I know it is very out there so please don't take too seriously.....
But NJ has cap as one of their primary assets, and by many accounts they are willing to use it. Arizona is looking to shed salary and get out of the OEL long term deal. There is potential for a match for these two teams. But since NJ isn't necessarily in win-now mode, they don't have much purpose for OEL and Kessel. Which is where a third team comes in. I look at Boston as a potential fit since they are very much in win-now mode, have heavily pursued OEL in the past, and have a feel good story and a position of need filled by adding Kessel with little risk.
Basically NJ is taking on heavy heavy salary to add Jakob Chychrun. The hit is extremely high for this year since they are adding Chychrun and retaining $2M on OEL and 50% of the last year of Kessel's deal. Going forward, by retaining $2M on the remainder of the OEL deal they are essentially tacking on an extra $2M to Chychrun's cap hit, which would still bring him in at a more than fair $6.6M for the next four seasons.
Arizona is dumping major salary which seems to be a priority for the organization. They are also adding two first round picks and NJ's top two defensive prospects. It may not be an overwhelming return when a player like Chychrun is involved, but factoring in the money they are cutting, it could really help start a rebuild. This deal, along with a good move for Garland, could give them tons of young assets and free them of the salary burden they have now.
Boston is taking on the least risk out of the three teams in the deal. Short term they are receiving two impact players for 2021-22 at a very reasonable salary. They are ridding themselves of the Moore deal and giving up a first rounder for next year. The expectation for them has to be for the two incoming players to play a major role on a Cup-contending team next season. It's borderline now or never for the Bergeron/Marchand group so I'd imagine they are willing to move a pick that should be in the 20-32OA range. Long term they are getting OEL at 4.25M which should be very attractive even with his recent struggles.
Here is the total in/out for each team. I'm also going to include the salary impact for each team as a result of the deal, because this is very much a money trade.
Arizona:
In: Reilly Walsh, Shakir Mukhamadullin, 2021 1st (NYI), 2022 1st (BOS).
Out: Jakob Chuchrun, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Phil Kessel
New Jersey:
In: Jakob Chychrun, John Moore
Out: Reilly Walsh, Shakir Mukhamadullin, 2021 1st (NYI)
Boston:
In: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Phil Kessel
Out: 2022 1st, John Moore
Flames don't consider that for a nano second. Only one of our top 4 dmen that could be realistically moved is Gio through expansion. Tanev and Hanifin was our best pairing until Hanifin got injured
Oh god the classic bugout AGM Flames fans who refresh CapFriendly looking for Flames trades to be angry about are coming for me. Relax, it was a random throw in trade, I could be off on the value. From what I've heard from Flames fans on here I'm sure a Tanev+Tkachuk for McDavid+Draisaitl deal is coming in the near future.
Oh god the classic bugout AGM Flames fans who refresh CapFriendly looking for Flames trades to be angry about are coming for me. Relax, it was a random throw in trade, I could be off on the value. From what I've heard from Flames fans on here I'm sure a Tanev+Tkachuk for McDavid+Draisaitl deal is coming in the near future.
Bruins would make the deal directly with AZ for Chychrun.
Their 1st and a Reilly walsh level prospect.
It will cost more than that. I am not sure how this deal works on any level though.
Basically be getting OEL with retention and Kessel for a late 1st?
Hey I'm a bit confused....don't think we're on the same page. The value for Chychrun is nowhere near a 1st and Reilly Walsh so I'm not sure where that is coming from. The trade with ARI and NJ is about NJ taking on a total $17.65M of salary from an Arizona team that needs to shed it. Also even on top of that the return is two 1sts, Walsh, and Mukhamadullin (2020 1st round pick defensive prospect). Since the salary retention is key I don't think the trade works directly between Boston and Arizona whatsoever.
As to your last point, do you think OEL+Kessel for a 1st is good or bad for Boston? I think it is very good for them and maybe my value is off, I would be more than happy getting more in return.
You clearly put a lot of thought into this, and i appreciate recognizing that NJ could do a lot with retention. There are three flaws i see with this though:
1. If there is one untouchable in arizona, its chychrun. They would be very foolish to move him now.
2. I really don’t think there’s been any serious indication that boston was in on OEL. It sounds more like OEL wanted to go to boston, but I’m not sure he’s a 4 million dollar player today, and given that he has six years left, that 4.25 number even looks scary.
3. I find it highly doubtful that the bruins have interest in Kassel. Doesn’t really fit their style of play. If they didn’t have a guy like pastrnak on the top line RW, maybe he could be a low risk fit there.
You clearly put a lot of thought into this, and i appreciate recognizing that NJ could do a lot with retention. There are three flaws i see with this though:
1. If there is one untouchable in arizona, its chychrun. They would be very foolish to move him now.
2. I really don’t think there’s been any serious indication that boston was in on OEL. It sounds more like OEL wanted to go to boston, but I’m not sure he’s a 4 million dollar player today, and given that he has six years left, that 4.25 number even looks scary.
3. I find it highly doubtful that the bruins have interest in Kassel. Doesn’t really fit their style of play. If they didn’t have a guy like pastrnak on the top line RW, maybe he could be a low risk fit there.
All fair points for sure. I somewhat disagree with them but that's just my opinion, I certainly can see both sides of each argument.
Hey I'm a bit confused....don't think we're on the same page. The value for Chychrun is nowhere near a 1st and Reilly Walsh so I'm not sure where that is coming from. The trade with ARI and NJ is about NJ taking on a total $17.65M of salary from an Arizona team that needs to shed it. Also even on top of that the return is two 1sts, Walsh, and Mukhamadullin (2020 1st round pick defensive prospect). Since the salary retention is key I don't think the trade works directly between Boston and Arizona whatsoever.
As to your last point, do you think OEL+Kessel for a 1st is good or bad for Boston? I think it is very good for them and maybe my value is off, I would be more than happy getting more in return.
In this deal you are getting Chychrun, OEL and Kessel. I missed Mukhamadullin, but still don't think it's anywhere near the right stratosphere.
I get AZ needs to shed salary, but they would be better off dealing them separately, and they don't really need to shed salary. They can wait it out.
I don't think the Bruins have too much interest in either. I think OEL has interest in Boston. I could be wrong. Same with Kessel.
The Bruins would easily trade an equivalent value for Chychrun as to what NJ is offering. Even if it's Mukhamadullin, Walsh and a 1st. The Bruins could match that offer and would prefer Chychrun.
In this deal you are getting Chychrun, OEL and Kessel. I missed Mukhamadullin, but still don't think it's anywhere near the right stratosphere.
I get AZ needs to shed salary, but they would be better off dealing them separately, and they don't really need to shed salary. They can wait it out.
I don't think the Bruins have too much interest in either. I think OEL has interest in Boston. I could be wrong. Same with Kessel.
The Bruins would easily trade an equivalent value for Chychrun as to what NJ is offering. Even if it's Mukhamadullin, Walsh and a 1st. The Bruins could match that offer and would prefer Chychrun.
I think where we are on different pages is I'm considering OEL and Kessel as having negative value. They have really rough cap hits (and term for OEL) so Arizona being able to unload them is part of the value they are receiving in the trade. I don't think Mukhamadullin, Walsh, and a 1st is enough for Chychrun straight up, not even close. It is those assets plus NJ taking the OEL and Kessel contracts off Arizona's hands that is equaling out the value.
But if you disagree and feel that OEL and Kessel have positive value then we can agree to disagree. If that were the case then I would agree with you that trading each of them seperately would make more sense.
I think where we are on different pages is I'm considering OEL and Kessel as having negative value. They have really rough cap hits (and term for OEL) so Arizona being able to unload them is part of the value they are receiving in the trade. I don't think Mukhamadullin, Walsh, and a 1st is enough for Chychrun straight up, not even close. It is those assets plus NJ taking the OEL and Kessel contracts off Arizona's hands that is equaling out the value.
But if you disagree and feel that OEL and Kessel have positive value then we can agree to disagree. If that were the case then I would agree with you that trading each of them seperately would make more sense.
Kessel has value. I'd even say a ton if salary is retained. At the very least he could get what Carter got last year.
OEL - Probably negative, but I don't think AZ sees it that way.
All fair points for sure. I somewhat disagree with them but that's just my opinion, I certainly can see both sides of each argument.
The one that i think is objective rather than subjective is the bruins heavily pursuing OEL in the past. If they had heavily pursued him, he would be a bruin. I just haven’t seen anything to indicate that they’re even interested.
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