Another “What I would do” post. First and foremost remember I am a 3rd party observer and die-hard fans might disagree with what I say.
The Preds sit at the crossroads of obscurity and mediocrity. They can continue their push of being a fringe playoff contender with a superstar goaltender and ageing core, or they can choose to tear it down. Trading Ekholm seemed to be the first step in this organization realizing it may be time for a change. I think it will be interesting to see what direction Barry Trotz decides he wants to take the team in with his new role. It seems to me like the perfect opportunity to start retooling.
Question marks:
- What becomes of Juuse Saros? With trade rumours swirling is the time to sell high on the star goaltender now? What kind of return could you get for him? What teams need a goaltender?
- Who else could you sell to get assets back for? What promising cap dumps could you take on from contending teams?
- Who to re-sign and who to move on from. Do you stick it out with Livingstone, Foote, or Carrier, or choose to walk away from one of them?
- What should you target in returns of trades? Should you just look at picks or already developing prospects?
- Who do you target in the draft?
Trades:
- Trenin (50% retained) for Yamamoto: This is a trade I’ve seen floated around here in some variety quite a bit, as an Oilers fan I really like it and I’ve heard some Nashville fans say they wouldn’t mind it based on Yamo’s upside. The retention and the fact that Nashville is eating the contract results in the pick swaps. Here’s my reasoning: Yamo for Trenin outright would probably cost the Oilers a 4th, which climbs to a 3rd with retention. In order to trade back this year I could see them making it a 2nd next year for a 4th this year and next. NSH gets a high-value pick back and a forward upgrade for cap relief and minimal retention. The only downside I think is that it burns a retention spot.
- Saros to LAK: Basically if Korpisalo walks in free agency, or he wants more than LA is willing to pay. There were rumours about a trade to LA for Saros this past year, I don’t know if I believe them all that much but it's a great fit for a trade. The value is weird because past trades wouldn’t indicate a seller's market:
----- Gavrikov/Korpisalo for Quick/1st/3rd
----- Hill for 4th
----- Talbot for Gustavsson
----- Husso for 3rd
----- Vanecek/2nd for 2nd/3rd
----- Georgiev for 3rd/3rd/5th
----- Fleury for 2nd
-----Kuemper for Timmins/1st/3rd
Saros is clearly a cut above these guys compared to when they were traded, he is in his prime and is on a good contract. Nashville doesn’t need to trade him it would be an offer that would blow them away, regardless value would start at the high end of Kuemper, a 1st, 3rd, and prospect. Likely Saros’s value is a prospect ranking 1-3 in a teams system (depending on depth), an NHL-level young player, a 1st, and an x-factor (add-in, can be either a mid-level prospect or pick). Nashville also needs a #1 centre prospect, that is where Turcotte comes in, he’s ranked #3 (Clarke/Spence) in LA’s system. Durzi’s cap goes back, he’s a young NHL-level player. A 1st is added in 2024 as NSH has 2 in 2023 and 2025. And Pinelli is the x-factor, LA’s #7 prospect is icing on top. This takes the deal I think to LA overpaying on value, but they are legitimately a superstar goalie trade away from the cup. Losing only Durzi from the NHL roster while keeping Byfield/Clarke/Spence is worth the slight overpay. The 2nd swap is just a personal move I think either GM will make, NSH defers a 2nd to ‘25 evening out their selections, while LA avoids not having a pick until round 4 in ‘24.
- Barrie: I think the Preds should flip Barrie. This could happen either at the deadline or in the off-season. His value on that contract is likely a 3rd or 4th, if they retain half of it I think it climbs to a second. He is one of the top powerplay quarterbacks in the league, and a team with a struggling PP could use him. I got the Wings from an ACGM I saw. They need RD and help on the PP. value though, I don’t think Nashville is at a point where they want more picks, rather more prospects. As one Red Wings fan told me when I proposed Hanifin as an option for them, “We have a million LD we don’t need any more”, Sebrango is a victim of that. A former 2nd rounder couldn’t even get minutes in Grand Rapids this year considering their depth. He could be on the Admirals' top pair, while the Wings get an NHL-level RD, win-win in my opinion.
- Carrier: I think his time is up in Nashville. It was between moving him and Fabbro and I prefer Fabbro. Between Fabbro/Durzi/Livingstone/Foote I don’t think it’s worth keeping Carrier, they should try to squeeze any value he has left out. I sent him to NJ because they just lost Severson on their right side and Carrier can munch minutes for a near-league minimum contract on their bottom pair. The cost is two unsigned prospects, NJ’s 5th and 6th round picks in 2021. I mainly like them for their size and fit in Nashville's organizational depth. Power RD and Power RW, I don’t know if they have NHL upside.
DRAFT:
#15 - Gabriel Perrault LW/RW (Dynamic Playmaking LW with Hockey genes. He has incredible vision passing the puck and has elite goal-scoring skill)
#24 - Jayden Perron C (Elite Playmaking Centre, slightly undersized but has incredible offensive upside, committed to UND)
#46 - Mathieu Cataford RW (Goal Scoring RW, had 31 in Q this year. Good frame, underrated 2-way game and playmaking ability)
#47 - Beau Akey RD (Offensive minded 2-way defender)
#68 - Ethan Miedema LW (Power LW, 6’4”. Raw but the upside in potential is incredible (Trotz draft philosophy))
#79 - Andrew Gibson RD (6’3” Physical 2-Way Defenseman)
#83 - Matthew Soto RW (17, Speedy Playmaker with decent shot, Miedema teammate)
#111 - Austin Roest C (19, Over-Ager with 32 goals this last season on Seattle)
#121 - Brandon Svoboda C (Power Forward C, 6’2” 190, Committed to BU)
#143 - Austin Burnevik RW (Power Forward RW, 6’3” 190, Grinder)
#147 - Anton Maryshev LD (2-Way Russian Defender, had 12pts in 23g in MHL last season)
#175 - Milton Oscarson C/RW (20, Over-Ager, 6’6” 220, Power Forward Centre)
RFA’s:
- Glass: I want to see Cody play a full season as a top-6 centre and see if he can become what we thought he would when he was drafted. He had an ok season last year, I’d like to see him bridged around 3 million for 2 years and reassess.
- Foote/Livingstone: Bringing both of these guys back to battle for the bottom pair RD minutes, wasn’t sure about contracts.
- Asplund: Depth forward was added last year they should bring back.
Other: Depth for AHL/ECHL
UFA’s:
- I added Talbot because I figured a veteran middle-of-the-road goalie who can play 40-ish games is what they would replace Saros with. In reality, this could be anyone, I just don’t think I’d play Askarov for another year, and then call him up when Lank leaves. You don’t want anyone too good but also don’t want to have to rush Askarov in, maybe Talbot's injury history wards some teams off, really anyone could fill this void.
- Cooley: Depth goaltender.
Line-Up Changes/Notes:
- Does anything look wonky? Maybe move Lauzon up to where Durzi is and have Durzi play the left side?
- Johansen is a bit of a veteran mentor for Turcotte
- Novak: Everyone seemed to be raving about this guy, admittedly I had no clue who he is, but 43 points in 51 games, how does that guy not play in the top 6/top line?
- Comments on trades
- Who do you guys want to draft? I was 51/49 between Perrault and Stenberg. Yager would be a dream but I think he goes top 10. They might just miss out on Ritchie too.
Thanks, and let me know what you think and what you’d change.
I am aware, I am an Oilers fan who loves Barrie. This is likely a move I see them make at the deadline.
From the description, "(Barrie) He is one of the top powerplay quarterbacks in the league, and a team with a struggling PP could use him". I still think his value at best is a 2nd rounder and maybe a prospect, I might have undersold him in this trade but if that's the case something minor would come back in the deal.
It's more from the mentality of Nashville not needing any more picks but players who were high picks and already having played 1-2 years in the minors.
Great analysis from an outside perspective. The only thing i really disagree with is choosing Carrier as the odd-man out. I think he stays on a longer term deal and Foote doesn't get a QO
Great analysis from an outside perspective. The only thing i really disagree with is choosing Carrier as the odd-man out. I think he stays on a longer term deal and Foote doesn't get a QO
Thanks. I could for sure see Foote getting non-tendered. My thought was Livingstone>Carrier so you might as well trade Carriers rights to generate some value, but maybe I am undervaluing him.
Thanks. I could for sure see Foote getting non-tendered. My thought was Livingstone>Carrier so you might as well trade Carriers rights to generate some value, but maybe I am undervaluing him.
Who do you want them to take in the draft?
If Durzi was part of the equation, it would make Carrier a little bit redundant for sure. I'd like to see more of Livingstone before the decision to move on from Fabbro or Carrier is made.
At least for the first round, I would love to see a center and a defenseman. Ideally a Moore/Heidt and Pellikka/Willander. Wouldn't hate to see Perrault at #24 if he fell though
I've yet to meet one of these Preds fans that wouldn't mind trading for Pool Party.
I also often land on Gibson, Soto, & Roest at those spots, when I'm playing around with mock drafts too.
I don't love that collection of players from LA. I just see a lot of future role players.
Nurmi and Vomacka have decide to return to Europe. Cooley wants to explore free agency, and find a team with more opportunity for him.
Kudos to all the work you did here!
Thanks for the reply!
The Preds have the most fun mock draft sims of what I've done so far, the options they could go with are so different. Can't really go wrong. I like Roest although he is an over-ager, i don't really buy into that past the 4th round. Miedema is the sleeper here he's the boom or bust pick they should take in the 3rd. Soto/Pitre would be great value both 2nd rounder in another years draft.
Fair enough, i'm still high on Turcotte, I think injuries have just really hurt him.
I think Jesse is done in the NHL unfortunately and choosing to go back home.
A few thoughts here:
Trades:
- I don't love that Trenin deal. He has proven to be a good PKer, and he meshes well with Sissons on the 3rd/4th line. Sure, Yamamoto does have more upside, but I think Trenin is the better fit in the current Preds org.
- Saros deal is done. I love that trade for the Preds. Durzi is a movable piece if Trotz decides to go scorched earth-type rebuild. Pinelli offers top 6 C potential. The picks are of course great, and I also am a Turcotte fan. I think something like this could work all around.
- I would say that Barrie is far from a cap dump. He looked good for the Preds to end the year, and we could even retain on him to maximize value coming back to us in a TDL deal. I think DET is significantly underpaying.
- I'm not a fan of the Carrier deal either. He's a solid TWD and is coming off an all-rookie season. His offensive production was down, but keep in mind he didn't have a point until about 20 games into the season. The offense seemed to be behind some sort of mental lock from him, and once he got that first point, he never looked back. His points per game after that were equal to, if not better than his production from last year. I also found that his defensive game took a step forward. I think the Preds should be looking at a better return for him than this.
Signings:
- I have two things with the UFA signings. 1. Talbot should only get one year of term - I prefer the idea of a Lankinen-Askarov tandem and keeping Talbot for an extra year sort of hampers that. That tweak is a personal preference thing though. 2. Cooley won't be coming back. Askarov sort of confirmed that in the comment section of one of Cooley's insta posts.
- I would not keep Asplund. He did next to nothing for the Preds. I wouldn't even give him a qualifying offer.
- only other tweak I have with the RFA signings is that you're a tiny bit high on Livingstone. I think he probably ends up with a 1-year "prove it" deal at around 1m.
Draft:
- You're second round picks are spot on. Cataford would be a great add, and I think the Preds should go with at least one D man in the opening two rounds. My 1st round targets would be ASP (trade up to 11 to get him) or Dragicevic at 24 (I think our development staff could do a good job rounding him into a better defender). Akey and Hunter Brzustewicz would be my two 2nd round targets.
- I don't mind your first round picks at all. I think it may be a little bit of a reach for Perron. If we go C at 24, I'd hope we'd get Brindley or Honzek.
- I can't give any feedback after those two rounds, since that is where I get lost in this draft lmao.
Lines:
- the only kind of wonky thing with these lines is Tomasino. Naturally, he's an RW and he didn't perform as well in the LW role.
- This is on tiny personal preference thing, but I like Cole Smith over McCarron for the 4RW spot.
Overall, this is the best analysis I've seen from a non-Preds fan. A lot of good ideas here. I like it
If you're using the Kuemper trade as a comparable, Nashville has to retain ~25% of Saros' contract.
I still don't think LA would do it (goaltenders just don't have that much trade value), but without retention, it's not a valid comparison.
Kuemper had 1 year left on his deal and is/was way worse than Saros. It's not so much a comparison as it is a "nothing lower than this is fair value let alone even worth considering". I don't see Saros getting retention in any deal, it's just not worth it from Nashville's perspective as he only makes 5mil.
Kuemper had 1 year left on his deal and is/was way worse than Saros. It's not so much a comparison as it is a "nothing lower than this is fair value let alone even worth considering". I don't see Saros getting retention in any deal, it's just not worth it from Nashville's perspective as he only makes 5mil.
Fair enough. If that's your expectation for a trade return, I don't see Saros getting moved. There have only been a few times in the salary cap era where a goaltender was traded for a 1st round pick, and with possibly only 1 exception, the team trading the pick ended up regretting it.
A few thoughts here:
Trades:
- I don't love that Trenin deal. He has proven to be a good PKer, and he meshes well with Sissons on the 3rd/4th line. Sure, Yamamoto does have more upside, but I think Trenin is the better fit in the current Preds org.
- Saros deal is done. I love that trade for the Preds. Durzi is a movable piece if Trotz decides to go scorched earth-type rebuild. Pinelli offers top 6 C potential. The picks are of course great, and I also am a Turcotte fan. I think something like this could work all around.
- I would say that Barrie is far from a cap dump. He looked good for the Preds to end the year, and we could even retain on him to maximize value coming back to us in a TDL deal. I think DET is significantly underpaying.
- I'm not a fan of the Carrier deal either. He's a solid TWD and is coming off an all-rookie season. His offensive production was down, but keep in mind he didn't have a point until about 20 games into the season. The offense seemed to be behind some sort of mental lock from him, and once he got that first point, he never looked back. His points per game after that were equal to, if not better than his production from last year. I also found that his defensive game took a step forward. I think the Preds should be looking at a better return for him than this.
Signings:
- I have two things with the UFA signings. 1. Talbot should only get one year of term - I prefer the idea of a Lankinen-Askarov tandem and keeping Talbot for an extra year sort of hampers that. That tweak is a personal preference thing though. 2. Cooley won't be coming back. Askarov sort of confirmed that in the comment section of one of Cooley's insta posts.
- I would not keep Asplund. He did next to nothing for the Preds. I wouldn't even give him a qualifying offer.
- only other tweak I have with the RFA signings is that you're a tiny bit high on Livingstone. I think he probably ends up with a 1-year "prove it" deal at around 1m.
Draft:
- You're second round picks are spot on. Cataford would be a great add, and I think the Preds should go with at least one D man in the opening two rounds. My 1st round targets would be ASP (trade up to 11 to get him) or Dragicevic at 24 (I think our development staff could do a good job rounding him into a better defender). Akey and Hunter Brzustewicz would be my two 2nd round targets.
- I don't mind your first round picks at all. I think it may be a little bit of a reach for Perron. If we go C at 24, I'd hope we'd get Brindley or Honzek.
- I can't give any feedback after those two rounds, since that is where I get lost in this draft lmao.
Lines:
- the only kind of wonky thing with these lines is Tomasino. Naturally, he's an RW and he didn't perform as well in the LW role.
- This is on tiny personal preference thing, but I like Cole Smith over McCarron for the 4RW spot.
Overall, this is the best analysis I've seen from a non-Preds fan. A lot of good ideas here. I like it
This is one of the better analyses I've seen, NSH fans or non-NSH fans. The only thing I disagree with is the RD situation with Carrier. I see NSH and Carrier attempting to get a short-term deal done and if Durzi comes in then maybe dealing Carrier at the deadline for a bit more considering he is a solid 2-way D. This would leave Foote being the odd one out and NSH might give him a QO, but it might be just a sign and trade. If possible, maybe COL would have interest in him as a cheap 3rd-pair RD for their system considering his ties to COL and their current need for it.
Regarding the draft, the only change I would make is I'd prefer to draft a C higher in the draft. This is probably because I'm not as high on Turcotte, but I'm not opposed to being proven wrong. If Moore fell that far I'd be pretty excited to see him or Danielson/Perrault as realistic options where NSH is in the draft. Sandin-Pellikka is another enticing option, but I think he might get taken in the top 10. If Sandin-Pellikka falls to 11-13OA I'd be making calls to get him.
NSH has always had an eye out for over-agers in the later rounds (Rinne, Arvidsson, Bitetto, Lindback, Skrastins, etc). I wonder if that continues under Trotz?
tjk a aimé ceci.
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