and a 32 point player for a shutdown d man could be largely attributed to that alone....seems like a massive jump offensive but really isn't. Shutdown guys especially benefit with point production based on the team around them so don't believe that's part of the argument.

I get what you are doing, but the first 3 years in your model he is severely underpaid against those comps, with Slavin being the closest one signing at 23 years old 6 years ago taking for $5.3M which was a much higher percentage of cap at that time. Brodin signed for $4.2M 9 years ago at age 22 coming off his ELC coming off a very similar performance as Vlasic. The math simply doesn't add up against what you are suggesting given the cap increases and looking at these comps 6 or 9 years ago. In other words, years 1, 2, and 3 would need to start with at least a number of $4.5m to upwards of $6m to remotely be considered fair value using Slavin or Brodin's first contract as a comp 6 and 9 years later.

There is very little question given these comps and considering the cap increases including going into next year and the % of total cap at the time on those comps that Vlasic will take anything less than $4m to $5m on a bridge deal let alone a long term AAV of $5M to $5.5m.

But an AAV of $5.2 over 8 years is just off. $6.5M AAV would be more inline with the first couple years paid out around $4m and going upwards from there.

That all said, I believe everyone is going to end up on a bridge because he did something incredible in his rookie season, vastly improving over last year, but it all being just one year. If they bridge him for 2 or 3 years he remains a RFA i'm pretty sure. Of course assuming he continues to perform like this season and slightly get better, in 3 years the Hawks will certainly be looking at $6.5M to $8M AAV against the rising cap and a more complete resume.

You were the one who said $3M. I was just using your number. There are many ways to make the numbers work. Players and agents aren't concerned with AAV, they are concerned with real dollars. If the team can structure a contract in a way that both, makes the player/agent happy, and keeps the AAV down, it is a win win scenario. All I'm saying is they should be thinking about that. Because money will eventually get tight again, and if his offense doesn't pick up, a contract like that could become a problem. Also, as I stated in another comment, he is not arbitration eligible. They could make it work for both sides.

Was saying that from the perspective of being an RFA, a hometown boy, and the Hawks getting extremely lucky on a bridge deal as a basement number. But market value is a different thing, $3M would be 100% underpaid on a bridge and even more underpaid as a factor into a long term deal thus taking the ability away for Vlasic to really cash in at the age of 24 or 25.

I don't actually believe the improvements from last year to this year were that drastic. We just saw him play more consistently because he was up all season this year. But I saw this exact same player last year, in his limited play time. Which is not to downplay him, because what I saw last year got me REALLY excited. And he has been awesome this year as well.

So, yeah, that is why I am saying there is a way they can make the numbers work. If they want to skip the bridge and lock him up long term, there are ways they can structure the pay schedule to drive the cap hit down. And if possible they should do that. Because, again, money will eventually get tight, and it is their jobs to structure everything and maximize their cap structures fluidity. All i'm saying is they can get creative and figure out something that works for all sides, that has less of a chance of forcing them to make tough decisions down the line.

Also, these large raises in the cap are not going to continue beyond the next two seasons. It will go back to a more normal pace after that.

How about this.

Contract structure:

Year 1: $5M
Year 2: $5M
Year 3: $5M
Year 4: $5.5M
Year 5: $6.5M
Year 6: $7M
Year 7: $8M
Year 8: $8M

This would put him at a $6.25M cap hit/aav for 8 years, more manageable cap hit, paying him fair market, and locks him up long term. Something like this could work.

I mean, respect, but over the summer 6.5M was crazy :lol

Or maybe even pump up the first years signing bonus to get a lump sum up front, then go down in the middle and back up again toward the end, for a more steady flow of salary. Either way, there are ways to structure things that make sense and can help both sides.

lol. Well, I saw this player in the 6 games he played last year. I was making a prediction that he would become this, after a full season under his belt. It wasn't that crazy of a prediction, if you actually watched him play. He came right out of the gate, last year and the year before, doing things defensively that you just don't see many, if any, other players doing in the NHL.

I’m not huge on EJ or Roslovic as the big free agent additions, and I think Vlasic hits 6 AAV, but this is a sensible projection.

OTT declines, forsbergs got 1 year left, just buy him out rather than move down, id do that trade with korpi tho

Ottawa can afford the cap hit with Forsberg, I think the optics are the main issue if nothing changes in net.Their focus is likely more on something to do with Korpisalo and waiting the year out on Forsberg or just buying him out.

That said the value is likely accurate, not a bad proposal just not one that I think would be a priority to get accepted by the Sens.