Meier is good but Toronto isn't going to give up their top F prospect, top D prospect, and first round pick for him

Sure they would. Its what it would take.

The trade would certainly make the Leafs better this year. But Meier's cap next season really doesn't work for the Leafs without probably Nylander next summer, so how are the Leafs better off?
Leafs are hoping Niemela is a Leafs in 2024/25 and Knies this season or next. Having two NHLer on cheap ELC is important for the cap strapped Leafs. IMO Meier isn't a fit for the Leafs.
Teams with more cap and available prospects and picks to satisfy the Sharks seems to be best deal for everyone.

If that's the cost, they would pass on him.

While that may be a justified price.. it’s also the same reason TOR isn’t in on him. Those are the only 3 pieces in their cupboard

Maybe. What do we know?

We know that Dubas has said he won't trade Knies or a first for a rental, so trading both plus the top defensive prospect in the organization for a player they likely can't keep is obviously not something they would do

Well you said it yourself, for a rental. Meier isn't a rental.

Sometimes or most deadlines GM's don't care - Dubas has to win now or he's gone. Dubas wont be sticking around if they dont win in the next 2 years then comes change. Might not make sense but his job could be on the line and if this makes them win then they wont care about giving this up

I still don't think he would do this just because when the retrade Meier they are bound to get less and the prospect they get might not be a PWF winger or a RHD.

But like you said, what do we know. Maybe if it's Meier+ another piece, Dubas might do it.

If they can make the cap work they would do the trade - Need it for one year becase woudnt Tavares take a cut in 2 years?

Dubas having some playoff success and getting a new contract is also at play here. I think the value is fair given the Devils and Canes are likely to put up similar or better offers with the intent of re-signing him.

Draft picks and prospects are lottery tickets. I certainly agree with your logic and thought process, but I wouldn't rule out Dubas trying to swing for the fences

I don't think Dubas makes a panic move just to save his job, however, trading for Meier makes sense in a lot of ways, over trading for a true rental. There are other players with term that will be available so he's going to compare everything. Dubas won't just jeapordize the future of the team in an attempt to try to save his job because 1) it might not work and 2) it's more important that he puts himself in a position where he can land another management job rather than trying to hold onto his current position with the Leafs.

I do think he would rather keep Knies this year though, since they will need his ELC for next year and the one after, and the fact that keeping Meier would be a challenge and they want that type of player.

Agreed, but TOR is in on him, but they probably won't be the frontrunners and likely won't land him. That being said I think whichever team is willing to give up their top pieces will land him, not every team, even those that can sign him easily will be doing that. Maybe Dubas will be who knows.

Toronto isn't likely to be able to extend him. They would have to flip him after the season ends. But the point was to highlight how he values those pieces, so giving up that much for a guy you have to go back and flip for questionable value is not likely at all. Toronto has other deadline options for less

Fair enough - If they have other options might be better for them who knows at this point - No one guarantees a cup LA won as an 8th seed before

This ****s so ridiculous man, Dubas' job isn't based on cup or bust expectations. Toronto media goes crazy, but MLSE isn't about to move on from the guy that's assembled multiple franchise record breaking teams because of bad breaks in the playoffs. He certainly isn't going to keep his job by overpaying for de-facto rentals

This is exactly what the big risk/reward scenario is...

Meier, IMO, is the acquisition that would have the single, biggest impact on our roster (unless NSH is open to trading us Ekholm).

The package here is likely in the ballpark of what it would take to get him. I imagine Carolina and NJ would offer more robust packages as they'd have plans to re-sign him.

The leafs are likely not in a position to be able to afford to re-sign him

So do you pay the same kind of rate that a NJ or Carolina would to bring in the best piece for this playoff run? Or do you go to whatever a plan B might be and hope it's enough.

THere's very few examples of a big time deadline rental that actually helps a team win a cup so I'm personally leaning towards plan B

I wouldn't go so far as to say it's Cup or Bust. But if they leafs don't get out of the first round I can definitely see them not renewing Kyle's contract.

The better question is whether Shanny would even let him make a trade like this

Yeah, no way Shanny lets him. I really don't see Dubas going anywhere even if they don't win a round again. At the end of the day, MLSE doesn't care about media meltdown or twitter trends. They lost two years in a row in 7 games to teams that swept their next opponents and went to the cup finals. They're rational, they know the team he has built is good, and they've been met with bad luck. They're also still selling out the rink with ridiculous ticket prices. No reason to rock the boat

JFJ was selling out the rink, too.

Like you, I try and take solace in the fact that the leafs have battled tough opponents in the 1st round and come within a puck bounce of winning. I don't hate on the situation like most. But I think he was a bit lucky to be given the reigns again this year. If Shanny was going to bring him back next year, regardless of how the playoffs go this year, he'd have an extension already....that's my thoughts, anyway.

He had the reigns regardless this year, still under contract. This is a team that has been breaking franchise records every season. Something like 4 of their best 5 regular seasons ever have come under Dubas/Keefe (don't quote me on that but ik it's close). I think they're waiting on a contract for optics reasons, but I have no doubts given how buddied up Shanny and Dubas are that they keep the gang together. If we're being rational it's only a matter of time before they catch a break

Hopefully they win and we don't have to find out either way.

They have called to ask the price but they haven’t offered anything substantial. When you make a real offer then you’re “in”

I don't think anyone has yet, NJ and CAR are both interested in knowing how much he would resign for, Vegas and Toronto are both probably looking at all options.