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BigShoots

Big Shoots
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17 sept. 2020
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Canucks de Vancouver
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Forum: Armchair-GM15 mars à 14 h 17
Sujet: Rentals
Forum: Armchair-GM10 mars à 12 h 53
Forum: Armchair-GM9 mars à 18 h 6
Forum: Armchair-GM8 mars à 17 h 2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LuckyMoneyPuck</b></div><div>again you think the penguins not getting a late 1st and a ceiling 3rd line prospect with a 50% chance is some big loss. It's not.
You have more to lose than the penguins.

I also have no problem with them resigning Jake. They will be rebuilding soon, so no big deal on the end of that contact. They will need cap floor anyway.

I'm not going to speculate on what the CAR could or would be, no one knows. Just talking heads.
All I know is it hurts teams who have a closing window well more than it hurts the penguins. Nothing people like you want to give up is going to help the penguins win. But you lose out on a major piece trying to get a cup.
I could care less if your windows close. So you better make it worth it for me to make a move.</div></div>

So there you have it. Guentzel didn't return any of Carolina's top 5 prospects. Pitt even took back long term money and they still couldn't even pry a top prospect from Carolina (and they have quite a few)

They did end up getting more pieces than I expected but you just don't see top prospects moved in these type of deals. It's always the standard 1st, prospect, roster player (cap dump/reclamation project) thing for any good player and goes a little up or down from there depending on the player.

This is also a lesson for you about a high price. You thought it was up to everyone else to meet it or else. In reality teams clearly moved on to other targets and Pitt was left holding the bag to some degree. I don't think this is an awful deal by any means for PItt but it's probably a C. Depends on what you think of Bunting and how he might fit in.
Forum: Armchair-GM7 mars à 23 h 38
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LuckyMoneyPuck</b></div><div>again you think the penguins not getting a late 1st and a ceiling 3rd line prospect with a 50% chance is some big loss. It's not.
You have more to lose than the penguins.

I also have no problem with them resigning Jake. They will be rebuilding soon, so no big deal on the end of that contact. They will need cap floor anyway.

I'm not going to speculate on what the CAR could or would be, no one knows. Just talking heads.
All I know is it hurts teams who have a closing window well more than it hurts the penguins. Nothing people like you want to give up is going to help the penguins win. But you lose out on a major piece trying to get a cup.
I could care less if your windows close. So you better make it worth it for me to make a move.</div></div>

If you're talking about this offer it's literally two 1sts, a 2nd, and two NHL ready young players. So ya that will not be happening.

In what world do you shop a guy, only to ask too much and not get what you want and then resign him. That is called fantasy.

Please speculate, why not? Are you scared that you'll look foolish? I have made my case as to what the value will likely be and laid it out there. You seem to think I have no clue so share what you think the return is going to be so we see who was closer.

And no it doesn't hurt a team overly to miss out on a rental. Your logic would just then suggest you should rent every player available at the cost of all future assets. You have to weigh the value of the asset the value of the rental.

It's called trade value. If I don't value him at a certain price and someone else does so be it. I still have my blue chip prospect and 6 mil in cap space. It's seems there are about 3-4 moving factors you aren't including in your valuation. Another one is how many rentals come in a win their team a Stanley Cup? I'm sure it happens but it's not a high hit rate.

Should the Sabres just trade you say Owen Power to get Guentzel in? Guentzel is the better player currently.

Anyway if you have any integrity at all put together what you think the return is going to be from Carolina. This is such a unique and fun situation where we know a trade is gonna happen between two teams, whilst we are speculating on the value of the player, and we have a chance to guess what we think the return will be. Love to hear your take.
Forum: Armchair-GM7 mars à 19 h 53
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LuckyMoneyPuck</b></div><div>Your comments are really funny considering what all VAN fans on here were asking for when they were talking about Miller last year. You are making a real 1 sided request. Some real standard capfriendly stuff.

You are not the only team interested in Guentzel and at some point you need to get that through, and realize that what you want to offer vs what others are going to offer is going to push the price.

Now you might not be comfortable with that price, and that's fine. A. your not the decision maker, and B. VAN can waste the last few good years they of a guy like Miller waiting on prospect hope and dreams, that doesn't bother me.

Believe me had this same convo on other threads. No matter what you think the prospect is, it's just hope and dreams till they actually do something. Go look at 2OA Kakko who was suppose to be a top line winger, 30 goal scorer. He's Yakupov 2.0 now. That story is true more than it's not. It's hard to be a Jake Guentzel in the NHL. I don't care what you did in some swiss league or juniors. To actually be something is way more valuable than to one day maybe.

So you can keep saying that but you can look at a team like the NYR. Their core is 32. Panarin and Kreider their two best goal scorers. They aren't getting any younger.
When they go, their window to do anything is closed. They will be a bottom feeder team again. Even with the league helping them out with a 1OA and 2OA for being a big market team.

Because of that the pressure isn't on PIT to move Jake it's on other teams to get him to win a cup. JR understood that in PIT, with an Crosby, Malkin and Letang in their upper 20s and early 30s.
So you can keep comparing the value of Guentzel and saying how some hope and dream prospect who has done all of 0 so far. Is worth more than Jake. But that simply isn't true. The reality is, you still have to develop a swiss player to play on NHL ice. In that time a guy like Miller is going to age and your window is going to close. The pressue is on VAN to make something happen not PIT. PIT already did that part. They could hold Jake and it's no big deal. Not that they will because other teams will realize now or never. As they don't have 2 years to develop guys and get them use to playing on the NHL level.
I'm sure you have had enough bad so called wunderkind prospects come to vancouver to understand that. There is a list of prospects a mile long who were suppose to be the next great thing, oh look what they did in juniors. Clearly the next Gretzky. Good luck with it.
Just remember though Guentzel going to Vegas ain't helping your chances to win while you can. Other teams get the point that you go for it while the chance is there because it might not be in the future.</div></div>

You remember Miller didn't get traded right? Because the like of NYR weren't willing to give up Schneider. That's Braden Schneider.

I am aware other teams are in on him. The price you think it is doesn't bother me. I go of the precedent of previous trades. The problem with the price being so high is if no one meets your ask you end up having to keep Guentzel and he likely walks so there is far more risk on the Pitt side than there is losing out in the Guentzel sweepstakes.

You might not be comfortable with the ultimate return A thats fine B Guentzel could be lost for nothing if you don't take something. As for the Canucks it's precisely ELCs such as Lekerimaki that are how you overcome a potentially poor back side of a contract such as Miller's.

Top prospect hit more often than not but I take the point you are trying to make which is that it's not a sure thing. He could also be better than Guentzel in a couple yrs too. The most predictable part about this though is that 30 yr players tend to decline. Some faster than others. Do you want to pay your team's top prospect for the chance to use Guentzel for a few months? I don't not if the prospect is as good as Lekerimaki has been. He's already playing against men's in the probably the 3-4 best league in the world. I get he's a prospect but he's a dam good one. I can tell you the fans of each team are gonna know their prospects better than other team's fair? If I'd have wanted Guentzel a yr before he made the NHL and offered you 34 yr old Ryan Kesler and said oh Kesler is a Selke guy and Guentzel will likely never make it would you have done it?

If you want to say Guentzel will resign that also isn't that good. 30+ yr old winger taking up 8 mil on the cap for 8 yrs isn't ideal.

You keep going off about prospects not making, again most top prospects do. And Guentzel's best yrs are behind him in all likelihood. And then I'll reiterate the cap situation of signing an ageing winger vs having and up and coming player on an ELC.

Lastly sounds like a deal with the Hurricane might happen. Bunting out of the lineup for Carolina. Care to guess what the return is ? Ill go first

Guentzel for 1st, Morrow, Bunting (maybe with some late picks flying around too)

What do you think it'll be?
Forum: Armchair-GM7 mars à 17 h 20
Forum: Armchair-GM6 mars à 0 h 55
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LuckyMoneyPuck</b></div><div>the "he's a rental part" doesn't mean anything.
You have no idea if they allowed them to work out a deal before the trade. You are just assuming.
I'm sure PIT knows exactly what Jake wants and can forward that info to who ever is interested.

Fact is it's the "prospect" part you refuse to recognize your own lacking. You don't want to part with a legit prospect.
That's the hold up on your end.
Don't think JR thinks the same way. He will rifle a prospect out.
The 1st is relative. A guy like Lysell is worth no more than the 1st. Simply swapping them is no big deal.
You aren't talking some top 5 pick here. It's like BOS building up Donato or telling everyone Studnicka was going to be the Bergeron replacement.
He's just a mediocre prospect at this point, no different then the 1st he'd be replacing.

Fact is you short the trade unwilling to part with assets. You think, oh I'll dump whatever dud prospect and the other team has to accept it's "a prospect"
But that just isn't how it works.

Bains and Raty just aren't the level of prospect going to get this done. Neither is Pod.

It's not about "5 assets"
It's about getting quality for a quality forward they are sending out.
And a 40 goal guy who puts up that pace regularly is going to get that quality no matter what you think.
You don't get something for nothing. You got to pay to get what you want, like everyone else.
When PIT traded for Kessel it cost their 1st, their best prospect in Kapanan who was well received at that point, and other stuff.
It's no different for you or VAN. And you are getting a better player back, who has none of the drama that surrounded Kessel.
If JR would pay it then, yet you think he won't pay it now? Or that you are too cheap to pay it, well you got another thing coming if you want that chance to win a cup.</div></div>

In all reality whether it's a rental or a long term deal negotiated the return is the same. Rental carries the risk of him leaving, long term contract carriers the late yrs risk. See Horvat and many others as examples.

Lysell is a legit prospect. A 1st is a legit prospect. Raty is a legit prospect. The others are trending to be solid bottom 6 players.

To be fair the proposal is horrible value trading Lindholm away. Should be Lysell and 1st at least. Probably a bit more.

If you think you're getting Willander or Lekkerimaki that's unrealistic. If you think you are getting 5 assets and no cap thats unrealistic.

We are giving up Lindholm in this deal too hahah he just cost a 1st ++

Anyway Guentzel will get a 1st, prospect, and one more thing that has negligible value. That's just what it costs for rentals or 30 yrs old sign long term wingers. no matter that hes a great player.
Forum: Armchair-GM5 mars à 20 h 37