the big short

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Créé par: MTLaveragefan

Équipe: 2023-24 Canadiens de Montréal

Date de création initiale: 22 janv. 2024

Publié: 22 janv. 2024

Mode - plafond salarial: Basique

Description

$$$$$

Investment opportunity - trying to predict the incoming crashes and down years.

Sending assets to a team for a 2025 or 2026 first round pick, in the hopes of cashing in latter - a trade derivative for the finance bros out there ;)

(not actually even close to a derivative, put for the sake of this AGM - I don't need a text in the comment explaining why i'm incorrect - I won't read it)

Targets?

- Pittsburg: old men signed to long contracts, no picks and no prospects... but they are trying one last push for a last dance (although, always dangerous to bet against Crosby);

- Washington: The glory days seem to be over and their prospect are 3 years out.

- Dallas is a hard bet - they have some youth coming up and some players in their prime.

ALL NTC OR NMC are waived in that scenario.

Transactions

MTL

Carter, Jeff
Choix de 1e ronde en 2026 (PIT)

Détails additionnels:

It's a gamble - but that 2026 first round pick has the chance to be top 10. The core will be 38 at that time.

PIT

Matheson, Michael

MTL

Kuznetsov, Evgeny
Choix de 3e ronde en 2024 (WSH)
Choix de 1e ronde en 2025 (WSH)

WSH

MTL

Choix de 3e ronde en 2025 (COL)

Détails additionnels:

ANY TEAM looking for some goalie help at TD

COL

Allen, Jake (1 850 000 $ retained)

Détails additionnels:

a 3rd is probably the price.

MTL

Choix de 1e ronde en 2026 (DAL)

DAL

Savard, David

Rachats de contrats

Karl Alzner: 833 333 $

Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire

Joel Edmundson: 1 750 000 $ (50%)
Jeff Petry: 2 343 750 $ (50%)
Jake Allen: 1 850 000 $ (96.1%)

Repêchage	1e ronde	2e ronde	3e ronde	4e ronde	5e ronde	6e ronde	7e ronde
2024
2025
2026

FORMATION

VUE À LONG TERME

INTÉGRÉ

TEXTE INTÉGRÉ

TAILLE DE LA FORMATION	PLAFOND SALARIAL	CAP HIT	EXCÉDENTS	BONIS	ESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
23	83 500 000 $	62 872 916 $	1 170 000 $	4 392 500 $	20 627 084 $

Ailier gauche	Centre	Ailier droit
Caufield, Cole 7 850 000 $7 850 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 8	Suzuki, Nick 7 875 000 $7 875 000 $ C UFA - 7	Slafkovsky, Juraj 950 000 $950 000 $ (3 500 000 $$4M) AD, AG RFA - 2
Newhook, Alex 2 900 000 $2 900 000 $ C, AG RFA - 4	Kuznetsov, Evgeny 3 900 000 $3 900 000 $ C M-NTC UFA - 2	Roy, Joshua 835 000 $835 000 $ (57 500 $$58K) AG, AD RFA - 3
Harvey-Pinard, Rafaël 1 100 000 $1 100 000 $ AG, AD RFA - 2	Evans, Jake 1 700 000 $1 700 000 $ C UFA - 2	Ylönen, Jesse 775 000 $775 000 $ AD, AG RFA - 1
Armia, Joel 3 400 000 $3 400 000 $ AD, AG UFA - 2	Carter, Jeff 3 125 000 $3 125 000 $ AD, C NMC UFA - 1	Gallagher, Brendan 6 500 000 $6 500 000 $ AD, AG M-NTC, NMC UFA - 4
Pezzetta, Michael 812 500 $812 500 $ AG, AD UFA - 2	Stephens, Mitchell 775 000 $775 000 $ C UFA - 1

Défenseur gaucher	Défenseur droitier	Gardien de but
Guhle, Kaiden 863 333 $863 333 $ (420 000 $$420K) DG/DD RFA - 2	Barron, Justin 925 000 $925 000 $ (275 000 $$275K) DD RFA - 1	Montembeault, Samuel 1 000 000 $1 000 000 $ G UFA - 1
Struble, Jayden 867 500 $867 500 $ (57 500 $$58K) DG RFA - 2	Kovacevic, Johnathan 766 667 $766 667 $ DD UFA - 2	Primeau, Cayden 890 000 $890 000 $ G RFA - 2
Xhekaj, Arber 828 333 $828 333 $ DG/DD RFA - 1	Mailloux, Logan 875 000 $875 000 $ (82 500 $$82K) DD RFA - 3
Harris, Jordan 1 400 000 $1 400 000 $ DG/DD RFA - 2

Laissés de côté	Liste des blessés (IR)	Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
	Pearson, Tanner 3 250 000 $3 250 000 $ AG UFA - 1	Price, Carey 10 500 000 $10 500 000 $ G NMC UFA - 3
	Wideman, Chris 762 500 $762 500 $ DD UFA - 1	Dach, Kirby 3 362 500 $3 362 500 $ C, AD RFA - 3
		Dvorak, Christian 4 450 000 $4 450 000 $ C M-NTC UFA - 2

22 janv. à 9 h 41

Subbanator7667

Subbanator

Rejoint: juill. 2017

Messages: 7,442

Mentions "j'aime": 3,402

Pitt adds something small

Washington is far more likely to give up their 2024 1st if they know they're playoff bound, don't think they risk futures like that

Other two trades are probably about right depending on how the other teams view their cap space

22 janv. à 9 h 45

MONSTER1974

Rejoint: avr. 2017

Messages: 844

Mentions "j'aime": 180

A first round pick for Savard?

He’s a valuable commodity, but a first? I don’t think so.

By the way, I wouldn’t trade him. You can’t unload ALL the vets. You need to keep some of them around to chaperone the youngsters and support the young captain. Savard would stay unless wowed by an offer.

SomeonesOffended a aimé ceci.

22 janv. à 9 h 47

MTLaveragefan

Démarrer sujet

I post sometimes

Rejoint: juill. 2017

Messages: 5,777

Mentions "j'aime": 1,691

Quoting: MONSTER1974

I agree- I don't expect nor suggest that they should do all trades - mostly a question of discussing the "shorting" possibility.

There are always vets available on FA.

OldNYIfan a aimé ceci.

22 janv. à 9 h 47

brgh4life

Rejoint: juin 2019

Messages: 2,705

Mentions "j'aime": 994

Pens needs are depth scorers and defensive first LD. Carter won't waive and this isn't a good price or fit for them.

OldNYIfan et SomeonesOffended a aimé ceci.

22 janv. à 9 h 47

MTLaveragefan

Démarrer sujet

I post sometimes

Rejoint: juill. 2017

Messages: 5,777

Mentions "j'aime": 1,691

Modifié 22 janv. à 9 h 53

Quoting: Subbanator7667

I wouldn't mind WSH's 2024 first round pick.

Subbanator7667 et OldNYIfan a aimé ceci.

22 janv. à 9 h 48

HockeyManiac95

and proud of it

Rejoint: févr. 2023

Messages: 2,260

Mentions "j'aime": 1,607

Yeah Allen is not my pick for the Avs, but we'll see

SomeonesOffended, M96N29 et TJTwolf a aimé ceci.

22 janv. à 9 h 52

MTLaveragefan

Démarrer sujet

I post sometimes

Rejoint: juill. 2017

Messages: 5,777

Mentions "j'aime": 1,691

Quoting: brgh4life

Pens needs are depth scorers and defensive first LD. Carter won't waive and this isn't a good price or fit for them.

We have those as well. Harris or Struble could fit the bill (young with good skating as well).

OldNYIfan a aimé ceci.

22 janv. à 9 h 53

MTLaveragefan

Démarrer sujet

I post sometimes

Rejoint: juill. 2017

Messages: 5,777

Mentions "j'aime": 1,691

Quoting: HockeyManiac95

Yeah Allen is not my pick for the Avs, but we'll see

It's an ANY team trade - but tagging COL always brings follks to the discussion

M96N29 et HockeyManiac95 a aimé ceci.

22 janv. à 9 h 54

MONSTER1974

Rejoint: avr. 2017

Messages: 844

Mentions "j'aime": 180

Quoting: MTLaveragefan

There are always vets available on FA.

But you overpay for those players on July1st

SomeonesOffended a aimé ceci.

22 janv. à 9 h 55

#10

MTLaveragefan

Démarrer sujet

I post sometimes

Rejoint: juill. 2017

Messages: 5,777

Mentions "j'aime": 1,691

Quoting: MONSTER1974

But you overpay for those players on July1st

Meh - we have cap space and we can take on vet cap dumps.

22 janv. à 10 h 5

#11

brgh4life

Rejoint: juin 2019

Messages: 2,705

Mentions "j'aime": 994

Quoting: MTLaveragefan

We have those as well. Harris or Struble could fit the bill (young with good skating as well).

I like Harris. I think he would be a nice addition.

OldNYIfan et SomeonesOffended a aimé ceci.

22 janv. à 10 h 12

#12

All_Knowing

Rejoint: août 2020

Messages: 1,685

Mentions "j'aime": 1,055

Quoting: Subbanator7667

Quoting: MTLaveragefan

I wouldn't mind WSH's 2024 first round pick.

Caps pass

Definitely do not want Anderson (who is basically a cap dump - sorry MTL fans) and I'm just not a terribly big fan of Monahan. Agreed the Caps need to get rid of Kuzy, but would rather just buy him out at this point (rather than pay for someone to take him)

brady_t12, SomeonesOffended, jazzykiwi and 1 other person a aimé ceci.

22 janv. à 10 h 14

#13

JuanDamienNebraska

Rejoint: janv. 2023

Messages: 2,268

Mentions "j'aime": 1,167

That trade makes absolutely no sense for Pittsburgh for so many reasons that it’s not even worth typing them all out. Just know that it won’t happen.

SomeonesOffended a aimé ceci.

22 janv. à 10 h 18

#14

brady_t12

Fantasy Hockey Pro

Rejoint: juin 2016

Messages: 5,152

Mentions "j'aime": 2,281

There's nothing in there warranting the caps giving up a first round pick. If the habs want a first for Monahan, that's not coming from DC.

SomeonesOffended, jazzykiwi, All_Knowing and 1 other person a aimé ceci.

22 janv. à 10 h 19

#15

OldNYIfan

Once a Kings Fan Too

Rejoint: juin 2018

Messages: 40,526

Mentions "j'aime": 25,401

The strategy is entirely sound -- the question is whether you can implement it.

I had the same hopes for the Boston second and Pittsburgh third that the Ducks own. Well, the Pens pick may still wind up being in the top half of that round, but boy was I wrong about the Bruins pick!

SomeonesOffended et MTLaveragefan a aimé ceci.

22 janv. à 10 h 41

#16

jazzykiwi

Rejoint: mai 2022

Messages: 700

Mentions "j'aime": 236

Definitely not trading a 1st to dump kuzy. Anderson and kuzy swaps aren’t that far off in value. Kuzy has a higher hit sure but Anderson has more term

All_Knowing a aimé ceci.

22 janv. à 10 h 45

#17

Bearshark91

Rejoint: août 2020

Messages: 81

Mentions "j'aime": 41

That would be an absolute disaster of a trade for Washington

22 janv. à 11 h 2

#18

MTLaveragefan

Démarrer sujet

I post sometimes

Rejoint: juill. 2017

Messages: 5,777

Mentions "j'aime": 1,691

Quoting: All_Knowing

Fair enough - I was trying to get that one through - cap dump for cap dumps and monahan for a first. I think Anderson could fit the heavy style of WSH. But yeah, his play has not warranted the 5.5M$ he's paid.

At 3.5M$ people would not even talk about it - it's a 2M$ overpayment.

All_Knowing a aimé ceci.

22 janv. à 11 h 6

#19

MTLaveragefan

Démarrer sujet

I post sometimes

Rejoint: juill. 2017

Messages: 5,777

Mentions "j'aime": 1,691

Quoting: jazzykiwi

Definitely not trading a 1st to dump kuzy. Anderson and kuzy swaps aren’t that far off in value. Kuzy has a higher hit sure but Anderson has more term

So in theory - I could be made - especially when by the end of Anderson's contract - the team will probably enter a rebuild phase anyway. so the the longterm investment is not that bad and offset by the cap increase.

While freeing 2.5M$ from Kuzy helps, on the short term, to acquire assets for a final push with Ovy.

22 janv. à 11 h 8

#20

MTLaveragefan

Démarrer sujet

I post sometimes

Rejoint: juill. 2017

Messages: 5,777

Mentions "j'aime": 1,691

Quoting: Bearshark91

That would be an absolute disaster of a trade for Washington

Well that's the point in some way... Like the Shark deal with OTT which ended up being the 3rd overall pick.

it's banking on a team failing hard and profiteering from their future first round pick.

There are GMs who are shortsighted when it comes to extenting the window an extra year... which ends up hurting the franchise more in the long run.

22 janv. à 14 h 47

#21

HockeyManiac95

and proud of it

Rejoint: févr. 2023

Messages: 2,260

Mentions "j'aime": 1,607

Quoting: MTLaveragefan

It's an ANY team trade - but tagging COL always brings follks to the discussion

Ofc

MTLaveragefan a aimé ceci.

22 janv. à 15 h 13

#22

jazzykiwi

Rejoint: mai 2022

Messages: 700

Mentions "j'aime": 236

Quoting: MTLaveragefan

Kuzy will cost 7.8 mil next season. Anderson will cost 16.5 mil over the next 3 seasons. The Habs would need to pay the caps to get out of that contract. You don’t trade a 1 year anchor for a 3 year anchor in order to save 2.5 mil next year. And monahan isn’t worth a 1st regardless of kuzy/anderson

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Forums/Armchair-GM

the big short

Description

Transactions

MTL

PIT

MTL

WSH

MTL

COL

MTL

DAL

Rachats de contrats

Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire

Code d'intégration

Texte intégré

Question:

Options: