Modifié 6 déc. 2021 à 17 h 34
I think it really all depends on the numbers they want. Both Brown and Paul would be great players to keep that are happy in OTT, but with the contracts already out and the ones coming for Stuztle, JDB, Thompson, Sanderson, it might be hard to keep the numbers in the right place.
I Feel like they should both be able to bring back good pieces but are they better than having both those players as the foundation for a solid Third line.
Formenton - Paul - C Brown. It would be hard for Sens to beat that as their third line.
Paul is not efficient as a center, it brings much more defensive responsibility and as a very big body, he doesn't have the + skating required to play his shutdown game as well. It,s a guy who needs to be LW in your bottom-6, that's how he adds value to your lineup, not in the top-6 or not as a center.
Paul - Pinto - Brown
If Pinto didn't miss a whole season I would probably think differently but it is what it is. That line could be great
Is it really though?
Paul has never scored more than 20 points (<30 point pace) and is currently having a very rough year both offensively (0.18 PPG) and defensively (2.5 xGA/60, 3.79 GA/60). He also put up those points in previous seasons whilst having generous deployment alongside solid linemates (top 5 through 2019-2021 are Connor Brown, Colin White, Evgeni Dadonov, Chris Tierney and JG Pageau). As he drops in responsibility once the team gets better, he looks to drop in points too. After all, he puts up 0.8 P/60 this year at 5v5 while playing 17 minutes total a game. Watch when he drops to 13 minutes. And I could go on and on about how he's not, nor should be, a center but I digress. Nick Paul is a bottom 6 winger who is best suited to play as a 4LW on a good team. So if a team is willing to treat him like a Barclay Goodrow and wants to overpay for him, by all means: bye Nick!
No I agree, he's not a center and it's a big reason why he's having a rough year. Pinto and White injuries have hurt him more than anyone else. He needs to be LW for one of these guys with Connor Brown on the other wing so Paul could play his game. His value is not really in his point production and never will. Think about a Paul Gaustad but unfortunately from the wing, which is also why he won't cost an arm and leg to extend. Gaustad was taking 4-5% in C.H.% so let's say Paul gets 3.5% which would be about 2.8 AAV
I have stressed a lot (maybe not on CF) about the importance of having a strong bottom-6 forward group. Guys like Brown, White, Paul and Formenton will be key for having that, Angus Crookshank too
Connor Brown's a bit different as he's actually a great player who produces and does well defensively. He would be awesome to have on our third line when the team is contending. That being said, he's coming up to the end of his deal and has had three straight seasons of ~50 point paces and percentage benders. We gave Brady $8.2M for three straight seasons of 50 point paces, so what is Brown going to ask for given he's actually competent defensively? Certainly not $8M, but even $5M is too much to give a 3rd liner. If he wants to sign a more realistic deal and comprehends that his point totals are a function of giving him more responsibility than he will ever have elsewhere or will have with the team in the next few years, then great. Otherwise, he's better sent out so he isn't lost for free.
Connor Brown is not really a "3rd liner" though and teams know that. They have a completely different way of looking at this than the average fan. He's a matchup forward who excels at EV/PK hockey. Most of his production comes from that. I will just copy/paste the link for my Connor Brown facts if you want to look at them (but you probably know a few of them but look at post #15 in the link below)
I don't see Connor Brown asking for a huge payday, For comparables, you'd have to look at Pageau and Danault for example but they are centers so a tad bit less than them. Actually a 5 years contract like Batherson AAV would be great
You're right that 1st round picks and 2nd rounders aren't immediately helpful, but they can be repackaged into deals for pieces that serve the team well now and into the future without overpaying or overvaluing.
And besides, the team is still probably two years away from making real noise, if not longer.
Problem with that is that we'd have to rely on Dorion being a good GM... Not expecting him to acquire a Reinhart, Arvidsson, Buchnevich or Devon Toews with these assets.
And the team years away from making real noise is exactly the problem. Chabot turns 25 y/o this season... Do we want to wait until he's 28-29 y/o before truly competing? That'd be quite pathetic. Batherson, Tkachuk and Norris (future) contracts will also start consuming themselves