Holtz+the 2023 1st should probably be most of the value, not sure how valuable casey is but looks reasonable.


They should trade Wood with 1.45m retention for Puljujarvi too.

overpayment even as a new Armchair GM post

My argument would be that Holtz and Casey don't have a clear path to NJD's lineup for a while. Casey especially as a RD. So NJ is trading their logjam prospects. They have a plethora of prospects and can afford it. Also Grier's rumored asks are really high so maybe he doesn't even do holtz+casey, but we'll see

Probably just doing Holtz+Casey (might as well use prospects)+ 2023 2nd (upgrades to a 1st if NJ makes it to the semi/conference finals)+ a goalie prospect as a sweetener for retention would make sense.

It’s not an overpayment! A trade with an extension makes it completely worth it. We’re not in the business of prospect hoarding!! We wanna keep Hughes, Nemec, and Mercer. This accomplishes the mission.

Not hoarding, using to make the team better by pkging.
Grier: "I want x and y and z"
You: We'll give you a and b and c as well"
Yeah sure a small piece to put us over, no problem. Your giving good pcs away

We didn’t trade Niedermayer, Elias, Gomez or Brylin. We lost Shanahan to an offer-sheet (but comp was worthwhile). And we traded Rolston to Colorado, who then flipped him to Boston for Ray Bourque, who beat us in 2001 finals. None of the other guys were traded as prospects. And by the time they were moved, most had contract/signability concerns.

Most of the other trades with prospects were older guys. Corey Millen, Brendan Morrison, Jason Smith, Steve Sullivan, Sheldon Souray…were all 23-25 by the time we moved them.

I don’t understand how you think this deal gets done then. We’re going to get outbid, it’s plain and simple. Carolina will put together a better package than 1st/Holtz/Foote. Nolan Foote is an at best fringe 4th liner, cmon man don’t try to oversell him.

You’re missing the point I’m making completely. Some guys we drafted and kept, some we didn’t. That was my point.

We used guys we drafted high in trades, that’s what I’m getting at. This is a strategy that has been successfully utilized previously

And the problem is that Grier is asking for three elite pieces (ie, Hughes, Mercer, Nemec, Holtz).

Unless something changes, I don’t think Meier gets moved at all.

Stop putting this narrative out there man! It’s BS!!

Yes, but we did not sell them as 19-20 year olds. We sold them once they became too expensive, often in their mid-20s.

I am all for moving some of our prospects for another forward. But move Bahl, Foote, Thompson, Walsh, picks etc, to fill in holes. The Meier thing just smells bad.

I am not putting out a narrative. Chris Johnston, Sheng Peng, TSN…the asking price has been put out in a number of places. And it’s basically Luke Hughes + 1st or two of Mercer, Holtz, Nemec + 1st.

If you have seen anything more recent, inform me.

We didn’t sit on our hands twenty five years ago and we shouldn’t now. Shanahan turned into Stevens. Rolston turned into Lemuix. Guerin turned into Arnott. Arnott turned into Langenbrunner. Sykora turned into Friesen. We were aggressive and we won because of how aggressive we were. Put the foot on the gas and let’s go win three more ******* cups!!

Go here, find similar pcs we have, then let's talk:
https://twitter.com/MrWhite1079/status/1625917227697405952?t=2p7ervPNsRRB1pO7Z0EkJw&s=19

So you’re of the opinion that a 1st/2nd/Morrow/Drury is NOT better than 1st/Holtz/Foote?!? Because I hate to tell you my friend, that would be a better offer.

This is the article you are referring to: https://sanjosehockeynow.com/san-jose-sharks-meier-nemec-mercer-holtz-new-jersey-devils-trade/

Since I assume you don't have a subscription to SJHN, I'll post it here:

So the New Jersey Devils want “a final shot” at a Timo Meier trade?

That’s what Elliotte Friedman indicated yesterday on his 32 Thoughts Podcast.

What might that final shot look like? Here’s how some NHL sources see the New Jersey farm system.

Friedman dropped an interesting note on his podcast about what the San Jose Sharks could expect from the Devils in a Meier trade.

He noted there’s a lot of interest in New Jersey’s defensive prospects. It’s worth adding that Friedman didn’t necessarily say this in connection to Meier.

“I don’t think Nemec is going anywhere,” Friedman said of the Devils’ 2022 second-overall pick. “I can’t imagine that.”

He mentioned 2020 first-rounder Shakir Mukhamadullin, 2019 second-rounder Nikita Okhotyk, and 2017 third-rounder Reilly Walsh as being of some interest league-wide.

Conspicuously absent from Friedman’s musings was 2021 fourth-overall selection Luke Hughes, who’s more highly-regarded than even Simon Nemec. Safe to say, and I can confirm this from my own sources, Hughes is untouchable.

For the San Jose Sharks, who I’ve been told are looking for perhaps up to three pieces in a Meier trade – a first-round pick and two Grade-B prospects, a first-round pick and a Grade-A prospect, or a first-round pick and a Grade-B prospect and a young NHL player – I think only Nemec or Mukhamadullin would move the needle?

So the New Jersey Devils want “a final shot” at a Timo Meier trade?

That’s what Elliotte Friedman indicated yesterday on his 32 Thoughts Podcast.

What might that final shot look like? Here’s how some NHL sources see the New Jersey farm system.

Friedman dropped an interesting note on his podcast about what the San Jose Sharks could expect from the Devils in a Meier trade.

He noted there’s a lot of interest in New Jersey’s defensive prospects. It’s worth adding that Friedman didn’t necessarily say this in connection to Meier.

“I don’t think Nemec is going anywhere,” Friedman said of the Devils’ 2022 second-overall pick. “I can’t imagine that.”

He mentioned 2020 first-rounder Shakir Mukhamadullin, 2019 second-rounder Nikita Okhotyk, and 2017 third-rounder Reilly Walsh as being of some interest league-wide.

Conspicuously absent from Friedman’s musings was 2021 fourth-overall selection Luke Hughes, who’s more highly-regarded than even Simon Nemec. Safe to say, and I can confirm this from my own sources, Hughes is untouchable.

For the San Jose Sharks, who I’ve been told are looking for perhaps up to three pieces in a Meier trade – a first-round pick and two Grade-B prospects, a first-round pick and a Grade-A prospect, or a first-round pick and a Grade-B prospect and a young NHL player – I think only Nemec or Mukhamadullin would move the needle?

An NHL executive suggested to San Jose Hockey Now yesterday that the Bo Horvat trade is the low bar of what the Sharks are looking for – assuming pending RFA Meier is willing to extend. That’s a 1st, a Grade-B prospect (Aatu Raty), and a young, established NHL player (Anthony Beauvillier).

It doesn’t mean that Walsh or Okhotyk couldn’t be in a Meier trade, but they wouldn’t be significant pieces.

Sources suggest to me that Nemec is to be considered a Grade A-B tweener of a prospect, while Mukhamadullin is a Grade-B.

Now these are not hard-and-fast grades. One NHL scout or organization may see Nemec as a sure-fire Grade-A and another may see him as a A-B tweener.

But it gives you a sense of actual value today, as opposed to when the prospect was drafted.

Just for example, expanding the conversation to New Jersey prospects up front, 2020 seventh-overall pick Alexander Holtz was likely a Grade-A when selected, but now, he’s probably considered a Grade-B. 2020 18th-overall pick Dawson Mercer, who obviously has already graduated to the NHL, was probably a Grade-B prospect on draft day, but has developed into a likely Grade-A asset.

Defensemen Seamus Casey and Kevin Bahl, forwards Arseni Gritsyuk and Nolan Foote, and goalie Akira Schmid are among New Jersey’s other top prospects, though they probably trail Mercer, Hughes, Nemec, Holtz, and Mukhamadullin in terms of league-wide perception.

Of the secondary group, 2022 second-rounder Casey might be the most intriguing.

“He’s a B-C tweener,” a scout from outside the San Jose Sharks organization told SJHN. “Havelid is better.”

In a comparison of the smallish, puck-moving rearguards, the San Jose Sharks selected Havelid 45th-overall last year, right ahead of No. 46 Casey.

Assuming the Devils can extend Meier – and assuming there’s another team that also sees him as a long-term franchise cornerstone, thus inciting a bidding war – could the Devils offer Nemec and a 1st? Mercer and a 1st? Or Holtz, Mukhamadullin, and a 1st?

“It’s probably the third one,” the scout guessed, in terms of likelihood, when presented with these core packages.

Anyway, it’s clear that New Jersey has a deep bench of Grade-B to A assets to offer to the San Jose Sharks for Meier.

There’s a deal to be made with the Devils, will it be made?

Well remember according to that Peng article and his comment responses in it, one of the options was a 1st + two B grade prospects, and he said his insider exec considered Holtz + Muk as both B prospects. So that should mean 1st+Holtz+Muk would fit the ask (assuming Casey would also be considered a B by their camp). They reserved grade A for Hughes, Mercer and called Nemec an "A/B tweener". So I think this deal actually fits Grier's ask. That's not to say Fitz is offering it

Oh would you look at that, not the package I’m presenting or anything lol

“three pieces in a Meier trade – a first-round pick and two Grade-B prospects, a first-round pick and a Grade-A prospect”

A prospects listed: Luke Hughes
B prospects listed: Holtz, Mercer, Nemec (tweener)

Completely consistent with what others have said.

And very far from what NJD would do.

Did you fail to read the bottom?! You got very selective vision my friend.

Literally says the deal would be 1st/Holtz/Mukh

This is the one I've been asking for and thought was fair from the beginning... We'll see. Thanks for posting the article contents, I didn't see it.

and to further that:

https://theathletic.com/4126173/2023/01/26/timo-meier-trade-sharks-devils/

Corey Masisak, the ex NJD beat reporter for the Athletic said, on Jan 26, that he predicted the trade would be:

Meier
for
2023 or 24 1st
Holtz
Mukhamadullin
Johnsson

Curious to get your thoughts on what NJD would want in a package from the Sharks beyond Meier if Meier / Holtz + Muk + 23 1st isn't equal.

I’m good with it on our side. I’d shake your hand and call it a day if I could.