Slafkovsky

If Verbeek have the 5th overall pick for Zegras he would immediately pul’ the trigger. Forget Slaf there 0 chance of happening. You’re being completely delusional.

We aren’t trading a guy who has shown he can produce for just a pick

We need a major asset to think about moving Zegras

You will be dissapointed a lot if Zegras is traded this summer. If you think you are getting a first overall pick for Zegras you are completely out of your mind. Each year that you keep Zegras and he get closer to Ufa he lost big value. Especially if those trade rumors continue, Zegras will definitely want out of Anaheim and go play for a big market where he is destined to play. He will get endorsements money, more visibility and will be playing in front of a full building each night. You will end up with what Winnipeg received for Dubois. So a 5th overall pick is pretty damn a good return especially in a draft like 2024

I think we gotta be reasonable here, and that’s clearly too much

First, I don’t think the deal happens at all until the pick is actually up, because I would imagine there would only be a couple players that Verbeek would see as worth trading Z for in this draft. So he’d want to be sure they’re actually available at MTL’s pick. 5th overall vs 7th is irrelevant, it’s really just whether or not his guy is up for grabs

Then it comes down to value. I agree that Rein, Slaf, and Hutson would be too much value. But draft picks have a lot of risk (and take time), and a back-to-back 22 year old 60pt scorer is near the ceiling of what you’d be hoping for. My guess is that it’d still take a prospect one tier down from Slaf/Hutson in the Roy/Beck/Mesar range, but again, I think it’d only be if Verbeek really liked one of them.

So imo, the baseline of the deal is something along the lines of Zegras for Lindstrom + Beck. There might be like a mid pick somewhere in there to even it out one way or the other, but that’s my thought

I feel like if Verbeek could walk away from the draft with a combo of Levshunov, Lindstrom, and someone in the Beck tier coming in that could make it palatable to let Z go. That said. I’m also stoked to just keep Z and draft Lev

I want to reinforce what the esteemed @jded says in his excellent analysis by noting that a not-insignificant factor here is what happens with Anaheim's own pick. Let's assume that Verbeek and the scouting staff think that the two best prospects in this draft are Celebrini and Levshunov (but you can substitute anyone here for the latter, just as they surprised us with Leo Carlsson over Adam Fantilli). If we get one of those two with our own pick, the eventual "loss" from trading Zegras for what turns out to be a lesser player will be greatly diminished both psychologically and actually. If, on the other hand, both of them are gone by the time our own pick comes up, then I think that Zegras is off the table. (Basically, I'm just rephrasing jded's first point.)

Wow, this is exactly the kind of feedback I was looking for. Thank you.

It’s funny because my proposal I have locked and loaded in my not-yet-posted ACGM is MTL’s 2024 first and Beck for Zegras. I sometimes like to gauge other fan bases expectations before I post my proposals as to not hopefully be completely off the mark as I am a Habs fan and only really watch their games.

In my mind the Ducks have both of their top 6 centres of the future in Mactavish and Leo. You add Beck to that mix as your 3c shutdown guy and the future looks great. Not to mention the guy they get with that high end pick. The Habs get that young top 6 offensive talent they’ve desired. I think both teams give up major pieces but are better in the long run for what they add in this situation, but you are right it all comes down to if the guy Verbeek wants is still available at that Habs pick.

I think there is also a less ideal scenario where Hugo offers up Reinbacher for Zegras and uses the probable top 7 pick to draft a RHD replacement. But like I said, that’d be less ideal.