Which year would you want incredible luck on your side

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Créé par: KentMcNally

Équipe: 2023-24 Canadiens de Montréal

Date de création initiale: 16 févr. 2024

Publié: 16 févr. 2024

Mode - plafond salarial: Basique

Description

With the draft lottery rule now being that Montreal can only win the lottery one more time in the next four years, and given that the Habs are in a lottery position this year and possibly next, I looked at the numbers for Celebrini vs Hagens (next year's presumptive #1). I am well aware that Montreal's odds of winning the lottery iwill not be nearly as good this year or next when compared to Chicago's. San Jose's or Anaheim's odds.... but there is still a chance.

If I recall correctly from my reading, there seemed to be more positivity about next year's draft and Hagens, but Celebrini is only 5 months older than Hagens. Celebrini is quite a bit bigger (6 feet and 190 pounds vs 5 foot 9 inches and 168 pounds).

Celebrini is putting up 1.6 points per game in college as one of the youngest players in the country. Hagens is putting up 1.8 points per game on the USNDT, which seems to be a situation where it is a bit easier to score in.

There are many Montreal fans who do not want another down year like this one, so for them the choice may be to take Celebrini this year and push for the playoffs sooner rather than later. I think that the management team will be a little more patient than the fans, but not by much.

So in a hypothetical situation the question is, if Montreal could choose between winning the lottery this year or next (I know it is not their "choice", but this is just a hypothetical) who should Montreal want to have? Celebrini this year (which means getting him 1 year earlier and getting him into the fold 1 year earlier) or Hagens next year (who seems to have more hype around him, but would be a delayed addition to the rebuild by a year)?????

Transactions

MTL

Choix de 1e ronde en 2024 (CHI)

Détails additionnels:

Macklin Celebrini

CHI

Choix de 1e ronde en 2024 (MTL)

MTL

Choix de 1e ronde en 2025 (SJS)

Détails additionnels:

James Hagens

SJS

Choix de 1e ronde en 2025 (MTL)

Rachats de contrats

Karl Alzner: 833 333 $

Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire

Joel Edmundson: 1 750 000 $ (50%)
Jeff Petry: 2 343 750 $ (50%)

Repêchage	1e ronde	2e ronde	3e ronde	4e ronde	5e ronde	6e ronde	7e ronde
2024
2025
2026

FORMATION

VUE À LONG TERME

INTÉGRÉ

TEXTE INTÉGRÉ

TAILLE DE LA FORMATION	PLAFOND SALARIAL	CAP HIT	EXCÉDENTS	BONIS	ESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
23	83 500 000 $	75 810 416 $	1 170 000 $	4 035 000 $	7 689 584 $

Ailier gauche	Centre	Ailier droit
Caufield, Cole 7 850 000 $7 850 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 8	Suzuki, Nick 7 875 000 $7 875 000 $ C UFA - 7	Gallagher, Brendan 6 500 000 $6 500 000 $ AD, AG M-NTC, NMC UFA - 4
Pearson, Tanner 3 250 000 $3 250 000 $ AG UFA - 1	Evans, Jake 1 700 000 $1 700 000 $ C UFA - 2	Anderson, Josh 5 500 000 $5 500 000 $ AD, AG M-NTC UFA - 4
Newhook, Alex 2 900 000 $2 900 000 $ C, AG RFA - 4	Gignac, Brandon 775 000 $775 000 $ C UFA - 2	Armia, Joel 3 400 000 $3 400 000 $ AD, AG UFA - 2
Roy, Joshua 835 000 $835 000 $ (57 500 $$58K) AG, AD RFA - 3		Slafkovsky, Juraj 950 000 $950 000 $ (3 500 000 $$4M) AD, AG RFA - 2
Pezzetta, Michael 812 500 $812 500 $ AG, AD UFA - 2		Ylönen, Jesse 775 000 $775 000 $ AD, AG RFA - 1

Défenseur gaucher	Défenseur droitier	Gardien de but
Matheson, Michael 4 875 000 $4 875 000 $ DG M-NTC UFA - 3	Savard, David 3 500 000 $3 500 000 $ DD UFA - 2	Allen, Jake 1 925 000 $1 925 000 $ G M-NTC UFA - 2
Harris, Jordan 1 400 000 $1 400 000 $ DG/DD RFA - 2	Kovacevic, Johnathan 766 667 $766 667 $ DD UFA - 2	Montembeault, Samuel 1 000 000 $1 000 000 $ G UFA - 1
Struble, Jayden 867 500 $867 500 $ (57 500 $$58K) DG RFA - 2		Primeau, Cayden 890 000 $890 000 $ G RFA - 2
Guhle, Kaiden 863 333 $863 333 $ (420 000 $$420K) DG/DD RFA - 2
Xhekaj, Arber 828 333 $828 333 $ DG/DD RFA - 1

Laissés de côté	Liste des blessés (IR)	Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
	Dvorak, Christian 4 450 000 $4 450 000 $ C M-NTC UFA - 2	Price, Carey 10 500 000 $10 500 000 $ G NMC UFA - 3
	Dach, Kirby 3 362 500 $3 362 500 $ C, AD RFA - 3
	Harvey-Pinard, Rafaël 1 100 000 $1 100 000 $ AG, AD RFA - 2
	Wideman, Chris 762 500 $762 500 $ DD UFA - 1

16 févr. à 13 h 26

NHLfan10506

Rejoint: mai 2019

Messages: 40,178

Mentions "j'aime": 18,355

I would take a top-3 pick in 2025 over #1 in 2024

16 févr. à 13 h 34

Suzuki_Cup

Rejoint: mars 2020

Messages: 771

Mentions "j'aime": 301

I don't think we can afford to be a bottom5 team next year.

Draft Macklin, reunite him with Hutson on the PP and sign/trade for one last top6 forward. Then, we are pretty much settled as long as everyone develops.

Cole-Nick-Slaf
Mack-Dach-????

Guhle-Reinbacher
Hutson-Mailloux

KentMcNally a aimé ceci.

16 févr. à 13 h 37

Campabee

Rejoint: nov. 2018

Messages: 15,505

Mentions "j'aime": 6,438

Habs can win 2 times, not sure why you think they can only win once but the rule states that you can only advance your position in the draft by way of a lottery win twice in a 5 years span. Montreal finished last in 2022 and won the lottery but did not advance our position, so that doesn't count against us.

Chuck54 et SlickWilly a aimé ceci.

16 févr. à 13 h 44

KentMcNally

Démarrer sujet

Fall River Habs

Rejoint: août 2021

Messages: 883

Mentions "j'aime": 335

Quoting: Campabee

That is true. My mistake.
My question to you is: If you had to choose between the options of MC in 2024 vs getting JH in 2025, what would you rather have happen, Celebrini this year or Hagens next year (which would mean another year near the bottom for Montreal)?

And why?

16 févr. à 13 h 45

ht42

Rejoint: avr. 2022

Messages: 2,406

Mentions "j'aime": 682

Quoting: Suzuki_Cup

Stamkos

16 févr. à 13 h 46

Campabee

Rejoint: nov. 2018

Messages: 15,505

Mentions "j'aime": 6,438

Quoting: KentMcNally

I choose both, why choose one when the rule states you can advance your position twice?!

But strictly speaking on this scenario, take Celebrini, bigger, stronger, more mature and almost NHL ready by the draft (maybe season him in the AHL for a few months next year)

KentMcNally a aimé ceci.

16 févr. à 13 h 50

KentMcNally

Démarrer sujet

Fall River Habs

Rejoint: août 2021

Messages: 883

Mentions "j'aime": 335

Quoting: Campabee

I choose both, why choose one when the rule states you can advance your position twice?!

It is more or a question of getting people's opinions on prospect valuation and where Montreal stands in their rebuild (i.e. how patient people might be for another stinker of a year).

Personally, I would go with Celebrini over Hagens in an "either/or situation", as it would slightly speed up the rebuild and I am just a little concerned about Hagens only being 5'9" (but would obviously be happy with Montreal getting either or both).

16 févr. à 14 h 0

Campabee

Rejoint: nov. 2018

Messages: 15,505

Mentions "j'aime": 6,438

Quoting: KentMcNally

I edited my response to include my choice of the two lol

KentMcNally a aimé ceci.

16 févr. à 14 h 8

KentMcNally

Démarrer sujet

Fall River Habs

Rejoint: août 2021

Messages: 883

Mentions "j'aime": 335

Quoting: Suzuki_Cup

I said this the other day in a separate post: if you want to get really ambitious you could use the remaining draft picks (i.e. Winnipeg's 2024 and Montreal's 205 + Calgary's 2025 pick + whatever else) to try to unload the Anderson and Gallagher contracts and then go for a huge overpay to try to sign Draisaitl in free agency (if he makes it to free agency). I know it would take a big overpay to get Draisaitl to Montreal, but if they put him on a line with Dach and Celebrini that would be amazing.

16 févr. à 14 h 23

#10

Suzuki_Cup

Rejoint: mars 2020

Messages: 771

Mentions "j'aime": 301

Quoting: ht42

Stamkos

That would be amazing. He would add great leadership to our very young group, especially if we trade Savard.
If he is ready to sign, I would be willing to give him like 10x2. We don't need that money short term

16 févr. à 14 h 38

#11

Garak

Rejoint: juin 2019

Messages: 10,812

Mentions "j'aime": 10,564

Personally, I think I would rather draft Hagens than Celebrini. But, both will more than likely have great careers.

16 févr. à 15 h 23

#12

ht42

Rejoint: avr. 2022

Messages: 2,406

Mentions "j'aime": 682

Quoting: Suzuki_Cup

He is now at 8,5M and he haved better stats than now when he signed that.

My guess is that he will gonna want 7M - 7,5M. My offer will gonna like 7,25M x 3 seasons.

I think Montreal and Detroit as the top 2 likely spot for Stamkos if he hits the free agency.

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