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Another Disappointing Lottery

Créé par: rednwhite
Équipe: 2023-24 Red Wings de Detroit
Date de création initiale: 9 mai 2023
Publié: 9 mai 2023
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
Disappointed to see Detroit not move up again but it was expected. I hope Yzerman takes the best goal scorer available at 9 and then tries to add one of the following players through a trade.
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DET
  1. DeBrincat, Alex [Droits de RFA]
OTT
    What would it take?
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      What would it take?
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        What would it take?
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          What would it take?
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            What would it take?
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            9 mai 2023 à 8 h 58
            #1
            exo2769
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            I do feel a bit for DET fans. Which is saying something because DET is still CHI's rival. Don't care what the NHL did to try to change that. It'll always be that way to me. With that said, Stevie Y is the best GM in the game. DET will be fine.
            rednwhite a aimé ceci.
            9 mai 2023 à 9 h 1
            #2
            Be formless
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            CBJ fans don't want to hear it. No one has had worse lottery luck than us.

            I would have been fine with literally anyone but Chicago landing the top pick. That organization is scum.
            9 mai 2023 à 9 h 2
            #3
            LongtimeLeafsufferer
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            Modifié 9 mai 2023 à 9 h 9
            I don't know why the Wings would have any interest in trading for three upcoming UFAs....Nylander, Guentzel and DeBrincat (yes he is one). Just wait and so what comes available in the UFA market this year and next. Wings are in great position.....cap, a good rising team, in the Eastern Conference. Many UFAs will find Detroit a good landing spot.
            Yes three yeas of Connor would be a nice add, but I don't see the Jets trading him. Schiefele, Dillon, PLD, Hellebuyck, DeMelo, Wheeler are in their last season with the Jets. They need someone to play.
            exo2769 a aimé ceci.
            9 mai 2023 à 9 h 9
            #4
            Démarrer sujet
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            Quoting: Hockey_Mind
            CBJ fans don't want to hear it. No one has had worse lottery luck than us.

            I would have been fine with literally anyone but Chicago landing the top pick. That organization is scum.


            I understand you are upset after last night but how has CBJ had the worst luck out of anyone? They aren't even listed in the top 5 in this article. https://thehockeywriters.com/red-wings-worst-draft-lottery-luck/
            exo2769 a aimé ceci.
            9 mai 2023 à 9 h 10
            #5
            exo2769
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            Quoting: Hockey_Mind
            CBJ fans don't want to hear it. No one has had worse lottery luck than us.

            I would have been fine with literally anyone but Chicago landing the top pick. That organization is scum.


            They really haven't been in the lottery that many times. AND I'd argue that in 2012 by not winning...they actually won because Yak was an Oiler.
            9 mai 2023 à 9 h 24
            #6
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            Lottery is rigged i have been calling this for months, they need to rebuild the CHI reputation and this is the way to do it, also they are one of the highest earning team so Bettman needs them back to the top asap. i feel bad for DET fans and ANH fans they were ripped off by Bettman.
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            9 mai 2023 à 9 h 55
            #7
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            Konecny -> Something like NYI 1st rounder, 1 of the 3 2023 2nds, Red Savage for TK and a 2023 3rd
            rednwhite a aimé ceci.
            9 mai 2023 à 10 h 5
            #8
            Seiders on the Storm
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            Modifié 9 mai 2023 à 10 h 11
            Gary is still mad that Mister I wouldn't shake his hand after the 2009 SCF. Ilitch shook Mario's hand. Keep crying, Gary. Yzerman will still build a winner. To think all those years that Red Wings did Gary a favour by playing in the West while propping up the weak teams and flying in and out of time zones. Ungrateful prick.
            Adirn22 a aimé ceci.
            9 mai 2023 à 10 h 17
            #9
            Be formless
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            Modifié 9 mai 2023 à 11 h 6
            Quoting: rednwhite
            I understand you are upset after last night but how has CBJ had the worst luck out of anyone? They aren't even listed in the top 5 in this article. https://thehockeywriters.com/red-wings-worst-draft-lottery-luck/


            Quoting: exo2769
            They really haven't been in the lottery that many times. AND I'd argue that in 2012 by not winning...they actually won because Yak was an Oiler.


            You're basing that off of what some amateur bloggers have come up with. Try this:
            https://theathletic.com/4469516/2023/04/30/blue-jackets-draft-lottery-nhl/

            5 expert mathematicians broke down the odds and results over the last 23 years and no team has had more chances at the top pick without winning than CBJ.

            Here's a snippet in case you don't have a subscription:

            "For most of the Blue Jackets’ existence, the NHL lottery rules stated that a club could move up only four spots via the lottery. So any team that finished higher than the fifth-worst record couldn’t land the No. 1 pick. Six times between 2001-13, the Jackets fell into this category.

            But even in those seasons, the Blue Jackets still had a percentage chance to win the lottery and move higher in the lineup, and didn’t.

            When you take all of the non-playoff seasons into account, according to our experts, the Blue Jackets have had a 77.3 percent chance to win the lottery at least once in those 16 opportunities.

            In nine previous seasons, the Blue Jackets have finished low enough in the standings to have a chance at winning the first pick. Yes, they had a shot at Alex Ovechkin (2004), Sidney Crosby (2005), Auston Matthews (2016), etc.

            This season, at 13.5 percent, marks the fourth-best chance the Blue Jackets have had at landing the No. 1 pick through the years.

            In 2012, they had the best odds at 25.0 percent, but slid from No. 1 to No. 2. In 2002, the Jackets had an 18.8 percent chance to win the lottery, but slid from No. 2 to No. 3. In 2003, they had a 14.2 percent chance, but fell from No. 3 to No. 4.

            When you consider all of the seasons in which the Blue Jackets could have landed the No. 1 pick, according to our experts, the Blue Jackets have had a 69.6 percent chance of doing so at least once.

            If Anaheim wins this year’s lottery — they have the best chance at 25.5 percent — the Blue Jackets will long lament their 3-2 overtime win over the Penguins late this season, which moved them out of the pole position for the lottery.

            Still, they head into this year’s lottery with the same optimism as ever. If the ping pong balls bounce their way, they could win Bedard. And if they don’t?

            Well, according to our experts, another loss in the draft lottery this year would only make the Blue Jackets’ numbers (obviously) worse. They would have had a 73.7 percent chance likelihood of winning the No. 1 pick when you put this year’s chances into the mix.

            Moser, the data scientist from Buffalo, took all of this a step further. He ran simulations for all of the draft lotteries dating back to 2001 to determine which franchise across the entire NHL has had the most “expected” lottery wins based on their yearly finish in the standings.

            “This way,” Moser said, “we could tell just how ‘unlucky’ the Blue Jackets are compared to their peers.”

            There are four teams in the same realm with the most “expected” lottery wins: Edmonton (1.4), Columbus and Florida (1.38), and Buffalo (1.37). What stands out is that Edmonton has won four lotteries. Florida has won three. Buffalo has won two. Columbus has won zero.

            The Blue Jackets, Moser said, have been the NHL’s most unlucky club when it comes to the draft lottery with 1.38 fewer lottery wins than expected, or -1.38. The other clubs with a similar beef to the Blue Jackets are Arizona (-1.08), Los Angeles (-0.85), Ottawa (-0.75), and Carolina (-0.74).

            So, there it is. The Blue Jackets being unlucky in the lottery isn’t just a feeling. It’s a fact."
            9 mai 2023 à 10 h 26
            #10
            Démarrer sujet
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            Quoting: python3504
            Lottery is rigged i have been calling this for months, they need to rebuild the CHI reputation and this is the way to do it, also they are one of the highest earning team so Bettman needs them back to the top asap. i feel bad for DET fans and ANH fans they were ripped off by Bettman.


            I highly doubt it is rigged but it sure seems that way sometimes. I wish that they would draw the numbers live so that there would be no discussion about the legitimacy of the lottery.
            9 mai 2023 à 10 h 38
            #11
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            Quoting: rednwhite
            I highly doubt it is rigged but it sure seems that way sometimes. I wish that they would draw the numbers live so that there would be no discussion about the legitimacy of the lottery.


            It just seems to be to perfect each time. and when the leafs won he seemed very surprised they won.
            9 mai 2023 à 10 h 50
            #12
            Banni
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            TK for Zadina, 2024 1st, 2023 2nd is what I have seen a lot and would do that
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            9 mai 2023 à 10 h 56
            #13
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            Quoting: Hockey_Mind
            CBJ fans don't want to hear it. No one has had worse lottery luck than us.

            I would have been fine with literally anyone but Chicago landing the top pick. That organization is scum.


            This is provably untrue. Detroit has fallen more spots in the lottery in the last decade than literally any other team, including falling out of first place. After last night, Columbus have moved up and down the same amount.

            I get being upset about the results of last night, but nah Columbus isn't even close to the most screwed by the draft lottery
            9 mai 2023 à 11 h 5
            #14
            Be formless
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            Quoting: AmeriCanadian
            This is provably untrue. Detroit has fallen more spots in the lottery in the last decade than literally any other team, including falling out of first place. After last night, Columbus have moved up and down the same amount.

            I get being upset about the results of last night, but nah Columbus isn't even close to the most screwed by the draft lottery


            No, you're wrong. It's actually been proven to be true with deeper numbers than the basic math that some amateur blogger can do. Maybe DET has dropped more spots than anyone else in the last 10 years, but over the course of their entire existence, Columbus has had the worst lottery luck of any team in the league. Go read the Athletic article, or just simply read my post above.

            Here's the bottom line:

            "There are four teams in the same realm with the most “expected” lottery wins: Edmonton (1.4), Columbus and Florida (1.38), and Buffalo (1.37). What stands out is that Edmonton has won four lotteries. Florida has won three. Buffalo has won two. Columbus has won zero.

            The Blue Jackets, Moser said, have been the NHL’s most unlucky club when it comes to the draft lottery with 1.38 fewer lottery wins than expected, or -1.38. The other clubs with a similar beef to the Blue Jackets are Arizona (-1.08), Los Angeles (-0.85), Ottawa (-0.75), and Carolina (-0.74).

            So, there it is. The Blue Jackets being unlucky in the lottery isn’t just a feeling. It’s a fact."
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            9 mai 2023 à 11 h 8
            #15
            Bedard23
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            Quoting: Hockey_Mind
            CBJ fans don't want to hear it. No one has had worse lottery luck than us.

            I would have been fine with literally anyone but Chicago landing the top pick. That organization is scum.


            Leo Carlsson is your consolation prize
            9 mai 2023 à 11 h 13
            #16
            A-toad-a-so
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            Quoting: AmeriCanadian
            …but nah Columbus isn't even close to the most screwed by the draft lottery


            😂 😂 🤣

            Since they’ve been in the league, statistically, they have been exactly the least lucky team in terms of winning the lottery.
            9 mai 2023 à 15 h 34
            #17
            Wing nut
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            Quoting: MoreHitzSeider
            Gary is still mad that Mister I wouldn't shake his hand after the 2009 SCF. Ilitch shook Mario's hand. Keep crying, Gary. Yzerman will still build a winner. To think all those years that Red Wings did Gary a favour by playing in the West while propping up the weak teams and flying in and out of time zones. Ungrateful prick.


            He is a sad little man. He needs to be replaced. Such an awful human being, and the worst thing is he doesn't even care about the sport. It's been obvious for 2 or 3 years now he has been rigging the drawing and it gets worse and more obvious each year! It's funny because Chicago is such a big hockey market. Wonder why, they were a dynasty, very recently. I feel it gets held against the wings for making the playoffs 20+ years in a row. Meanwhile teams like the devils, rangers, and now Chicago dont suffer at all and only watch bad product for a year or two. I feel like it should be our turn to return to greatness especially since we are a big market and have only lost some fare weather fans due to BS like this.
            9 mai 2023 à 15 h 39
            #18
            Wing nut
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            Quoting: Hockey_Mind
            You're basing that off of what some amateur bloggers have come up with. Try this:
            https://theathletic.com/4469516/2023/04/30/blue-jackets-draft-lottery-nhl/

            5 expert mathematicians broke down the odds and results over the last 23 years and no team has had more chances at the top pick without winning than CBJ.

            Here's a snippet in case you don't have a subscription:

            "For most of the Blue Jackets’ existence, the NHL lottery rules stated that a club could move up only four spots via the lottery. So any team that finished higher than the fifth-worst record couldn’t land the No. 1 pick. Six times between 2001-13, the Jackets fell into this category.

            But even in those seasons, the Blue Jackets still had a percentage chance to win the lottery and move higher in the lineup, and didn’t.

            When you take all of the non-playoff seasons into account, according to our experts, the Blue Jackets have had a 77.3 percent chance to win the lottery at least once in those 16 opportunities.

            In nine previous seasons, the Blue Jackets have finished low enough in the standings to have a chance at winning the first pick. Yes, they had a shot at Alex Ovechkin (2004), Sidney Crosby (2005), Auston Matthews (2016), etc.

            This season, at 13.5 percent, marks the fourth-best chance the Blue Jackets have had at landing the No. 1 pick through the years.

            In 2012, they had the best odds at 25.0 percent, but slid from No. 1 to No. 2. In 2002, the Jackets had an 18.8 percent chance to win the lottery, but slid from No. 2 to No. 3. In 2003, they had a 14.2 percent chance, but fell from No. 3 to No. 4.

            When you consider all of the seasons in which the Blue Jackets could have landed the No. 1 pick, according to our experts, the Blue Jackets have had a 69.6 percent chance of doing so at least once.

            If Anaheim wins this year’s lottery — they have the best chance at 25.5 percent — the Blue Jackets will long lament their 3-2 overtime win over the Penguins late this season, which moved them out of the pole position for the lottery.

            Still, they head into this year’s lottery with the same optimism as ever. If the ping pong balls bounce their way, they could win Bedard. And if they don’t?

            Well, according to our experts, another loss in the draft lottery this year would only make the Blue Jackets’ numbers (obviously) worse. They would have had a 73.7 percent chance likelihood of winning the No. 1 pick when you put this year’s chances into the mix.

            Moser, the data scientist from Buffalo, took all of this a step further. He ran simulations for all of the draft lotteries dating back to 2001 to determine which franchise across the entire NHL has had the most “expected” lottery wins based on their yearly finish in the standings.

            “This way,” Moser said, “we could tell just how ‘unlucky’ the Blue Jackets are compared to their peers.”

            There are four teams in the same realm with the most “expected” lottery wins: Edmonton (1.4), Columbus and Florida (1.38), and Buffalo (1.37). What stands out is that Edmonton has won four lotteries. Florida has won three. Buffalo has won two. Columbus has won zero.

            The Blue Jackets, Moser said, have been the NHL’s most unlucky club when it comes to the draft lottery with 1.38 fewer lottery wins than expected, or -1.38. The other clubs with a similar beef to the Blue Jackets are Arizona (-1.08), Los Angeles (-0.85), Ottawa (-0.75), and Carolina (-0.74).

            So, there it is. The Blue Jackets being unlucky in the lottery isn’t just a feeling. It’s a fact."


            Gary doesn't want top stars in Columbus or Arizona. That might grow the markets there and be good for business. Dumb*** executives like him don't know anything and just want to have control and help their rich buddies.
            9 mai 2023 à 15 h 44
            #19
            Wing nut
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            Quoting: python3504
            It just seems to be to perfect each time. and when the leafs won he seemed very surprised they won.


            It is rigged. The odds of only big city, big market teams winning it for years now. Once of which was the rangers who played in the bubble playoffs that year. Come on, he's not even trying to hide it. Gotta let at least one small market team to win it in there so it's not 100% suspicious.
            python3504 a aimé ceci.
             
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