Keep in mind that when dealing with pending UFAs retention isn't going to cost a team as much as it would for players with multiple years remaining on their contract. Unused retention slots become useless after the deadline until the following season, so leveraging them is an opportunity for the team retaining to incentivize a trade, increase value (slightly), and increase the number of potential trade partners for high cap hit players.
Also keep in mind that in terms of actual dollar cost for retention/double retention the cap hit is often less important than the actual salary remaining (excluding bonuses, which have already been paid at this point) for both the first and second retaining team.
As an example, pending UFA Johnathan Toews has a 10.5M cap hit, however this final year of his contract consisted of a 4 million dollar signing bonus (already paid) and then 2.9M in actual salary. At the TDL (61 of 82 games played), he will have been paid roughly 2.15M of that remaining 2.9M, leaving only ~750K of actual salary remaining. This means that if Chicago retains 50%, it only costs them the retention spot + ~375K in real dollars while bringing his cap hit down to 5.25M. If Chicago moves him to another team for additional 50% retention as a broker in the deal, CHI still pays ~375K, the retaining broker team pays ~187.5K (and retains 2.625M in cap space) and the final acquiring team pays ~187.5K (with a cap hit for Toews of 2.625M).
With this in mind, you are only paying the broker team assets to cover ~187.5K in salary costs + use of their retention slot. This is not an obscene ask, especially for a team that might be offloading assets already with unused retention slots who is still attempting to reach the cap floor without paying full salary (think rebuilding cash strapped teams such as ARZ, ANA, CLB as well as retooling teams that aren't necessarily cash strapped but near the floor or offloading high priced players such as CHI, DET, OTT, SJ.
Unfortunately Armchair GM doesn't handle double retention trades yet, but here is just one example from the Leafs' perspective.
Notes:
- I know STL fans think they will get a 1st+ for O'Reilly based on reputation, but given performance and injury I think this type of return (2nd + 3rd + B prospect) is more likely.
- I also know that acquiring two veteran players with declining numbers that have been battling injuries is not necessarily ideal. (This is just an example of double retention lowering costs, not necessarily what I think is best.)
- I also know that ARZ fans think any Chychrun deal with Toronto needs to include their hometown boy Matthew Knies, but I don't think Kyle moves him. Including Sandin gives them a 22 year old immediate NHL-level replacement at a lower cost with potential to grow in an elevated role under team control.
- I also know that Knies may not be NHL ready this year, let alone ready for 3rd line minutes in the playoffs, however given that he is 20, man-sized, and doing great in the NCAA, I like the idea of pairing him with O'Reilly to give him some playoff pedigree to lean on on the 3rd line.
- This lineup has great C depth that should win most face-off battles in the playoffs. It also has the potential to spread out scoring more over 3 lines if needed by pairing one of Nylander, Marner, or Kane with O'Reilly to match match-ups a nightmare, especially for 3rd pairing D
O'Reilly with 50% retention from STL + brokered through ANA
Note: O'Reilly's post-bonus salary this season is 1M with ~260K left to pay out at the TDL. STL retains half of that actual salary (130K) and half the cap hit (3.75M) via a trade to ANA as a broker team as part of the deal.
ANA then flips him to TOR at another 50% retained, costing them the use of 1 of their retention slots, 65K in salary, and 1.85M on their cap.
Note, Kerfoot has a cap of 3.5M, but only roughly 195K in salary remaining for the season at the TDL. He can help a team reach the floor at a low cost. He doesn't need to go to Chicago, but adding him here for convenience to free up more cap for TOR.
4.
TOR
For brokering the second 50% retention on O'Reilly.
Cost to OTT:
- Use of 1 of their retention slots until the end of this season
- 187.5K in salary
- 2.625M added to their cap (sorry had a typo in the cap in the Kane trade, this is the correct cap)
NOTE: Ottawa could be any team in a position to retain at low cost.
Not a salary retention, but instead an additional hockey trade made possible by the added cap.
Note: Mayo makes a full 1M a year for the next two years and has been in the minors making that full NHL salary all year for ARZ. He is a salary dump to Toronto that can afford to pay him that to play in the AHL.
The level of backlash Armstrong would get for this sort of return would be immense.
If this is the price you’re looking to pay. Shop for Toews instead.
Blues are better off working an extension on ROR and or biting the bullet of the possibility of him walking. There’s no protection on ROR, it’s a very minimal salary. There’s very little reason he shouldn’t return a 1st.
The level of backlash Armstrong would get for this sort of return would be immense.
If this is the price you’re looking to pay. Shop for Toews instead.
Blues are better off working an extension on ROR and or biting the bullet of the possibility of him walking. There’s no protection on ROR, it’s a very minimal salary. There’s very little reason he shouldn’t return a 1st.
I respectfully disagree based on his performance and injury this season as I mentioned in my comments. That said, if I were a Blues fan, I would certainly be of a similar opinion of the value of my captain, playoff MVP (many years removed now), and heart and soul type player. While several years older, Toews has out performed O'Reilly this season and I would expect similar values for both at the TDL. On the plus side, if the return comes in lower than the STL fanbase hopes, there is always the opportunity to re-sign him in the off season after the trade and still enjoy your bag of picks and prospects.
I respectfully disagree based on his performance and injury this season as I mentioned in my comments. That said, if I were a Blues fan, I would certainly be of a similar opinion of the value of my captain, playoff MVP (many years removed now), and heart and soul type player. While several years older, Toews has out performed O'Reilly this season and I would expect similar values for both at the TDL. On the plus side, if the return comes in lower than the STL fanbase hopes, there is always the opportunity to re-sign him in the off season after the trade and still enjoy your bag of picks and prospects.
Those picks and prospect likely amount to nothing. Why take the risk.
Many years removed isn’t necessarily true. It’s been 3 years. He still performed at a PPG pace last playoffs. I think you severely underestimate how good ROR has been as recently as 8 months ago and I also think you’re outlandishly outlining a foot injury and a lack of a competent defensive system and personnel that the Blues currently have.
Neither of us truely know. But if this is the return for ROR. Armstrongn should be fired this off-season.
Voit is producing in juniors currently which is nice. I’m not sure I view him as a solid B prospect though. I don’t think you realize how unappealing two picks around 58 and 70 sound. It’s long shot territory. And it’s generally 5+ years out territory. This direction ensures that we waste Kyrou and Thomas’ prime. It’s generally not much better than letting him walk if we can’t re-sign him.
I respectfully disagree based on his performance and injury this season as I mentioned in my comments. That said, if I were a Blues fan, I would certainly be of a similar opinion of the value of my captain, playoff MVP (many years removed now), and heart and soul type player. While several years older, Toews has out performed O'Reilly this season and I would expect similar values for both at the TDL. On the plus side, if the return comes in lower than the STL fanbase hopes, there is always the opportunity to re-sign him in the off season after the trade and still enjoy your bag of picks and prospects.
How many times have you watched the Blues play this season?
Those picks and prospect likely amount to nothing. Why take the risk.
Many years removed isn’t necessarily true. It’s been 3 years. He still performed at a PPG pace last playoffs. I think you severely underestimate how good ROR has been as recently as 8 months ago and I also think you’re outlandishly outlining a foot injury and a lack of a competent defensive system and personnel that the Blues currently have.
Neither of us truely know. But if this is the return for ROR. Armstrongn should be fired this off-season.
Voit is producing in juniors currently which is nice. I’m not sure I view him as a solid B prospect though. I don’t think you realize how unappealing two picks around 58 and 70 sound. It’s long shot territory. And it’s generally 5+ years out territory. This direction ensures that we waste Kyrou and Thomas’ prime. It’s generally not much better than letting him walk if we can’t re-sign him.
Voit is another Bracco, but way smaller and a worse skater. This offer is obviously a clown show.