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5v5 machine broke

Créé par: BeterChiarelli
Équipe: 2021-22 Oilers d'Edmonton
Date de création initiale: 8 déc. 2021
Publié: 8 déc. 2021
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
Please fire Tippett and his staff (save Gulutzan) for the love of god. Bring Woodcroft, Manson, and the rest of the Condors' staff up. Over $7M in dead cap; I'm confident that with a coach that knows what he's doing this team makes noise in the playoffs.

I think the Oilers are fully on-board with Skinner staying up in the NHL this year and are going to want to test-drive the Smith-Skinner tandem to see what they should be expecting for next season. This trade could happen as soon as Smith is healthy for all I care. Koskinen has played himself out of Edmonton but I think at a more appropriate AAV the Sabres would happily play him and allow their AHL netminders to return back to Rochester. The pick in return is a lot higher than one should expect for Eakin without retention (late fourth to mid-fifth range?) and the addition of a C-prospect to that surplus value should be enough to account for Koskinen going to Buffalo. I think Mikko waives his NTC so long as the Sabres *want* him. I reckon a team actually wanting him is going to prove far more important than cup odds or tax rates.

I think the Habs deal is a clever way for the Oilers to get out of one of Holland's earliest mistakes while improving their roster and satisfying the absurd price that Chiarot has attached to his name right now.

Only truly iffy about the value in the Flyers' deal. I've seen picks in the realm of a 3rd and 6th going for Braun and Brassard respectively: I would value Benson at an early 4th and Koekkoek at a late 5th. Benson probably locks down the #4LW spot in Philly for like the next 3-4 years (Ratcliffe being his only real competition and Benson has the AHL numbers to win out the spot) and wouldn't be the worst name having to elevate to the #3LW spot in a pinch. Koekkoek occupies the #6/7D role for probably the remainder of his deal: I suspect the Flyers - if they purge at this deadline - are only finishing the year with some combination of Provorov, Ellis, Sanheim, Morin, York, and Zamula. Maybe Clendening comes up to end the year and the kids stay in Lehigh for the Calder playoffs? I have the Oilers tossing in a 4th that's a couple years out to balance the deal as getting bottom of the roster pieces for a pair of rentals really isn't enough. Given the volume of mid-round picks they'll likely be raking in this deadline, I don't think the "when" of the pick in question should be of much importance. What's really important about this trade is twofold: Edmonton gains quality depth and a potential competitor doesn't.

I think flipping Barrie and Yamamoto between the draft and July 1st helps recoup some picks. This team has all of the high-end pieces it needs for a while so a steady stream of replaceable parts is all that's really required.
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
LISTE DE RÉSERVEANSCAP HIT
3925 000 $
3925 000 $
2925 000 $
3925 000 $
2925 000 $
1925 000 $
3925 000 $
Transactions
1.
BUF
  1. Koskinen, Mikko (1 750 000 $ retained)
  2. Siikanen, Patrik [Liste de réserve]
  3. Choix de 3e ronde en 2023 (EDM)
2.
EDM
  1. Chiarot, Ben (1 750 000 $ retained)
  2. Toffoli, Tyler
MTL
  1. Kassian, Zack (750 000 $ retained)
  2. Lagesson, William
  3. Lavoie, Raphael
  4. Choix de 1e ronde en 2022 (EDM)
  5. Choix de 1e ronde en 2023 (EDM)
3.
EDM
  1. Brassard, Derick
  2. Braun, Justin (900 000 $ retained)
PHI
  1. Benson, Tyler
  2. Koekkoek, Slater
  3. Choix de 4e ronde en 2024 (EDM)
Rachats de contrats
Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire
Enfoui
Repêchage1e ronde2e ronde3e ronde4e ronde5e ronde6e ronde7e ronde
2022
Logo de EDM
Logo de EDM
Logo de EDM
Logo de EDM
2023
Logo de EDM
Logo de EDM
Logo de EDM
Logo de EDM
Logo de EDM
2024
Logo de EDM
Logo de EDM
Logo de EDM
Logo de EDM
Logo de EDM
Logo de EDM
TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2381 500 000 $77 059 468 $669 339 $907 500 $4 440 532 $

Formation

Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
2 125 000 $2 125 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 3
Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
12 500 000 $12 500 000 $
C
UFA - 5
Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
1 175 000 $1 175 000 $
AD
UFA - 1
Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
5 125 000 $5 125 000 $
AG, C
NMC
UFA - 8
Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
8 500 000 $8 500 000 $
C, AG
UFA - 4
Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
5 500 000 $5 500 000 $
AD, AG
NMC
UFA - 7
Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
2 750 000 $2 750 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 3
Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
1 175 000 $1 175 000 $
AD
RFA - 1
Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
750 000 $750 000 $
AD, C
UFA - 1
Logo de Flyers de Philadelphie
412 500 $412 500 $
C, AG
UFA - 1
Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
834 167 $834 167 $ (Bonis de performance57 500 $$58K)
C
RFA - 1
Logo de Sabres de Buffalo
2 250 000 $2 250 000 $
C
UFA - 1
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
5 600 000 $5 600 000 $
DG
UFA - 1
Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
863 333 $863 333 $ (Bonis de performance850 000 $$850K)
DD
RFA - 2
Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
2 200 000 $2 200 000 $
G
UFA - 2
Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
5 538 462 $5 538 462 $
DG
NMC
UFA - 2
Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
3 250 000 $3 250 000 $
DD
UFA - 4
Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
750 000 $750 000 $
G
UFA - 2
Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
4 500 000 $4 500 000 $
DD
UFA - 3
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
0 $0 $
DG/DD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
1 250 000 $1 250 000 $
DG/DD
UFA - 1
Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
4 167 000 $4 167 000 $
DG
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
1 250 000 $1 250 000 $
C, AD
UFA - 2
Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
1 500 000 $1 500 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 1
Logo de Flyers de Philadelphie
900 000 $900 000 $
DD
UFA - 1
Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
785 000 $785 000 $
G
UFA - 1

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8 déc. 2021 à 19 h 37
#1
Hockey247
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drop lavoie and add a better prospect.
8 déc. 2021 à 19 h 51
#2
MisstheWhalers
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Would you even need to retain on Koskinen if Eakin is coming back.
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8 déc. 2021 à 19 h 54
#3
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Quoting: Hockey247
drop lavoie and add a better prospect.


No, not at least until you can convince me otherwise. Assume for the sake of argument Edmonton finishes with the 24th overall pick (their current position via points percentage).

I've been adamant that even when fully retained, Chiarot isn't worth a first round pick but rather in the realm of a second round pick and a prospect like Lavoie. Habs fans are overvaluing him based on what most other hockey fans consider an inappropriate comparison to Savard. Given that we expect the Oilers to acquire Chiarot in this case, I would thus be valuing Chiarot to the #56 pick and Lavoie.

Kassian with the retention of a league-minimum deal, the 2023 first, and Lagesson falls short of fair value for Toffoli even if the Habs are looking a proper rebuild dead in the eyes. I don't think anyone would argue this

Using historical draft pick values (https://bluebulletreport.com/2020/10/05/2020-nhl-draft-rankings/), the difference in pick values between Edmonton's first round pick and second round pick this year is a bit less than the #30 pick. I think that such a gap in pick values more than makes up for the deficit in how I've broken down the deal. If we concede that hockey fans outside of the Montreal Canadiens fan base are correct in evaluating Chiarot in the 2nd rounder+Lavoie range AND that there's a value deficit in the above Toffoli breakdown, then bumping the value of the pick being exchanged for Chiarot covers the value missing in the Toffoli breakdown.

At its crux it's a remarkably fair deal to the point where Montreal is even on the hook for less cash than the Oilers are.
8 déc. 2021 à 19 h 56
#4
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Quoting: MisstheWhalers
Would you even need to retain on Koskinen if Eakin is coming back.


I proposed an Eakin trade earlier in the week that was met with some resistance (Eakin @ 50% retained for Koekkoek, Turris, and the 2023 4th) so I'd rather remove as much room for a counterargument from any naysayers by removing as much value coming from Buffalo's end as possible.
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8 déc. 2021 à 20 h 0
#5
torontos finest
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Minor thing but retaining on Kassian may not be ideal. 750k for three years isn't much but that's not having a league minimum roster player on your team.
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8 déc. 2021 à 20 h 15
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Quoting: mondo
Minor thing but retaining on Kassian may not be ideal. 750k for three years isn't much but that's not having a league minimum roster player on your team.


The intention of that retention - as Kassian currently cannot justify his AAV - was that the Habs take his poor deal but essentially get the cost of one of their league-min players covered in the process.

Given how the dead cap sheds from the Oilers over the next couple of seasons, these rumoured cap increases, and the influx of some ELC deals over the next 2-3 years, the Oilers should be fine over that span. Maybe they end up running a 22-man roster next year but it's very much a short-term issue at best.
8 déc. 2021 à 20 h 20
#7
Hockey247
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
No, not at least until you can convince me otherwise. Assume for the sake of argument Edmonton finishes with the 24th overall pick (their current position via points percentage).

I've been adamant that even when fully retained, Chiarot isn't worth a first round pick but rather in the realm of a second round pick and a prospect like Lavoie. Habs fans are overvaluing him based on what most other hockey fans consider an inappropriate comparison to Savard. Given that we expect the Oilers to acquire Chiarot in this case, I would thus be valuing Chiarot to the #56 pick and Lavoie.

Kassian with the retention of a league-minimum deal, the 2023 first, and Lagesson falls short of fair value for Toffoli even if the Habs are looking a proper rebuild dead in the eyes. I don't think anyone would argue this

Using historical draft pick values (https://bluebulletreport.com/2020/10/05/2020-nhl-draft-rankings/), the difference in pick values between Edmonton's first round pick and second round pick this year is a bit less than the #30 pick. I think that such a gap in pick values more than makes up for the deficit in how I've broken down the deal. If we concede that hockey fans outside of the Montreal Canadiens fan base are correct in evaluating Chiarot in the 2nd rounder+Lavoie range AND that there's a value deficit in the above Toffoli breakdown, then bumping the value of the pick being exchanged for Chiarot covers the value missing in the Toffoli breakdown.

At its crux it's a remarkably fair deal to the point where Montreal is even on the hook for less cash than the Oilers are.


i dont gotta convince you lmao. we can easily fetch a 1st for chiarot from another team. and if we move toffoli, thats another 1st and high end prospect. so no to this trade.
8 déc. 2021 à 20 h 46
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Quoting: Hockey247
i dont gotta convince you lmao. we can easily fetch a 1st for chiarot from another team. and if we move toffoli, thats another 1st and high end prospect. so no to this trade.


Edmonton's the only team in the league that has both a want for a Chiarot-esque defenceman and lacks the player evaluation skills to pay that kind of a gaudy price. If other, better defenders like De Haan, Giordano, or Lindholm are going to be available, why are other teams paying a premium for Chiarot? De Haan and Giordano will be cheaper. Lindholm's simply better.

Move past the bias. Lavoie and a second round pick is right on the money for Chiarot. Other Habs fans find this deal amicable, fans of other teams think such a proposal for Chiarot (or Toffoli given your response) are laughable. Finding that middle ground will genuinely improve your experience here.
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8 déc. 2021 à 21 h 44
#9
Hockey247
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Edmonton's the only team in the league that has both a want for a Chiarot-esque defenceman and lacks the player evaluation skills to pay that kind of a gaudy price. If other, better defenders like De Haan, Giordano, or Lindholm are going to be available, why are other teams paying a premium for Chiarot? De Haan and Giordano will be cheaper. Lindholm's simply better.

Move past the bias. Lavoie and a second round pick is right on the money for Chiarot. Other Habs fans find this deal amicable, fans of other teams think such a proposal for Chiarot (or Toffoli given your response) are laughable. Finding that middle ground will genuinely improve your experience here.


wrong on all accounts. the biggest attraction to chiarot is his experience in size. but sure if the oilers don't want him, don't trade for him lmao. he'll command a first bud. bookmark it.
8 déc. 2021 à 22 h 0
#10
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Quoting: Hockey247
wrong on all accounts. the biggest attraction to chiarot is his experience in size. but sure if the oilers don't want him, don't trade for him lmao. he'll command a first bud. bookmark it.


A donation to an Edmonton-based charity if I'm right, and I'll donate to a Montreal-based one (if I'm assuming correctly) if I'm wrong. You game?
8 déc. 2021 à 22 h 2
#11
Hockey247
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
A donation to an Edmonton-based charity if I'm right, and I'll donate to a Montreal-based one (if I'm assuming correctly) if I'm wrong. You game?


no. why tf wiuld i donate to a charity when i can pocket the money LMAO.
8 déc. 2021 à 22 h 26
#12
Former Hockey Fan
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The deal is absolutely fair. My willingness to trade Toffoli may not be there, but if that’s the road the team is going down this would definitely be a good way to do it. I also don’t think there’s any appetite to bring Kassian back in the organization, but if he needs to be included to get the deal done he can always be buried in the ECHL or bought out in the off-season (although that comes with an extra bit of a price tag).
8 déc. 2021 à 22 h 36
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Quoting: Kotkaniemi15
I also don’t think there’s any appetite to bring Kassian back in the organization


This is something our good friend @SevenLeg brought up in a previous AGM I had with this deal in it and I don't know if I can fully get behind the idea that Kassian wouldn't be welcome in Montrealat least from a hockey ops perspective. The memory of fanbases is certainly longer but we're talking about an incident seven years ago nearly to the day that may as well have been committed by an entirely different human being.

I think that kind of attitude - while not actually problematic or anything - discredits how much work Kassian has put into himself to get sober and stay that way.
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9 déc. 2021 à 0 h 26
#14
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Quoting: Hockey247
drop lavoie and add a better prospect.


Lavoie is definitely fair value for Chiarot, as an early second rounder, but I think Lagesson is really where this trade would fall short. Need something with a little more potential than a fourth rounder who doesn't really have impressive numbers at any level
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9 déc. 2021 à 8 h 24
#15
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Well done, this would be a fun playoff team to watch.
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9 déc. 2021 à 8 h 28
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Quoting: MisstheWhalers
Would you even need to retain on Koskinen if Eakin is coming back. As a Sabre fan I agree.
Quoting: BeterChiarelli
I proposed an Eakin trade earlier in the week that was met with some resistance (Eakin @ 50% retained for Koekkoek, Turris, and the 2023 4th) so I'd rather remove as much room for a counterargument from any naysayers by removing as much value coming from Buffalo's end as possible. That was most likely from me. Koekkoek, Turris, would not add any value to Buffalo on the other hand Koskinen would be Buffalo's top GK right now. If I were the Sabre GM, I would take all of Koskinen's salary, retain on Eakin and leave the balance of the trade the same.
Buffalo has sufficient cap space to take on salary and could use an NHL GK.
If I were the Buffalo GM, I would make this trade.
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9 déc. 2021 à 11 h 6
#17
Hockey247
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Quoting: Scanz
Lavoie is definitely fair value for Chiarot, as an early second rounder, but I think Lagesson is really where this trade would fall short. Need something with a little more potential than a fourth rounder who doesn't really have impressive numbers at any level


lavoie is barely a pro ahl player. it'll be a waste of a trade for the habs to try and acquire a guy who can barely score in the ahl. we need someone who has a high chance of being an nhler.
 
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