If only there were 1600 previous iterations of this you could reference with a quick search.

Puke

*If management got fired and Jenner became available

Yes, that's about what it would take. For Toronto specifically, Columbus would prefer Minten instead of Robertson, and adjust one of the 1sts to a later pick (3rd?) to match. We've got plenty of undersized middle-6 wingers, too, with more on the way. Getting a top-6 potential center prospect back to replace Jenner would be much preferred. That way, Toronto doesn't lose a current roster player either (assuming Reaves isn't considered a "roster player").

I think Toronto would put him at 2C and move Tavares to the wing, though. 3 cracks at a Cup with a 2C that costs you under $4M, and you keep your roster players and top prospect (Cowan).

Knies - Matthews - Marner
Tavares - Jenner - Nylander
Bertuzzi - Domi - Robertson
McMann - Holmberg - Gregor

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It is a quality issue. He is the captain and has term at a very affordable cap hit. Compensation would be massive. I truly don’t think Toronto has the prospects or assets to pull off this trade.

Quality is the issue, and that's why I don't see Columbus trading a Fantilli or Jiricek, or even a Johnson, since they have such high ceilings. If Jenner gets traded, I don't think it's critical to get a superstar-quality/top-10 pick caliber piece back. He's a top-6/middle-6 tweener on a great deal, on the wrong side of 30. Trading him would be signaling a massive leadership shift more than anything.

This is a pretty good compensation IMO. I'd be looking for a 1st, another pick, and a top-6 prospect back that has an outside shot of replacing Jenner's production. If the current center market pushed Toronto to move Cowan (who's got top-line potential) and a 1st for Jenner, I'd be stoked.

Comparing it to a Jiricek to TOR deal, that's a situation where Toronto doesn't have the assets to pull it off (unless they lost their minds and decided to trade Matthews). He's a young, cost-controlled RD under team control for years, and someone we don't have a replacement for, so we need a single star-caliber piece coming back to consider moving him (i.e. top-3 pick, or other young 1RD). For Jenner, he's not looking like a long-term top-6 C with Fantilli and Sillinger developing the way they are, so we don't necessarily need a 1C coming back. But if a Cowan or Minten or similar develop into a 2C and push Silly to 3C, that's great.

This is again presuming management gets fired first, and then new management makes Jenner publicly available. Jarmo isn't ever going to move him.

I think you are being pretty generous to Minten. I see him as a potential future 3C, hes a similar level of prospect as LDBB in our pipeline. He would be a good prospect to get, but i wouldnt call him a top-6 prospect.

I might be, I'd call his ceiling a defensive 2C, kind of like Jenner. Not going to wow you, mostly north-south, but at least a decent shot at replacing Jenner for that role if LDBB or Sillinger aren't a fit/don't pan out to expectations. My preference is Cowan, but I doubt Toronto moves him.

For each:
Cowan + 2024 1st probably gets it done
Minten + 2024 1st + 2024 NYI 3rd probably gets it done

If Reaves is coming back, add another 3rd or 4th to each.

Forgive me if I’m not thrilled with the top prospects from a weak pool (28th in Wheeler’s current pool rankings series, ongoing through this month) and firsts from playoff teams for a player who fills a void on a team right now. Cowan was seen as an egregious reach last summer, and Minten was dreadful at this year’s WJC. I’m not opposed to an off-season trade of Jenner, nor one next year. But this year is not the right time, especially for that return.