Modifié 6 janv. à 15 h 29
Going based off The Athletic's valuation of picks
and Tankathon's pick placements (based on the reverse standings right now), the Sharks' pick is worth 17.7 GSVA while the picks being sent their way are 6.3 (Flames), 4.3 (Oilers), and 3.1 (Avs), or a combined 13.7 GSVA. That's pretty far under the comparable value and from what I've seen looking through a few trades (very small sample size), usually the team trading up overpays according to that chart, especially involving 1st round picks.
For instance, a couple years back the Coyotes traded up from 27 (3.2) to 11 (5.7) and it also cost them 34 (2.5) and 45 (1.8), where 27 + 34 is equal in value to 11 and the 45 is a bonus throw in.
Preds traded from 40 (2.1) and 51 (1.5) for 27 (3.2).
I'd looked more up in the past but I'm too lazy to go through again and find them and do the math. I know that chart isn't universal and values vary from draft to draft based on what's available, I just think it would cost more to move up (and I wouldn't be surprised if the Oilers' pick was later than 18th).
Of course if it happens after the lottery and the Sharks drop to 2nd (12.3) or 3rd (10.2), that's a pretty significant drop in value but I assume you're making this trade to get Celebrini.