SJ easily declines. Quantity does not equal quality.

Going to cost more than a late 1st, a 2nd 2 years away, 2 slightly-above-average prospects and a cap dump for Meier with rentention.

2023 1sts are carrying a-lot of value compared to any other year, I think they will be heavily protected this year

maybe but a team-controlled young star would certainly be the exception. Start with Niemela + 2023 1st as the base, likely need to add Robertson and possibly another piece too. Think about it, you're not getting him for free - other teams know you can recoup assets by moving him at the draft too which will only mean that his price gets driven up

Robertson is a good sweetner at best now and not centerpiece material (he never really was since he was at best an A- prospect). He's got a bit of an injury history now and he might be seen as injury prone due to his size rather than a reoccurring injury.

Idk if Niemela is something that SJ would want but a good replacement for Meier would be Knies, so the ask could be something like Knies+Robertson+2025 1st (or 2024 2nd).

i think every team would want a possible adam fox type of dmen

Yes, Sharks have a lot of very solid Forward prospects already and really need to get some good D-men, especially on the right side. I'd be happy with Niemela, Kerfoot, Robertson, 2023 1st round pick, and 2024 2nd round pick (condition that if the Leafs make it to the ECF it upgrades to a 2024 1st)

Maybe a bit of an overpay for Toronto but Meier is only getting moved if the return is good, otherwise he'll likely be extended.

Probably, but that's probably what they will look to draft themselves or get in a Karlsson trade. Meier and Knies' skillset is also something sought. I don't think the Leafs would give up either though since they can use both Knies and Niemela sooner or later especially with their ELCs. If they do land Meier, I would imagine it would have to be in a steal of a trade similar to what the OP has more or less.



If Niemela does fill a need then, maybe Niemela+Robertson+ a 2nd+(maybe a 3rd/4th too for retention) + cap component since I guess Robertson could potentially at least replace the goal scoring aspect that Meier has.

The Leafs might get away without giving up a 1st depending on the offers for Meier, and perhaps that would be enough for them to part ways with Niemela.

No way are the leafs giving up Knies for a guy they can't afford to resign next year.

The Leafs unwillingness to give up Knies won't prevent teams from asking for him. It's why I don't expect the Leafs to land Meier or even have the interest if they expect to have Knies for the playoffs. They already have the big 4 so if all they need is Meier's skill set, then they are better off going with Knies and adding someone just in-case he doesn't sign.