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The Primeau Situation

Créé par: MontysPython
Équipe: 2023-24 Canadiens de Montréal
Date de création initiale: 1 août 2023
Publié: 1 août 2023
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
Here's a reason why Kent Hughes' hand is going to kind of be forced in relation to a kid under much scrutiny and pressure-Cayden Primeau

The question that other teams and Kent might ask themselves...Us Cayden Primeau the next Samuel Montembeault story?

Hear me out:
In 2015 the Florida Panthers selected Sam Montembeault in the 3rd round 77th overall.

He'd spend the next 6 years in the organization, brewing and learning from the man himself Roberto Luongo. After some struggles and other successes, he'd amass 19gs as a Panther. He'd post some very good games as a young 22yo, but consistency and Bob and then the emergence of Spencer Knight(and drafting in the first place) pushed him into no-mans land.

Now, Cayden's journey has been a little different. He was drafted 7th in 2017 as pretty much an afterthought. His USHL stats weren't too promising. However, he exploded in College, winning a Richter and making a name for himself. This would end up hurting him. The expectations this created as well as a lack of a development program would throw him into the spin cycle. So far as a 23yo, he's started in 17 NHL games, 2 less than Monty. His stats leave a ton to be desired, but his AHL stats are fantastic.

The reason for this is he can't yet adjust to both NHL speed of play(exhibited in his sometimes panicky movements which move him out of position, and allow a gaping net.

I believe he can be fixed. With Carey becoming more involved into the organization and him coaching Montembeault, he could be a perfect mentor for Cayden. Kent created a problem for himself signing Jake Allen to that extension, and admitted that Cayden's time was done as a Hab when using 1/3 of his picks on goalies.

I believe we shouldn't give up on Cayden, he's barely gotten the time he needs. It's not that his style of play just works in the AHL, he's just more confident there, and in the position that requires the MOST self confidence in hockey, he should be given some. If not, who knows he could very well become the next Sam Montembeault.

This next year will be Cayden Primeau's toughest. Will he be that 3G that will never really play? Can he bring his play to NHL speeds? And, will a team in need jump on him when he hits waivers?

My vote is on trading Allen, picking up a 3G who can switch in with Primeau(after obviously solving the forward and defense surplus). I truly believe this bit of confidence given to him will help him blossom into a solid goaltender, and better person for it. He's still just 23(24 in 10 days).

Below(1-6) are my targets for that aforementioned vet 3G. (7-8 are potential replacements for both Allen and Primeau) Note that Allen will have more value a quarter of the way into the season at 50% retained for injuries(Quick, Stolarz, or Varly go down, need someone who can put in 20gp as a backup type scenario(That Hughes extension imo is his worst move))
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1 août 2023 à 7 h 47
#1
LBS
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I read your explanation but, honestly Primeau needs to leave. Goalies take a long time to develop and also need to play with confidence.
Look at a guy like Dubnyk, couldn't find any real success in Edmonton, went to Nashville, Habs(AHL) and Zona before finally exploding in Minny for 5-6 years.
Look at Charlie Lindgren that the Habs had, he couldn't get to the NHL, went to STL did great and is now a backup in Washington. There are more examples but, I'm sure you know
I don't think Primeau will ever be a starter for the Habs a change of scenery will probably help him more than anything
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1 août 2023 à 8 h 35
#2
HuGo is a Boss GM
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Quoting: lowblocksniper
I read your explanation but, honestly Primeau needs to leave. Goalies take a long time to develop and also need to play with confidence.
Look at a guy like Dubnyk, couldn't find any real success in Edmonton, went to Nashville, Habs(AHL) and Zona before finally exploding in Minny for 5-6 years.
Look at Charlie Lindgren that the Habs had, he couldn't get to the NHL, went to STL did great and is now a backup in Washington. There are more examples but, I'm sure you know
I don't think Primeau will ever be a starter for the Habs a change of scenery will probably help him more than anything


I agree. Both can be true:

Primeau needs a fresh start

and

Primeau will be a good backup in the NHL at 26-30

If no one picks him up on waivers, he's still probably not in the long term plans of the Habs. He had his shot and the drafting of 3 goalies this year shows that they are not very high on Primeau's NHL upside.
1 août 2023 à 8 h 49
#3
Subbanator
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I'm hoping Primeau can be Lavals starter and then transition into the NHl after the TDL where they move Allen. But either way Primeau needs to start as many games as possible and to me that's Laval this year before become Monty's back up, full time, next year
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1 août 2023 à 8 h 57
#4
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Quoting: Subbanator7667
I'm hoping Primeau can be Lavals starter and then transition into the NHl after the TDL where they move Allen. But either way Primeau needs to start as many games as possible and to me that's Laval this year before become Monty's back up, full time, next year


I wish and hope that plays out ... But somehow I see him getting picked up after training camp on waivers.
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1 août 2023 à 9 h 36
#5
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His AHL stats really haven't been fantastic though, apart from the one playoff run. His regular season sv% has varied between .908 and .909 in each of the past 4 years. Those are good numbers for a 20 year old, but not overly promising for a 23 year old. More concerning, they show no growth.

Progress towards the NHL should look something like Stuart Skinner:

20: .879 (AHL)
21: .892 (AHL)
22: .914 (AHL), .868 (NHL)
23: .920 (AHL), .913 (NHL)
24: ---------------, .914 (NHL)

Or even Olivier Rodrigue:

20: .894 (AHL)
21: .886 (AHL)
22: .912 (AHL)

You should see progression at any given level. I'm not seeing that with Primeau. I don't think he's ready for the NHL.
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1 août 2023 à 9 h 39
#6
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Quoting: jonh514
I wish and hope that plays out ... But somehow I see him getting picked up after training camp on waivers.

Any team that picks him up would have to keep him on their NHL roster though, and he's not an NHL goalie. I really don't see anyone bothering, to be honest. 24 year old goalies who aren't good enough to play in the NHL are myriad.
1 août 2023 à 10 h 8
#7
You know nothing JS
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Keep Allen and send Primeau back to the AHL. He's just not NHL material.
1 août 2023 à 12 h 57
#8
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Quoting: CD282
His AHL stats really haven't been fantastic though, apart from the one playoff run. His regular season sv% has varied between .908 and .909 in each of the past 4 years. Those are good numbers for a 20 year old, but not overly promising for a 23 year old. More concerning, they show no growth.

20: .879 (AHL)
21: .892 (AHL)
22: .914 (AHL), .868 (NHL)
23: .920 (AHL), .913 (NHL)
24: ---------------, .914 (NHL)

Or even Olivier Rodrigue:

20: .894 (AHL)
21: .886 (AHL)
22: .912 (AHL)

You should see progression at any given level. I'm not seeing that with Primeau. I don't think he's ready for the NHL.


Progress towards the NHL should look something like Stuart Skinner:

There's no Formula for Goalie development , its why people like Samsonov,Vanacek,Blackwood,ext arent qualified
Its why Lehner, Ullmarks ,and Bobrovsky are let go or traded

Primeau showed consistency and played well in the AHL given the Dcore he had
He went to a ECF game 7 after MTL pilleged most of the AHL roster making them ineligible.
I mean Norlinder had to play 4th line Center until i believe it was Heineman showed up
They got there with ECHL guys and Condotta from NCAA, Heineman from Europe and i believe Roy from QMJHL.
Primeau stood on his head stealing games.

Last year MTL made a lot of their players ineligible for the Playoffs again leaving their Center depth obliterated and took their top RD Barron.
He still had a pretty good showing but AHL is stupid and has a Best of 3 in first round , Best of 5 in second round and best of 7 in third and fourth rounds.
So a bad start in the first round can put even a good Goalie out of the playoffs.

I like his progress given the back ups we gave him and how crowded the net was.
Dobes is the first Goalie on his level he's played with and this will be the first time he'll have support like NHL goalies have.

Not saying he's Carey's replacement but there's no reason he cant be our Huet
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1 août 2023 à 13 h 5
#9
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Quoting: Billy739
Progress towards the NHL should look something like Stuart Skinner:

There's no Formula for Goalie development , its why people like Samsonov,Vanacek,Blackwood,ext arent qualified
Its why Lehner, Ullmarks ,and Bobrovsky are let go or traded

Primeau showed consistency and played well in the AHL given the Dcore he had
He went to a ECF game 7 after MTL pilleged most of the AHL roster making them ineligible.
I mean Norlinder had to play 4th line Center until i believe it was Heineman showed up
They got there with ECHL guys and Condotta from NCAA, Heineman from Europe and i believe Roy from QMJHL.
Primeau stood on his head stealing games.

Last year MTL made a lot of their players ineligible for the Playoffs again leaving their Center depth obliterated and took their top RD Barron.
He still had a pretty good showing but AHL is stupid and has a Best of 3 in first round , Best of 5 in second round and best of 7 in third and fourth rounds.
So a bad start in the first round can put even a good Goalie out of the playoffs.

I like his progress given the back ups we gave him and how crowded the net was.
Dobes is the first Goalie on his level he's played with and this will be the first time he'll have support like NHL goalies have.

Not saying he's Carey's replacement but there's no reason he cant be our Huet


exactly. He'll be a fine backup if he's given confidence. He needs time, but the problem is waivers.
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1 août 2023 à 13 h 36
#10
Billy739
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Quoting: Mglgoalie33
exactly. He'll be a fine backup if he's given confidence. He needs time, but the problem is waivers.


Yes and No
If we do it early in Camp when like 60% of the league puts their players through on Waivers, i think we're fine.
We can call him back up after for 9 games i think before he requires waivers again if something like Allen gets hurt.
If Allens out long term i think Primeau stays in a tandem with Monty and Allen gets moved ,put on LTIR or waived
Primeau's not as far off as most people think

Waivers is only an issue if we miss that window.
That said im almost hoping Allen gets injured in camp again
Primeau i think takes full advantage of playing Tandem with Montembault who now has Carey Price working with him as his Trainor and will likely help Primeau too.
Allen has become Kent Hughes version of Karl Alzner. Which hurts cause as a NBer i was this close to seeing Allen win a cup with MTL a dream i had for years... but that was with Price as #1.

Without Price we've had Allen go from never on LTIR before to always on LTIR since.(not an exaggeration sadly)
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1 août 2023 à 14 h 17
#11
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Quoting: Billy739
Yes and No
If we do it early in Camp when like 60% of the league puts their players through on Waivers, i think we're fine.
We can call him back up after for 9 games i think before he requires waivers again if something like Allen gets hurt.
If Allens out long term i think Primeau stays in a tandem with Monty and Allen gets moved ,put on LTIR or waived
Primeau's not as far off as most people think

Waivers is only an issue if we miss that window.
That said im almost hoping Allen gets injured in camp again
Primeau i think takes full advantage of playing Tandem with Montembault who now has Carey Price working with him as his Trainor and will likely help Primeau too.
Allen has become Kent Hughes version of Karl Alzner. Which hurts cause as a NBer i was this close to seeing Allen win a cup with MTL a dream i had for years... but that was with Price as #1.

Without Price we've had Allen go from never on LTIR before to always on LTIR since.(not an exaggeration sadly)


well said. Hughes put himself here sadly, Allen contract not looking like his others. At least it's not Murray or Merzlikens
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2 août 2023 à 16 h 43
#12
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Quoting: Mglgoalie33
well said. Hughes put himself here sadly, Allen contract not looking like his others. At least it's not Murray or Merzlikens


I'd swap for Elvis, i know his issue
You can literally see his Decline after all his Shot Blockers went and they switched to more Offensive Dmen.
They went from Werenksi,S.Jones, D.Savard, R.Murray, A.Peeke, M.Nutivara and V.Gavrikov to losing Jones , Savard Murray and Nutivara basically overnight.
They didnt replace them either it was Jake Bean, Nick Blankenburg, Gabe Carlsson, Gavin Beyruther, and the only 2 real replacement in Boqvist

He lost all his Shot blocking experienced D with Size and got a cluster F**K Dcore played in front of him until this past off season when CBJ made some pretty good moves
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2 août 2023 à 17 h 13
#13
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Quoting: Billy739
I'd swap for Elvis, i know his issue
You can literally see his Decline after all his Shot Blockers went and they switched to more Offensive Dmen.
They went from Werenksi,S.Jones, D.Savard, R.Murray, A.Peeke, M.Nutivara and V.Gavrikov to losing Jones , Savard Murray and Nutivara basically overnight.
They didnt replace them either it was Jake Bean, Nick Blankenburg, Gabe Carlsson, Gavin Beyruther, and the only 2 real replacement in Boqvist

He lost all his Shot blocking experienced D with Size and got a cluster F**K Dcore played in front of him until this past off season when CBJ made some pretty good moves


and a swap like that would work well with the time frame. If he and his shot blockers continue last year's pace and they want a cheap goalie, in a perfect scenario that's what happens. They'll probably just go for a Hart though.
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2 août 2023 à 17 h 50
#14
Billy739
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Quoting: Mglgoalie33
and a swap like that would work well with the time frame. If he and his shot blockers continue last year's pace and they want a cheap goalie, in a perfect scenario that's what happens. They'll probably just go for a Hart though.


God i hope not
Hart isnt bad but anything over a Georgiev Return and im out.

I like Elvis and i like Lankinen
Both fit what we need short term
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2 août 2023 à 17 h 56
#15
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Quoting: Billy739
God i hope not
Hart isnt bad but anything over a Georgiev Return and im out.

I like Elvis and i like Lankinen
Both fit what we need short term


Well, Elvis fits the window and Mtl is probably off his 10 team and he is Austrian(which might help Reinbacher a tad). I see a fit there. Lankinen might be a target for contenders though, a possible bidding war which I'm afraid of getting into.
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2 août 2023 à 18 h 22
#16
Billy739
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Quoting: Mglgoalie33
Well, Elvis fits the window and Mtl is probably off his 10 team and he is Austrian(which might help Reinbacher a tad). I see a fit there. Lankinen might be a target for contenders though, a possible bidding war which I'm afraid of getting into.


Agreed.
Reinbacher will need the help and likely even more of it.
We're doing a lot of Damage to his Development by making him the first Swiss born 1st round pick to waste their time in the NL
Rest went out to QMJHL ,SHL, and Liiga.
We might need to grab Nino Neidereiter for the additional support to make sure this kid shows up.
Otherwise he wont survive the MTL media

He's in a league thats has like 13 Prospects it developed in the NHL
I mean Its a Retirement League for those who cant get jobs in KHL,SHL, Liiga, DEL or even Allsvenskan even.
Marc Antoine Pouliot,Mikko Koskinen, Daniel Winnik , Markus Granlund, David Desharnais, Brett Connonly, Christian Djoos, Marko Mueller , Alex Textier , Tyler Ennis, Jacob De La Rose, Jiri Sekac, Sven Andrighetto and Raphael Diaz.

Whats the worst part? Of all those former NHL players i like Valteri Fillipula is leading them all at 39 as he sits 5th in league Production and 4th in Assists.
Thats the league we're sending the kids to when ironically DEL has produced far more NHL talent and higher quality.
NL you learn half as much in twice as much time as the majority of their players are lifer's. Their top 100 players all time has like 3 players who were in the NHL.
The rest are guys who spent 10-15 years in the NHL and offer little to nothing in terms of developmental influence on aspiring NHL players.
Its why ironically the Swiss born end up in the DEL at a much higher rate then the NL.

At best we might get a Roman Josi after 4 years over there total but its far more likely JJ Moser is what you're getting if you develop him over there.
That said JJ Moser Sophmore year was better than most of last years habs players outside Matheson (JM had 3 pts less )
Still thats a high Price to pay for when Moser and Josi were both 2nd round picks. Only Swizz that went 1st round did so cause they developed outside the NL in Canada,Germany and Sweden mostly.

Ive been all about Support Reinbacher since about a week after the draft.
Its just baffling that they'd send him back to an inferior league to develop like he's some 2nd round nobody.
All the other 1st round picks born in Switzerland didnt play a single game in the NL as it was seen as a poor developmental choice.
But Hughes seems to be on board with it and its making me nervous.
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2 août 2023 à 18 h 29
#17
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If the Jets start the season with Hellebuyck on their roster, then you'll be able to pick up Delia on waivers before the season starts.
 
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