Bear was never a healthy scracth. He blew out his ankle in december and it needed surgery then and there. He only missed time when he was literally unable to walk.

Yes, Canes fans don't know hockey. Carolina fans know how to win a round and we don't know hockey. Get your head straight. We know this sport just as well as you leaf fans. Like it or not, we do. We're exposed to more of the rules than you are, and we see faster pace games than you do. We know this sport at least as well as you leaf fans.

As I've said, just because Lilly and Sandin are younger doesn't mean anything if they're not going to be as good as Skjei is. Seth Jarvis is younger than McDavid. Does that make him better? No. Obviously this is an exaggerated example, but the point is transferable. Neither of Sandin or Lilly has a ceiling at this point better than what Skjei is. They make less because they are worse.

Skjei has won series. Not only that, Skjei has won a series in Carolina playing on the top pairing because Slavin was hurt. That's something not even Rielly has done. And I say Skjei won that series because he had the highest xWAR of any Canes player during that series. You can individualise the stats.

Reread what I said. I said ONE of them. I never said both. Feel free to go and reread what I said and educate yourself as to what I've already put out there before you try and make a counterargument agreeing with me.

Now find the one JFresh put up without Giordano. Those stats tank LMAO. He's useless without a complimentary partner.

Alright, let's do this. What are you using to determine these stats wise? NST? That has them 4th. EH? 3rd. HR? 2nd. Dom's model? 5th. Let's go. I'm going to be very clear. I want a source. Skjei - Pesce was a top 3 pairing.

https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm, look at the other partners he played with and put up good results

Yes, look at how there's a gigantic increase across the board with Giordano. He's replacement level with other guys, but with Giordano he's actually like really solid. That just proves how good he is with Gio

What, and I mean what, are you on about. NST doesn't have a means of ranking D pairs. HR doesn't even have good advanced stats. Dom doesn't track D-pairs that way. I can't speak on EH, but I'm pretty skeptical that's the case.

I get the vibe that you're just trying to argue your homer view and I'm sorry non-Canes fans aren't looking through your rose-coloured glasses, but they're so tinted you can barely see anything through them. Certainly not enough to see what other teams actually need.

Let me get this straight. This dude came at you with stats and your reply is is essentially saying that those stats don’t count and the one that you are familiar with, you doubt? While also failing to present the evidence that they asked for from you regarding pesce and Skjei being a bad pairing? You can’t be serious right now. Homer or not, you just made yourself look like both a **** and a jackass at once.

You're still yet to list a source. Dom doesn't do pairing rankings, but he does isolated metrics. Something at are unique to his algarithm. He's been quite straightforward about how his model is set up to allow someone to take any players that play together and take the average of their rankings in any stat he maintains. So, he doesn't directly.

NST tracks defensive pairs. It's under the players tab on the website. The fact you didn't know that makes me think you're talking out of your rear end here trying to prove a point with evidence that doesn't exist. I'll ask again, please link me the source you used to site Skjei - Pesce not being one of the best analytical pairings in hockey. I asked forever ago. Or, admit you were making this BS up. Either way, I think you need to stop until you know what you're talking about

Not just that, but the statement "NST doesn't track D pair rankings" is wrong. https://www.naturalstattrick.com/pairings.php

There were no stats that were cited, there were allusions to rankings that the sources in question don't provide. I also never said Pesce and Skjei were a bad pairing, I said they weren't 3rd best and weren't the best on the Canes. Which any idiot that watches a Canes game could see, because Slavin. I didn't think I needed to cite moneypuck because someone else did already and I can't cite Sportlogiq because I don't have the authority to do so.



Ah, I'm starting to get where you're incredibly tilted D pair rankings are coming from. But yes, if you narrow all D pairs and isolate for xGF% only, then Skjei-Pesce is 4th... Out of 26ish D pairs. Creating a list that excludes the vast majority of top D-pairs. Are all your rankings based on that or are some actually not trying to come to a conclusion you're desperate to support.

They still have a year with Reilly-Brodie Muzzin-Holl Gio-Liljegren. After they still have Reilly-Brodie Muzzin-? Gio-Liljgren and Sandin. I’m a Habs fans but watched enough of Sandin to know he could play on the top 4, he is good. They just don’t have room for him right now. They will need him in the future, same for Liljegren.

Caniac 2k - you literally just called gio a husk but now you’re writing liligren’s advanced stats off because he’s playing with - whichvisvit? If anything, yhink you’d give Lili more credit .,. Truth is he (& Sandin) had good numbers (cf, ff, xgf%, hdcf%) all year and gio only joined at the deadline. Big no from leafs on this trade

Giordano is a husk of what he used to be. That is undeniable and it is true. That doesn't mean that he is useless. Giordano is coming down from being one of the best D men in the NHL. OBviously he is still going to be serviceable.

Truth is... Lillys numbers are replacement level with everyone else. I'm worried if you think he;s a top 4 D man right now. Yes, Lilly Giordano is still unproven because it had such a small sample size. As you said, he only arrived at the deadline. It's my one reservation stopping me from flat out saying he isn't going to be a top 4 D man because he hadn't been showing any signs of it before Gio arrived.

Fair enough - he has to prove it, but I’m confident (& I think a lot of leaf fans are) that lili (& Sandin) are top 4 ready. Having gio, muzz (& maybe Holl) as insurance just in case. So trade just doesn’t make sense imo - plus Leafs were top 10 in all important d categories last year, except ga - because our goaltending was not consistent (27th).

That'll kill you, but my point is still true. We know Toronto's high end talent can carry them through a season. If you get a 70 goal season from Matthews and miss the playoffs, he should be abllowed to be traded to wherever he wants for nothing. However, both that D core and G tandem has questions. Skjei is what he is. Solid top 4 D man that was excellent last year and has even played 1st line minutes in a playoff series in Carolina (Against Nashville in the 2021 year, Slavin was injured). As this argument started off with me saying, if the leafs are going to get Skjei, it's going to take one of what is involved in this package. Noth both and a 1st, but given the defensive frailites and that given what he does, Skjei's contract is a lot better than most give it credit for. If a Skjei trade to Toronto doesn't work for reason X, Y, Z, that's fine. But he's certainly worth one of those two if he is dealt was my point. For example, Nylander to Carolina would probably net Necas + 1st + something like Bear. Carolina can't afford it and (assume Pacioretty's Achillies didn't snap in this scenario) don't exactly need it. But it's still true as to what his value is.

Why would you say the “if the leafs miss the playoffs”? We finished 1 point behind you in a tougher division. Are the canes going to miss the playoffs - come on, that just makes no sense.

Leaf problems are not due to D; they ‘ve lost some really close series (& had their share of bad luck, which happens) to teams that ended up going to the finals. And they played Tampa much tougher than the team that beat you out.
We have yet to find a goalie (incl Freddy) that can make the big save, or yet to find a 3rd liner that can pop in a big goal. Hopefully this year 🤞 but no major overhaul needdd.
Leafs don’t need to trade anyone on d unless it’s for cap reasons, which this isn’t.

Okay, if you think honestly the Atlantic is EVER a tougher division than the Metro, get your head checked. Last time I checked, this is STILL the toughest in the sport and it will be again this year. It has been the toughest division in hockey since the realignment. Get outta here saying the Atlantic is tougher

Read what I said after I said if the Leafs miss the playoffs. Don't cherry pick. Anything can be wraped out of context.

Yes, Boston and Tampa were scarily close in the standings so to say "Tampa is a much tougher team than Boston" is just not true. Oh and Carolina beat the Bruins with a BACKUP and THIRD STRING goalie. Yes, Kochetkov went 1-1 in that Bruins series on 1 start.

Toronto needs another top 4 D I feel, but I get the feeling this is something Leafs fans view the same way Canes fans view the 2C question. There's guys in house that have proven that they deserve that chance and you let them fight it out to see which one gets it. If neither can fill that hole, then you look to external issues. I get that. But at the end of the day, until there is a solution, it is fair to say that maybe external help is the best course of action.

731 vs 718 total points. The Atlantic had an argument for being stronger last year but the metro was more balanced therefore making it stronger. 6/8 teams were over 80 points vs 4 for the Atlantic. Not to mention both divisions had 4 teams over 100 points making them clearly the strongest two divisions. If you ask which division was more top heavy, yes it’s the Atlantic. If you ask which was harder, it’s clearly the metro. Sure the Atlantics top 4 is better than the metros but the bottom 4 which imo determines how hard a division is, it is the met all day.

Anyways onto the point the where the leafs may miss the playoffs. It is very possible for the leafs to miss the playoffs. If you put all of your eggs into one basket and you drop that basket, you have no eggs. Think of that in terms of the leafs top 4 forwards plus Reilly. If one of Matthew’s or marner gets injured for a substantial amount of time, the leafs playoff odds are in jeopardy. If 2 of the other 3 get injured, playoffs would be a target, not an expectation. Not to mention how the leafs got worse this off-season and how every other team in the division other than the Florida teams got better or stayed the same.

BOS- they got krejci and Zacha and lost only haula. Better.
BUF- lost miller and pysyk but they have key graduations in 3 top 30 propsects in quinn peterka and power. Better.
DET- do I even need to get into this? Better.
OTT- again, do I need to explain? Better.
Habs- non factor but got a little better I would hope being that bad last year. Same or better.

Now for the Florida teams it’s Tampa and Florida who between the two were Stanley cup finalists and presidents trophy winners. Florida obviously lost the most so they won’t be as good but Tampa I think could be similar to last year as they have only two real subtractions in mcdougnah and palat.

Now the leafs? Lost campbell kase and soup man. Added? Jarnkrok Murray and samsonov? That goal tending tandem is atrocious. Samsonov I like but in no world should he be paired with murray for a tandem. That in my opinion is a bottom 5 tandem in the league.

So how do I think the leafs miss the playoffs? The goaltending performs as expected, a key injury to a top player, and the division getting all around better. It will be harder for the leafs to win games with this tandem and a much stronger division. Plus the metro being much more balanced? If the leafs finish 4th, they have a chance of missing the playoffs. The metro is likely going to have both the canes and the rangers in the top 2, and then could have any of the teams not from Philadelphia make the playoffs realistically. The metro is getting better as well. Young talent coming up and top players signing in free agency (Yes I am assuming kadri to NYI but that is all but announced right now). There is a world where the leafs put up 100 points even and lose out to 8 other teams.

Assuming the leafs goaltending goes as I predict and there is a top player sidelined by injury for 30+ games, these are my standings predictions.

Atlantic:
Y-TBL
X-FLA
X-OTT
X-DET
TOR
BOS
BUF
MTL

Metro:
Z-CAR
X-NYR
X-NYI
X-PIT
WSH
NJD
CBJ
PHI

Honestly any team who isn’t montreal or philly, I could see making the playoffs. CBJ NJD and BUF are dark horses but if things work out they could make the playoffs. The only true locks for the playoffs at where we are right now are imo Carolina, Tampa, and the rangers. Everybody else I believe could make or miss the playoffs. Not to slight the leafs but I do believe there is a world where the leafs miss the playoffs next year.

Atlantic had 4 teams in top 10; metro 2. Atlantic had a lot of bottom feeders true but Fla, Toronto, Tampa, Boston > canes, nyr, Pitt , wash. The bottom teams weren’t particularly good in either div so yes Atlantic is tougher. Much harder to finish top 1 or 2 in Atlantic than metro.
Every team has reasons they lose series. My point was the leafs took Tampa to 7 games, really close. Tampa beat rangers in 6 (not that close imo) and the rangers beat you. Not exact or totally fair comparison but to say leaf’s can’t win in playoffs until upgrade on d makes no sense, other than all teams can get better in all positions. We need better goaltending, better pp execution and just a bit more depth scoring (1 or 2 goals per series) in tight playoff games. That’s it sounds like a lot but not really - we have the hardest parts covered (elite offense, above average defense, really good special teams). Unfortunately about 5-10 other teams do too; 3 or 4 of which play in Atlantic

And never say never (touch wood)but leaf’s don’t go from 115 points to missing the playoffs b/c of the two soupies . Leafs were 27th in goaltending last year and they still finished 4th overall . SMH

I’m still processing - everyone entitled to an opinion, but…
Vegas has leafs tied with canes for 2nd best odds to win the cup but you believe there is a world where leaf’s can miss the playoffs . Agree to disagree on that one

The Atlantic also had the worst team in the NHL. Not just a lot of them, Montreal finished dead last. Buffalo, Detroit and Ottawa weren't much better. 6 of the top 10 teams in the East were from the Metro. The Metro's worst team was still the best of the teams to finish last in their division. Carolina were also in the Presidents Trophy race until Andersen got hurt. I'm not going to listen to this because any fantasy the Atlantic is the tougher division is just wrong.

New York shouldn't have been that far in the playoffs anyway. They ran into 2 teams that didn't have a healthy starter. If Carolina go toe to toe with Tampa, yeah it's still probably Tampa, but it's going the distance. If Carolina had a healthy starter, they could have been knocking on the door of the finals, but we'll never know because of that game in Colorado.

Toronto's defense is not above average and I'd argue their offense isn't elite. The big 4 are... well Tavares... at least 3 of them are, I need more from Tavares to say he is still. Their depth isn't there. That offense lost to a ZAMBONI DRIVER. Oh and if you claim the hardest parts are elite offense, above average defense and special teams, Carolina, New York, Washington, Pittsburgh all have that. At least by what you're claiming the Leafs do. Matthews is a god. Crosby, Ovechkin, Panarin, Zibanejad, Kuznetsov, Guentzel, Malkin, Zibanejad. The hardest thing in the NHL realistically to find is good goaltending. Show me a good team and 99% of the time, I will show you a good goaltender. Look at Vasilevskiy, Freddie was nuts, Bob had an up year, Jarry was really good, Shesterkin was the best goaltender we've seen in the cap era. There are exceptions to the rule (washington, Toronto, Colorado) but you have to have a good goaltender. If your goalie is leaking goals, you're gonna go anywhere. And Toronto have 2 goalies that leak historically. Now, the way around that is to play fantastic defense. After all, David Ayres...

How... All it takes is a serious Matthews injury. That applies to any team in the NHL. Vasilevskiy gets hurt, Tampa are in deep trouble. Colorado without Makar (although this is a little more survivable). Florida without Barkov. Edmonton without McDavid. Vegas missed last year, and they have the 2nd best odds this year you say (which I disagree with entirely), don't bank on it. In a sport played on ice with a rub disk made of vulcanized rubber, anything can happen

And only time will tell on Murray, but his numbers post injury were good - 2.54, .921 Jan (7 games), 2.11, .943 Feb (5 games). Leaf mgmt must think he showed enough to get back to his glory days + he’ll be playing in front of much better team. As long as stays healthy - not too concerned, again leafs hoaltending was 27th last year…hard to think Murray /samsonov could be worse with hope they’ll be better. Leafs are a better team than Carolina imo, but it’s real close amongst top 10.
At least I would never try to peddle canes miss the playoffs - that was too much

Las Vegas (gambling odds), not Vegas the team. Point is pretty much everyone has leafs as a lock for playoffs (understanding there is no such thing). Just ridiculous to state leafs likely to miss playoffs, ridiculous.

Ayres hurt but don’t forget dec 29, 2029 - we scored 3 goals in 59 seconds (that’s right less than a minute) to win. “Marner with the steal …”