That makes the following off season brutal. 18M of space and having to sign a ton of players. Byram is top pairing by the end of the season, no way he is a 3rd pairing guy going into next year.

if the 2nd line was 16 mill for all 3, I think you'd find a lot better balance and be able to have a lot deeper back end even with extending Mack.
I don't hate Hertl as our 2C, I could get behind that but no way Bura drops out of the top 6 with only kaut/LOC below him.
keeping together the Ranta, Newhook,LOC line IMO is what we'll be trying to do as our 3/4 line.
Overall though I like the big picture I just don't see Forsberg being a mainstay on our 2nd line at any point as his shot % has been steadily declining every year for the last 3-4 years.

If I tried to build off your conjecture I've been reading the Habs might be targeting Girard to pull in a french player with years on contract. What if Avs flipped Girard for Guhle and picks, <--- Right around the time frame you're proposing is right when Bowen Byram needs to get paid right so Girard is dead weight since his money should be going to Byram (who should be in the top 4 this upcoming season already replacing Girard if he stays healthy) 5 million for a 3rd pairing D is TOO MUCH, especially since Girard offers 0 intangibles (which intangibles are usually standard in 3rd pair D on a contending team) So its fair to say that Girard "should" get traded between now IRL and this moment you're looking ahead to, since long term thats Byrams money.

So can add a $3-4 million RD for below Makar and push Barron to 3rd pair and this D core gets scary good again.
I also see Macdonald being with this group long term as well on the back end, which he would then slot up into the 3rd pair with barron. Or if Girard for Guhle + picks is a thing, Guhle could probably be real close to taking that 6-7 spot and a heck of pairing for Barron long term imo.

This is overboard (as you allude to in the description), but I agree that Colorado could be actual players in the UFA market next year. Even if they hang onto EJ and JTC for their final year and extend both Burakovsky and Nuke, they'll have a fair amount to work with. I also think Hertl is the guy they should be after.

Yeah, this AGM would set up a brutal 2023 offseason, as alluded to in the description above.

If Byram is a top pair Dman, or at least top 4, then one could simply swap Helleson for Zhuravlyov. His KHL contract expires after this season and I'd expect that Sakic will try to get him to come over - and in that case having a 3LHD spot open would make sense as a means of luring him over.

Byram -- Makar
Girard -- Toews
Zhuravlyov -- Barron

Nichuskin will likely price himself out of Colorado. Judging by the Coleman deal Nichuskin could probably push for upper 3's or even $4m+ potentially, especially if he has a decent offensive season points wise.

Next offseason looks promising in terms of 2C's on the market, including Couturier, Barkov (though apparently he's soon resigning in FLA), Hertl, Zibanejad, Kadri, etc. There will also be some forwards like Forsberg, Burakovsky, Rakell, etc available too. Colorado should have the means to go after one of these big fish.

If Newhook has a good season and takes the 2C job, and Burakovsky and he have some chemistry I could see Sakic bringing Burakovsky back (if the caphit is reasonable) and then looking for a 2LW in free agency, with Forsberg and Rakell being the prime options.

Hertl is fine on the wing and having a guy who can also play C is pretty desirable. That's why he's my number one. I have always been a Forsberg fan though and certainly wouldn't hate that addition.

I'm of two minds on the idea that Sakic would get involved in FA next year:

1) Joe is not an FA kind of guy. One of the reasons the Avs get good value and have high contract efficiency is that they don't mess around in FA which is almost always a fool's errand. HOWEVER...
2) If the Avs can't get over the hump this season and it's deemed they need something "more" in the form of a Hertl or Couts, they may have to break with their preferences and go for it, knowing full well they will overpay but also understanding that the time is now.

We all know that Nate will get EJ's money when it comes off the books (hell, maybe he does the team a solid and take a bit less in order to get one more bottom-six difference-maker); things will be tight as they move forward but we all know the window is open right now and they're going to have to consider doing things a bit differently if they want to compete. We know TB will still be good and that Vegas will do what it takes. There will also be the up-and-comers as well, nipping at their heels. But if the don't really go at it hard the next 4-6 years, chances are they will never get there before the core starts to dissolve.

I think the whole left right thing gets overplayed a little bit especially with the high end guys. Like Girard I like him on the right side even more than I like him on the left. In an ideal world would you like to pit a right shot and left shot guy on every pair yeah, but not at the expense of benching a better player.

I think you hit on a good point here with FA. Championship teams generally use FA to fill out there roster middle 6 and 3rd pairings and have how grown talent as part of their cores. For me that makes Newhook pivotal that he can be a high end 2C because it allows the Avs to have have strength down the middle and in their top 4, especially if 2 other forwards like Olausson, Ranta, Kaut, Foudy, or Ambrosia can thrive in middle 6 roles.

They're definitely going to need that home-grown talent to emerge soon because they can't afford to pay big-name FA's while keeping the core guys happy in their contracts. They need Olaussen to become Bura, Newhook to become a better version of Kadri, Kaut to become Donny, Foudy to become Nuke. I do wonder, though, if they'd make a trade for Hertl. I know he'd cost a lot but he's legit right now so there's no waiting to see if he develops. He's actually someone worth sacrficing Newhook for because he still has probably 5-7 good years of hockey left in him. If you rescue him from hockey hell, maybe he thanks you by not asking for $9M to re-sign. A move like that may not be the "cost-control" Joe is looking for but it does give a long-term solution at 2C that you can put the younger players around.

I don’t think Newhook is worth sacrificing I think he is a future 65-70 pt player.

Hertl is already that and Newhook getting there is not assured. The window is open right now - to me, it's worth it to make that trade because you know what you're getting. If the Avs keep waiting to see what guys turn into, they may never get over the hump. That being said, I like Newhook and hope he reaches his potential. I can't see Joe making a trade like this so the Avs need him to become that legit 2C.

I think Newhook is a sure thing. Trading guys like Newhook closes the window faster in my opinion because they aren’t going to get a difference maker in the draft who is going to be affordable for years like him particularly a center.

I certainly hope you are correct and that he is ready to take over at 2C sooner rather than later. It would actually be really cool to see him come into the season and push Kadri to the wing. They need Newhook to be good right now.

Yeah they do!

Hertl is a pending UFA so unless you get him extended then yeah that window would close at the end of this season, unless Sakic were to pull a rabbit out of the hat by signing a big name free agent to play 2C.

Imo spending big on someone else’s UFA is not how you win a championship. Look at Tampa, their best players drafted filled that with trade then around the edges in UFA. PIT the same way, CHI the same way. I’m trying to remember the last time a big ticket UFA changed teams and won a championship.

You mentioned Chicago and Pittsburgh, both of whom added Hossa in UFA to put them over the top for cup finals/cups.