I never stated I were the one to prove you wrong lol, I have numerous times refered to the evidence @Db1899 has showed you, is there impossible for you to comprehend how one person can co-argue in a debate where two people share the exact view and opinion based on ”evidence”?

I am discussing the main piece of the trade in Nelson lol, you make it sound like it has nothing to do with the trade - the value of him is the exact thing we are discussing because a players value correlates with how good a player is.

which list are you pulling for "top 50 centers" on NHL.com cuz the only list I see is for fantasy hockey

Oops! My bad I'll retract that statement!

The problem is he doesnt pair well with anyone besides Toews and Makar, and both of those guys are better when paired together or with someone else

He was only paired with Jack Johnson for 23.5% of his 5v5 ice time last season. JJ isnt a great partner to have but its not like he wasnt given chances with anyone else, he just didnt perform well enough with the other top 4D to justify keeping them together. With EJ's injury maybe they take this as an opportunity to find a RD to play with Girard that fits better stylistically and maybe he can regain his old form (although you could argue thats what they tried to do with Manson last year, but they didnt pair well either)

Im not looking forward to seeing Manson's deal age either tbh, but at the time im not sure what the alternative would have been - there were no good value top 4 RD options in free agency. Maybe they wouldve signed Kadri and left a hole on D instead of at 2C?

Jeez Louise! No, you just want to argue about Nelson and ignore every. single. other. point. I've given you ample opportunity to address any or all of them so now I have to consider you're just an argumentative troll. You think Nelson is a 1C as do others and that's fine. We get it. Some of us do not. Regardless of that and let's just for the sake of hypothesising say I agree with you that he can be seen as a 1C......I still wouldn't do the trade from the Avs PoV because of the reasons you and your buddy have ignored blatantly and repeatedly for the sake of arguing over and over about Nelson. I've never said how one perceives Nelson isn't relevant. However, regardless of perceiving him as a 1 or 2C, imo he's not the piece the Avs should be looking for and Girard isn't a piece the Avs should be moving at this time. So there you go. You will no doubt continue to ignore any other part of the reasoning that can be discussed and I can't be wasting any more time and energy on you so I'll leave you to rant some more about Brock bloody Nelson!

It's funny you should say that about G & Manson not being good together and not pairing well with anyone but I was looking at an article a few minutes ago that mentioned how much better he was with Manson in the play offs (until the injury so yes it's a small sample size), and why the Avs shouldn't trade Girard.

'After Girard’s regular-season struggles, he went into the playoffs healthy and with a vital partner in Josh Manson, and the pairing was excellent. Even though Girard only played in 7 of the Avalanche’s 20 postseason games, he was Manson’s most common partner playing 81:31 together, just ahead of Jack Johnson at 81:01 together, but the results were significantly different. Girard – Manson controlled 51.0% of the expected goals, while Johnson – Manson controlled 43.2%, and while comparing Girard to Johnson doesn’t provide all that compelling of an argument, look at Manson’s time on ice (TOI).

In games Girard played, Manson’s average TOI was 19:14, with 17:26 at even strength, which is 30.9% of the team’s ice time, and 33.3% of the team’s even-strength ice time. But after Girard’s injury, his TOI fell to 16:05, with 14:09 at even strength, and over a three-minute drop in ice time, leading to him playing 4.8% less of the team’s ice, 5.3% less of the team even-strength time. After Girard’s injury, Manson went from a clear 2nd pairing role to a 4th/5th defenceman role, splitting the part with Erik Johnson, which shows the team values Girard, as without him, while Manson was still strong, he was not as valuable. The Avalanche value Girard, understand that his regular season was just a down year, and they should not sell low.' - Inside the Rink.

I will hold my hands up and say I have no idea how they've been together (statistically) this year, or how much, but this year is going to be an awful one to gauge statistically with all the injuries.

Pardon my bad rounding here, using my work computer lol.

So looking at his 5v5 ice time last year with defenseman >100 mins, about 25% is with Jack, 21% with Erik, 20% with Makar, 13% with Toews, 12% with Byram, and 10% with Manson.

Girard didn’t really have a consistent partner last year. At this stage in their careers, JJ and EJ are not true top 4 options. EJ can sometimes play up in the lineup but he’s better suited in a bottom pair setting. Jack Johnson is awful and somehow looked palatable last year.

I would need to do a bit more research, but his pairings with Makar are likely when Makar is getting double shifted in late games with a deficit. I would imagine most of the ice time with Toews was during Makar’s injury.

As for Byram and Manson, I’d like to see a little bit more ice time for those pairings and see what we have here.

We’ve seen Girard play elite top pairing minutes early in his career next to Erik Johnson and before Makar/Toews. EJ is obviously not the same guy he was back then, but I really struggle to believe that Girard has declined significantly from who he was as a 18/19 year old. I think more likely, it’s a matter of pairing him with the right fit.

One of my hotter Avs takes is that the Avs should run a top 4 of Byram-Makar and Toews-Girard. I think that would allow you to get the best out of both Byram and Girard. You could always reunite Toews/Makar during high leverage situations.

I think that article is kinda cherry picking tbh. I mean when you use Jack Johnson as a comparable its hard not to look good. Girard-Manson's 51% xGF% looks good in a vacuum, but in context of the rest of the team/D-core's numbers its pretty bad:

5v5 xGF% in 21-22 playoffs:

Byram 64.8%
Makar 59.7%
E Johnson 57.7%
Manson 56.8%
Toews 55.2%
J Johnson 54.3%
Girard 50.49%

Aside from Girard, every single D man on the team had a significantly better xGF% than the Girard-Manson pairing (including Manson when you combine all of his other pairings in that playoff run after Girard went down)

Not sure how much value you can put in that when Girard got injured so early. Byram though… that’s insane

I have code which automatically calculates TOI% using moneypuck's line data which is a bit more accurate



23.5% with JJ
19.1% with EJ
18.3% with Makar
12% with Toews
11.1% with Byram
8.9% with Manson
5.3% with Murray
1.8% with MacDermid


Definitely a lot of line switching but theres still 100+ minute sample sizes with him paired with good D men where the numbers look bad (edit: I shouldnt say bad, but just not as good as when the other guys play without Girard). Plently of D men have multiple partners over the course of the season, even in 20-21 during Girard's peak season he had lots of line switching too (Toews 30.8%, MacDonald 17.5%, Graves 17.2%, Makar 15.1%, Byram 9.6%, Timmins 6.3%, Nemeth 1.8%, Renouf 1.7%). I dont think that excuses his poor numbers the past 2 seasons

I like the Byram-Makar and Toews-Girard pairs too. We will probably see some D line juggling anyway with EJ injured - and they should probably add a D at the deadline for the 3rd pair too

YES I only want to argue about Nelson because I don’t and didn’t want to discuss anything else beside your opiniated view of Nelson being an 2C, what is so hard to understand?

For the millionth time, I do not care whether you would do the trade or not, it’s irrelevant to me, please try to understand, my only problem I had was you and Turtlemountain ignoring the facts or evidence as you called it (provided by Db1899) in the debate about Nelson being a 1C vs 2C.

Even in the regular season Girard-Manson was at 43.4% xGF% in 108.5 minutes. Girard and Manson are both at the bottom or near the bottom in xGF% in each of the past 2 seasons plus the 21-22 postseason. Its not just a 7 game outlier

They have been better as a pairing this season with 57.5% xGF% but in a 71 minute sample size which is less than the samples from last season's reg + playoffs

But yeah Byram was an absolute beast in that run

Beautiful, thanks for sending. I’d argue that Girard’s peak was right at the start of his Avs tenure when he was playing next to EJ. I don’t think I’m trying to excuse his numbers, more just contextualize. He’s definitely the 4th best defenseman at best on the Avs (a byproduct of Makar/Toews/Byram all being awesome). I think it’d be a smart coaching move to deploy Girard with a higher end partner and spread the top 4 load. But I also don’t have a Stanley cup, so what do I know lol

59 pts is still 59pts. For a 1C imo point generation is first because all I care that my top line center does is drive plays that produce points with goal scoring a very close second. I’m not knocking Nelson, I think Kadri is better than him but I don’t think Naz is a 1C either. Put it a different way, you’re in a playoff series playing against the NYI are you so concerned about Nelson as a 1C that you are game planning how to get your top d pairing out against him and the forward line you want or are you rolling the lines you feel comfortable with regardless? I know there is a lot of interpretation there about teammates and what not, I just don’t think he is a 1C. Would I like him on the Avs hell yeah. BTW, really enjoy debating this with you and you do make some very valid points and I appreciate you sharing your point of view.

100% agree with Byram Makar and Toews Girard combos. My observations about Girard is that he thrives more so than probably any other dman on the team when there is tempo to the game and he plays with guys that can help create tempo, and struggles when paired with more rugged stay at home guys. He’s a top 4 dman, however he isn’t the kind of top 4 dman like Makar Byram and Toews who you can play next to MacDermid and make him look like a real solid NHL dman.