Lack of nuance. Jfresh and Dom simply don’t know how to filter the stats properly. They only do it when it suits their narrative.
The fact Dom still thinks the Leafs should be favoured in every playoff series is such a giant tell.
The Passion.

Being a favorite and winning are 2 differents things.you can be a favorite and lose every year.

The Leafs should never be favourites besides reasons of profit for the books. The betting public pushes the Leafs in a direction with the largest fan base so the odds will always be pushed to even the money. Dom leads the charge in homerism. The Passion. They all get swept up to believe in the moment and hoping against reason. You can always manipulate polls, stats, accordingly. Thus the bias and lack of credibility.

you know u have bias and credibility issue too when you say '' the leaf should never be favorites '' right. Cant say they were the underdogs when playing colombus or mtl.

cmon i meant the playoffs. dont put words in my mouth lol

You've responded to statement I've made and no, I don't pay attention to who does or does not respond to me on this board. My world isn't that small.

Lack of nuance. Jfresh and Dom simply don’t know how to filter the stats properly. They only do it when it suits their narrative.
The fact Dom still thinks the Leafs should be favoured in every playoff series is such a giant tell.
The Passion.

the thing is most plays in the offensive zone dont end up in a goal statisticly. So its easy to say that you should avoid doing something because it wont resulst in a goal because most plays dont results in a goal. its as much of a good take as saying '' you should try having more breakaway '' or even with your examples i can say ''when you dump the puck it will never go in the net, therefore you should shoot the puck instead ''. I know thats not what you mean and it doesnt make much sense, I'm just trying to say stats.without context lile Jfresh is using are meaningless.

What nuance are you adding?

lol why you bumping this?
Ah without even bothering to read the whole thread..nuance is nuance..that is why the word is used. Filling your own narrative with cherry picked stats is the standard here. Dom should be categorized as a random poster no different than you and me. That is my point. I dont get paid to be unbiased as opposed to them and they fail over and over at their one job.

Someone told me Jfresh basically admitted his model was broken. I was dubious so I searched for it. Couldn't find anything but found this thread. Hoping it might point me to it I read through. You are pushing this idea of nuance but you aren't bringing any yourself. You have insanely strong opinions. Dom is terrible etc. He has a model that produces decent feedback. No models are perfect. You act like because he is making models even one mistake discredits his whole project. It's just about being better than the average person and I think he's safely beats mine or your opinions (which are clearly biased and we get a ton wrong).

The issue is that people treat it as definitive when it is anything but.
It provides an at-a-glance aggregation of partial statistics from already derived values.
That makes it not only incomplete but skewed.

Perhaps this is what you were looking for? https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1631673879738368000/photo/1
It's not an admission, but someone may have interpreted it that way. It basically says do not use it to define or predict a player's performance accurately.
All models vary in how well they interpret or predict data, so that doesn't mean it is necessarily broken.
Using his player cards to evaluate a player is like driving using only your rear view mirror. You have no idea what's on either side, what's in front of you, or even everything that is behind you.
The people that quote his player cards to further an argument are like that one guy at a party that's had one too many and insists he's still okay to drive.

If some people use the models as gospel that has no bearing on the models themselves. That just means someone doesn't know how to use them.

You're analogies of what the models are are totally butchered. None of that even makes sense.

What they do is deepen our understanding more broadly. You might know a player on your own team really well but how to do you compare his impact to another player in the league? Especially when you can't watch every team every night. The model can reliably be more accurate about a player than any of us individual fans of our home teams. They're far more accurate than an eye test or an opinion reliably.

You say they are biased but they are literally just data points. If you change the models inputs to fit your needs then sure that would be biased but the models don't get changed on a whim. Therefore they have basically no bias. Ironically individual opinion is rife with bias.

You say you hate it when someone quotes a player card when making an argument, how do you respond then? "Trust me bro I watch him every night"?

Thanks for the link. The fact that the highlighted part had to be highlighted I think speaks to people like andy_dick. He seems to think that if the models get anything at all wrong they are useless. Which is the least nuanced take possible. But ya the guy who said that about JFresh was biased clearly, and misinterpreted what was said most likely just to further his own agenda, as we all are guilty of to varying degrees. Another reason why the models help so much.

If some people use the models as gospel that has no bearing on the models themselves. That just means someone doesn't know how to use them.

You're analogies of what the models are are totally butchered. None of that even makes sense.

What they do is deepen our understanding more broadly. You might know a player on your own team really well but how to do you compare his impact to another player in the league? Especially when you can't watch every team every night. The model can reliably be more accurate about a player than any of us individual fans of our home teams. They're far more accurate than an eye test or an opinion reliably.

You say they are biased but they are literally just data points. If you change the models inputs to fit your needs then sure that would be biased but the models don't get changed on a whim. Therefore they have basically no bias. Ironically individual opinion is rife with bias.

You say you hate it when someone quotes a player card when making an argument, how do you respond then? "Trust me bro I watch him every night"?

Thanks for the link. The fact that the highlighted part had to be highlighted I think speaks to people like andy_dick. He seems to think that if the models get anything at all wrong they are useless. Which is the least nuanced take possible. But ya the guy who said that about JFresh was biased clearly, and misinterpreted what was said most likely just to further his own agenda, as we all are guilty of to varying degrees. Another reason why the models help so much.

But that's not what's being said. andy_dick isn't saying the models are all wrong and useless, etc. And he can correct me if I'm wrong, not trying to speak for him, but he's saying that the Models can be as biased as the individuals who made them. E.g. He brought up Dom's model always showing the Leafs as favorites in playoff matchups.
I'm also a pro-analytics guy, but how raw data can be presented to the public is really at the mercy of the person showing it. And models compile raw data to "try" to give a more "user friendly" picture. The person creating the model can add weight to certain metrics to fit whatever narrative they like. Hence the bias. The more technical term for this is "P-Hacking".

In retrospect, that would have been more than fair for PLD.

If your idea is that they make the models so that the leafs look good that is just preposterous. They have been a top team for yrs. They lost to the cup champs in 7 games and then beat them the next yr. What is the evidence that they shouldn't have been favorites?

If you believe a model is misleading then it's incumbent upon you to say why. And then we can update the models or make a better one if thats the case. They are a good starting point of reference no doubt though. And most of the time theyre accurate. Like orders of magnitude more accurate than someones opinion.

For the first bolded statement, I never said that… You really like putting words in peoples mouths, huh?

For the second bolded statement, “we”? Maybe that’s why you’re so defensive on people criticizing models lol is this JFresh? Dom?

Again, all I and others are bringing forward is that models can be as biased as those who make them. My evidence is that p-hacking exists…. Anything else you want to claim I say, is of your own doing.

There's some statician out there that blindly follows NHLe (essentially point-scoring adjusted at to an NHL level). He's worse than both of those guys. Said a Red Wings prospect, Marco Kasper, needs probably two years in the AHL.

Marco Kasper is a two-way player. He wasn't drafted for his point production. He was regarded as one of the most NHL ready prospects in the 2022 draft.

Less than a week player he played his first game and the Wings won 5-2 against the Leafs, he was the 2nd line center. He also played with a broken kneecap for most of the game.

The Leafs should never be favourites besides reasons of profit for the books. The betting public pushes the Leafs in a direction with the largest fan base so the odds will always be pushed to even the money. Dom leads the charge in homerism. The Passion. They all get swept up to believe in the moment and hoping against reason. You can always manipulate polls, stats, accordingly. Thus the bias and lack of credibility.

How close is Kasper to playing his second AHL season?

Whenever the season ends? Whenever next season starts? Depends on when you define the start of an AHL season.

Point is; Kasper is pretty close to playing in 2 AHL seasons

bros really pulling out call backs from a year ago 😭