I wouldn't trade Gavrikov for Ullmark 1-for-1, and I'm not even a big Gavrikov guy.

Ullmark gets ridiculously underrated on this website. He's the reigning Vezina winner and has a .926 this year. He is a franchise goalie.

I wouldn’t trade for Gavrikov at his salary, so we are on the same side but different.

Willy for 9 mil? LMAO

lol no

For what gavrikov does on the ice the contract is fine.

It’s more than what Hasek got when he got dealt (with 1-year in deal) after winning 6-of-8 last Vezina trophies.

Goalies don’t return much in trade value.

He’s a useful player that I wouldn’t allocate $5m for if I had a choice, so I value him as salary filler. Same with Arvidssen. Doesn’t make either player useless. Just a player whose marginal value for their salary is questionable in a trade. We have several players on the Bruins that I love to have on my team, but I would pay their salary in free agency only if other options said no

The inclusion of these players are why deals don’t happen. It makes valuations harder. Most trades on Cap Friendly try to aggregate these players for one good player.



Most great, established goalies are locked into long term contracts and haven’t been traded. This narrative of value is based on fews data points (the primary one was driven by the cap) and perpetuated by fans of teams with below average to bad goaltending.

It’s OK to suggest that you can get slightly below average production for a better dollar figure at goalie vs other positions. It’s a strategy. I’d rather have the stable goaltending, but I can understand the position.

It’s why I discount any trade with the Kings. Their leadership will go with cheap goaltending until they are no longer their leadership or lose enough to change their mind. I don’t see either happening with the way the Kings are structured right now. They are good enough to try the strategy.

LA laughs at that pretty hard. They decline it too.

1st/Connors. Reasonable. 1st/Hughes reasonable. That…joke.

There are plenty of goalie trades. They are more often to be moved (relative to skater) when a contract is up, either RFA or even UFA rights. But if you look back at history of returns for goalies, you will find the returns to be fairly muted. The position itself is riskier than others, so the risk premium lowers their value across the board.

Look at the great, established goalies in the league. How many are signed to long term deals and have been with their franchise for years?

There are lots of goalie trades on the fringe of average players and prospects. That’s kind of like every other position in the league with maybe the exception of center. Yet that’s also the weirdest one because a lot of premium talents and prospects suck at face-offs and don’t play defense.

Use a comparison that happened this century.

That's like using the Gretzky trade as a blueprint for what a Mcdavid trade would look like.

Franchise goalies are rarely on the market, and when they are, a team isn't moving one unless you make it worth it to them.

The fact is LA needs a goalie to have any consistent playoff success, and boston won't move half of the best goalie tandem in the NHL unless its worth it to them.

One reason there are few franchise goalie trades…is teams owning goalie won’t feel like market pays full price for goalie. Look at history of goalie deals…especially for goalies without term. It’s underwhelming.

I have posted many times on here before.

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/4311544

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There have been ~260 goalie trades in cap era. Here is how many returned each of the following:

A 1st round pick: 16 (total)
A 1st round pick: 9 (without other players included)
A top-100 prospect: 7 (total)
A top-100 prospect: 5 (w/o others)
A top-50 prospect: 3
A top-25 prospect: 1
A top-10 prospect: 0

A 1st + top-100 prospect: 4 (total)
A 1st + top-100 prospect: 3 (w/o others)
A 1st + top-50 prospect: 0
A 1st + top-25 prospect: 0
A 1st + top-10 prospect: 0

Some food for thought...
-- The last goalie to return a top-100 prospect and a 1st was Kuemper (2021).
-- The last goalie to return two 1st rounders was Curtis Joseph (1995).
-- The last goalie to return a top-25 prospect was Andrew Raycroft (2006).
-- The only rental goalie to get multiple top-100 prospects and a 1st was Ryan Miller (2014).
-- Vezina finalists to be traded in following year: MAF (2021), Lehner (2020), Bishop (2017), Bryzgalov (2011), Hasek (2001), Turek (2001), Carey (1997), Hrudey (1989), Barrasso (1988)
-- Goalies are twice as likely to be traded when their contracts are up

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Top goalie trades are rare. But they are rare because high returns are limited. Since the incentives aren't there to move goalies, most teams will keep their netminders until their contracts run out. Which is why, in the end, I expect Hellebuyck, Saros to finish their deals with their respective clubs...and why I believe Swayman gets moved before Ullmark.


https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/4227727


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Summer Goalie Trades

2022 Vanecek (RFA) -- 2nd, 3rd (with 2nd)
2022 Husso (UFA rights) -- 3rd (7th in Vezina voting)
2021 Kuemper (1 year) -- 2022 1st, cond pick, Timmins (was top-10 in Vezina in 2019, 2020)
2021 Hill (RFA) -- Korenar, 2nd
2021 Fleury (1 year) -- Contract of retiring player
2020 Allen (1 year) -- Two 7ths
2020 Murray (RFA) -- 2nd, Gruden
2019 Reimer (2 years) -- Darling, 6th
2018 Grubauer (RFA) -- 2nd (w/ $5.5m cap space - Orpik)
2017 Raanta (1 year) -- 1st (#7oa), DeAngelo (with Stepan)
2016 Andersen (RFA) -- 1st (#30oa), 2nd
2016 Elliott (1 year) -- 2nd, 3rd (9th in Vezina voting)
2016 Bernier (1 year) -- Conditional pick
2015 Jones (RFA) -- 2016 1st, Kuraly
2015 Lehner (2 years) -- 1st (#21oa) (with Legwand)
2015 Talbot (1 year) -- 2nd, 3rd, 7th (7th in Vezina)
2015 Niemi (UFA rights) -- 7th
2013 Schneider (2 years) -- 1st (#9oa)
2013 Bernier (RFA) -- Scrivens, Frattin, 2nd
2012 Bobrovsky (1 year) -- 2nd, 4th, 4th
2012 Lindback (RFA) -- Caron, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd (with Wilson, 7th)
2011 Varlamov (RFA) -- 2012 1st, 2nd
2011 Bryzgalov (UFA rights) -- 3rd, 3rd
2010 Halak (RFA) -- for a top-25 prospect, top-100 prospect (Lars Eller, Ian Schultz) (10th Vezina)
2008 Chris Mason (UFA rights) -- 4th (was top-10 in Vezina)
2007 Toskala (1 year) -- 1st (#13oa), 2nd, 4th (with Mark Bell)
2007 Vokoun (4 years) -- 2008 1st, 2nd, 2nd (6th in 2006 Vezina)
2007 Toivonen (ELC) -- Soderberg
2007 Fernandez (2 years) -- Kalus, 4th (10th in 2006 Vezina)
2006 Raycroft (RFA) -- Tuukka Rask (2004 Calder winner, 2004 top-5 Vezina)
2006 Cloutier (1 year) -- 2nd, 3rd
2006 Luongo (RFA) -- Bertuzzi, Allen, Auld
2004 Lalime (1 year) - cond 4th (5th in 2003 Vezina)
2003 Hedberg (1 year) -- 2nd
2003 Cechmanek (2 years) -- 2nd (was top-10 in 2001, 2003 Vezina)
2002 Tugnutt (2 years) -- 1st (#20oa) (with 2nd)
2001 Turek (1 year) -- Brathwaite, Tkaczuk, Varlamov, 9th (with 4th) (was Vezina runner-up in 2000)
2001 Hasek (1 year) -- 2002 1st, Kozlov (following Vezina win, 4 of last 5 Vezina's)
2000 Weekes (RFA following year) -- 1st (#5oa), 4th (with 2nd)
1999 Turek (RFA) -- 2nd
1998 Terreri (3 years) -- 2nd
1998 Ranford (1 year) -- 2nd, 3rd
1997 Vernon (2 years) -- Two 2nds (with 5th)
1996 Schwab (RFA) -- Jeff Reese, 2nd, 8th
1995 Joseph (RFA) -- Two 1sts (1996 & 1997) (was top-10 in Vezina in 1993, 1994)
1995 Dafoe (2 years) -- 1996 1st, 4th (with Khristich)
1994 Vernon (1 year) -- Steve Chiasson
1993 Hextall (1 year) -- 1st (#14oa), Fitzpatrick (with 1st (#23oa))
1993 Vanbiesbrouck (1 year) -- Lidster (later taken in expansion draft) (top-10 1992 Vezina)
1992 Burke (RFA rights) -- Holik, 2nd (with Weinrich)
1989 Peeters (2 years) -- 5th (with Acton) (10th in Vezina voting)
1987 Malarchuk (2 years) -- Duchesne, Haworth, 1st (#15oa) (with Dale Hunter) (4th in 1986 Vezina)
1984 Melanson (1 year) -- 1985 1st
1984 Wamsley (4 yr) -- 1st (#8oa), 2nd (with 2nd, 2nd, 3rd)


In-Season or Deadline Goalie Trades

2023 Korpisalo (rental) -- Quick, 1st, 3rd (with Gavrikov)
2022 Fleury (rental) -- 2nd (following 2021 Vezina win)
2020 Lehner (rental) -- Demin, Subban, 2nd (3rd in 2019 Vezina)
2017 Bishop (rental) -- 4th (2016 Vezina runner-up)
2014 Miller (rental) -- Stewart, Carrier, Halak, 1st, 3rd (with Steve Ott)
2014 Berra (RFA at end of year) -- 2nd
2013 Bishop (RFA at end of year) -- Conacher, 4th
2012 Bishop (RFA at end of year) -- 2nd
2011 Anderson (rental) -- Brian Elliott (was 4th in 2010 Vezina)
2010 Giguere (1.5 yrs) -- Toskala, Blake
2010 Toskala (rental) -- Giguere (with Blake)
2010 Toskala (rental) -- Curtis McElhinney
2009 Leclaire (rental) -- Vermette (with 2nd)
2008 Huet (rental) -- 2nd
2006 Roloson (rental) -- 1st, 3rd (extended for 3 yrs after season)
2003 Kiprusoff (RFA at end of year) -- 2nd
2001 Khabibulin (2.5 years) -- Zainullin, Johnson, Mara, 2nd (with Neckar)
1999 Vernon (rental) -- Radek Dvorak (with 3rd) (1997 Conn Smythe)
1998 Snow (1.5 years) -- Sean Burke
1997 Carey (1.5 years) -- Oates, Ranford, Tocchet (with 3rd, Allison, Carter) (following 1996 Vezina win)
1996 Ranford (rental) -- 1st, Brown, Czerkawski
1995 Terreri (rental) -- 2nd
1995 Roy (rental) -- Kovalenko, Rucinsky, Thibault (with Keane) (extended 3yr)
1994 Cheveldae (2 years) -- Bautin, Essensa (with Drake) (7th in 1993 Vezina)
1992 Fuhr (2 years) -- 1993 1st, Andreychuk, Puppa
1992 Tugnutt (??) -- Martin Rucinsky (1991 top-10 Vezina)
1992 Wregget (rental) -- Benning, Recchi, 1st (with Samuelsson, Tocchet, 3rd)
1989 Wregget (3 years) -- Two 1989 1sts
1989 Hrudey (rental) - Crossman, Fitzpatrick, McBean (3rd in 1988 Vezina)
1988 Barrasso (2.5 years) -- Bodger, Shannon (with 4th) (1988 Vezina runner-up)
1988 Moog (rights) -- 2nd, Courtnall, Ranford (was 5th in 1988 Vezina voting)
1987 Jensen (1 year) -- Garry Galley (was top-10 in 1986 Vezina)
1986 Froese (??) -- Kjell Samuelsson, 1989 2nd (1986 Vezana runner-up)

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*** NOTE: The trades below are just examples using comps...not recommendations. Just ignore them. Nothing to accept or decline here. And the signings...ignore them. This is just about posting the list. ***

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The Keumper trade you cited literally proved my point. Ullmark is a better goalie than Keumper and will, therefore, get moved for more.

Right now, Gavrikov is not worth as much as a top-100 prospect, and the king's first-rounder is likely a later pick (especially with Ullmark in net).

According to your own blueprint (the Keumper trade), this deal is in line with historical comparisons.

Ullmark may get player and 1st…I wasn’t trying to argue that (or trade above) was unrealistic. I was saying the reactions of “Ulmark gets more” were hard to justify. There is a ceiling on goalie returns…and many asking prices are well above that ceiling.

You presented everything (did cap friendly miss the Gustavson for Talbott deal?) and frankly most of it was irrelevant noise with goaltenders who are average to below average, but I did agree with most of the statement above. I appreciated it all the same

2 goalies on a roster vs 14 forwards vs 7 defenseman on a standard roster is going to depress the value of goaltenders until free agency kicks in.

Most successful GM’s would rather take the wins a premium goalie gives vs the uncertainty of a back half of the first round pick. The composite when you take the surprise success, the AHL journeyman of a late first round pick is probably something like Tanner Pearson or Trent Frederic. Useful players, but most GM’s want to be employed and the likelihood of an Adrian Kempe or a. David Pastrnak at the end of round 1 is like hitting a million dollar jack pot on a slot machine. It’s not the norm.

I expect that both Ullmark and Gustavson when the time comes will make it to free agency because they will be replaced with younger players that can elongate a GM’s job prospects. Swayman definitely stays unless someone pays a premium for him, which is basically every good young player BTW. The rest of the premium goalies will be with their current team until their late 30s or when the cap situation pushes them out

I will find it ironic that every GM that will be fired for merit based on their record will likely have a horrendous goalie situation that was misread.

If Ullmark is traded, it will be for a premium player or significant draft capital. If not, he rotates its Swayman for 2 years and then leaves for big money. I’m OK either way. We get two years of premium goalie performance for $5m. Sign me up if I am a GM.

I could see a trade, but it would be with a team like Edmonton whose showing the pitfalls of doing something stupid with goaltending