Quoting: TheEarthmaster
Just so we're clear I'm team "take the best player available". If the best player available is a winger, then of course take the winger. If you're picking first overall again and it's another top-lineish center, then take that guy, even if you have Bedard.
What you don't want to be doing is playing this game of "let's draft for what we think we might need in a few years when we're good again" because you just can't predict that with any degree of accuracy. We don't know what Korchinski's career is going to look like. He'll probably be good. He might not be. He might blow out his knee in October 2024 and never play again. You don't want to be in a position where you took a player you didn't like as much but thought would fit your penciled in roster than a better player at a position of strength. A perfect example of this is when Buffalo took Benson. They've got wingers coming out of their ears in the NHL and AHL. But Benson was so good he made the opening night roster anyway.
With regards to Adam Fox, yeah if you're lucky enough to have an elite talent who only wants to play for your team and will manipulate things so that that happens then I suppose it is possible to get a RHD. But compared to the amount of good wingers available and how often NHL GMs under-value them, it's not remotely comparable. Again, look at New Jersey. They grew Jesper Bratt and they traded for Timo Meier. Both of those guys are making what they're worth. They didn't save a bunch of money on Bratt just because he's homegrown. Did the Blues overpay for Buchnevich? The Panthers for Tkachuk or Verhaghe? Conversely, look at the Leafs- did any of those guys take a paycut just because they were Maple Leafs draft picks? Again, it's about being smart. Don't sign a 28 year old guy to a 7 year contract to fill your winger spot. Then you will overpay and that will be a bust. I don't think the Blues/Panthers/Devils are regretting any of those trades/signings.
And I just can't agree on this Canucks thing. Better than Willander in the very very beginning of their draft+1 season is not much when Willander was kind of a reach in the first place. Pettersson, Hirose, Kudryavtsev, the two guys you mentioned- it's not impossible that those guys will turn into something but this is not a prospect pool I would be losing my mind over. It is overwhelmingly likely that all of them will be mediocre NHL players at best. There is no top end talent in the Canucks' system right now.
So far, it looks like the next 5 to 10 players after the top 3 in the 2024 draft are in and around the same tier and could go in any order. So, yeah, BPA and then team need. So, If there are players in the same tier, then you take the player of that tier who plays a position of need. Although, Levshunov is making a pretty good case to put himself solidly into that number 4 spot above the rest. There are too many unknown variables at this point to argue about this in any meaningful way, though. Also, in most cases, BPA is completely subjective and, more often than not, completely wrong even when there is consensus. The Blackhawks also have to pick the best player FOR THEMSELVES, and have stated as much on multiple occasions that they are drafting for CHI and no one else.
As far as "being better than Willander", I said "looking better" not "are better." There is a difference. Context is important, I try not to speak in absolutes for this very reason. BUT when it comes to Brzucewicz, he was a very highly rated prospect going into the 22-23 season, significantly higher than Willander, and dropped because he didn't have a great season, and Willander jumped up significantly last year with his skating and a very strong second half of the season. Willander wasn't much of a reach, though, and I still think he could be a great piece for VAN in the future.
So, yeah, it's difficult to quantify and predict, but that is KD's job and what he gets paid millions of dollars for. That is why they have built an extensive analytics system custom tailored to their wants, needs, and overall vision. That's why they have professional scouts that specialize in certain regions, leagues, and/or positions. The reality is RHD is our pipelines biggest need. Where it makes sense to draft RHD is completely TBD. But, again, at this point, personally, I'm not taking ANY D-man over Celebrini, Eiserman, or Demidov. I am completely open to that opinion changing over the next 6 months, but that is where I currently stand.
Also, I am not talking about discounts or anything. But, being patient gives you time to see what you have and what you need. Jumping the gun to compete quicker is the fastest way to get your team in trouble. We can certainly reach out for long term pieces, but now is not the time. Also, our draft picks now are worth more than NJD's picks were in the Meier trade. We need to ice a team that is almost there before we start throwing 1st round picks on guys.