Take Strome out and Chicago probably accepts

Strome isn't worth the first but Keith for Neal + pick works

Make the 5 a 7 or TB either trades Toronto the 7 for Hutchinson or signs a league minimum. Who sits behind Vasy is pretty much inconsequential considering Vasy plays 62 games at probably a .7 point% meaning 82-86 points when he's in net no time this century had 97 not made the playoffs , so they need 11-15 points out of the backup in 20 games most AHL goalies could do that behind TB.

Awful trade for the oilers.

Keith was one of the worst defenders in the league and his contract is buyout proof. Great career but the guy is washed

Wrong. Clearly you don't watch the games. Keith was paired with rookies and BoQ who struggled a lot defensively, people who didn't watch him and only are looking at stat sheets don't understand this. If you go into his advanced analytics, when he played with a decent partner like Murphy, he looked good still.

That said, he's not a 1st liner anymore despite the hawks forcing him into 24 minutes a night but he definitely is a good 18 to 20 minute player as a #4 or #5 and anyone saying he's washed up and isn't a NHL player is purely ignorant. His contract has 2 years left also, but the salary is only $1M a year. Hawks should retain some, but at half retained, Hawks shouldn't do this trade. Much rather keep Keith on the roster as a #4 or #5 then give him up for free.

Strome is definitely worth a couple 2nd round picks if not a late 1st. Moving Neal, who IS worthless, costs money and more then a 3rd rounder. This trade doesn't work. Strome for Neal = 1st and 3rd to the Hawks. Keith requires a 3rd or 4th at half retained. Bump up the 3rd to a 2nd and it's close.

a better deal would be

Receive

- J.Neal
- P.Broberg

Receive

- D.Keith
- D.Strome


There could be a late pick added from oilers but this would have legs as basis of a trade IMO.

Chicago is looking to add on D and need the cap to do that, Keith can’t be bought out, Neal can, Keith was the second worst defender in the league in xGF%, Chicago is better with him not on the ice lolol. Salary means nothing unless the owner is hurting for cash, which Edmonton is not. Every rookie Keith played with did better without him so what does that show? Based on performance alone, he has negative value lolol

1 year of Marleau @ 6.25 netted the #13 OA. 2 years of Neal @ 5.725 is going to cost more then the #19OA. Even if somehow the 19OA was enough to get someone to eat Neal, Keith is still a useful piece as is Strome which you are not getting that combo for a 3rd.

I like the idea, but no, Broberg has way more value to Edmonton in both future plans and optics to just toss him in like that.

Even if it were us to add a pick?

Possibly, but the Oil's front office saw something in Broberg that made them pass up Zegras for him. Whether they turn out to be right or wrong remains to be seen, but I think this is a case of optics. You can't just be seen to be giving up on the kid too soon, it makes you as an organization look foolish, and throws away what could turn out to be (with significant marinating) a great defenseman.

I think if they do decide long term to part with him, it will be something like the Strome-Schmaltz trade was. Two guys with great promise who aren't quite working out, get them a change of scenery. Hopefully for them, it doesn't become more of a Nylander/Jokiharju thing... *shudder*

Again, you don't watch the games so it's a bad assumption to look at a stats sheet and think you understand. There is a good reason Edmonton wants him on their second line as widely reported.

It’s widely reported Keith wants out and will be bought out of a trade can’t be found 😂

Kinda glad I didn’t watch Keith get outshot, outchanced, and outscored more than any other dman. Sorry you had to see that

It's freidman SUGGESTING a possible buyout and he's usually not all that accurate on ideas he is spitballing. Most reputable places are saying Keith retained for Caleb Jones and 3rd or 4th. Likely Neal + Jones + 2nd for Keith retained is my guess. Oilers are going to play him on their 2nd line behind nurse, they understand he has value otherwise he'd be on the 3rd line.

He should be on the third line

Don't try telling me that he was being dragged down by rookie partners. All three of Keith's most common defense partners had better CF% away from Keith than they did with him:

Murphy with Keith: 46.33% / without: 48.75%
Boqvist with Keith: 48.38% / without: 49.35%
Mitchell with Keith: 41.63% / without: 46.62%

Two of the 3 were appreciably better by xGF% without Keith, Boqvist was the same:

Murphy with Keith: 42.19% / without: 49.31%
Boqvist with Keith: 46.99% / without: 46.50%
Mitchell with Keith: 39.43% / without: 45.98%


Boqvist with Keith: 45.83 GF% in 220:46
Boqvist without Keith: 50.00 GF% in 393:15


A #4-#5 who carries a $5.5M cap hit is absolutely a cap dump despite the actual salary unless you're sending him to a team that has oodles of cap space and is very cost-conscious. Unfortunately for you there aren't any such teams in Western Canada.

Yup, he was 2nd pairing this year and didn't do well (actually 3rd pairing by normal-year QoC). Fewer, sheltered minutes is the only reasonable expectation for Keith... I can't imagine that he'll be better than Jones for the next 2 years, so why do a deal for him at all? I'd rather pay Jones $1M and spend the extra on upgrades elsewhere.

You can wax poetic with advanced stats until you are blue in the face, that's what fans like to do that don't watch the games. IF you watched the games, you would understand the advanced stats aren't that accurate. There is a reason why people who make a living playing, coaching or scouting hockey do not use advanced stats as a leading indicator of how good a player is; unlike fans, especially those addicted to playing fantasy hockey.

He's a strong #4 on most teams, but can't handle 24 minutes a night anymore. There was also a ton of covering up he was doing positionally for BoQ and Mitchell; stats won't reflect that. He's also on the ice against the strongest of the opposition in the toughest on ice positions. The advanced stats you showed don't extract that and further, it doesn't show how he was covering positionally for Mitchell and BoQ. When both players fell down the lineup, they didn't see the oppositions best lines.

Again, take advanced stats with a grain of salt. The eye test, if you know hockey well enough, is a much better measuring stick so watch every game before you come to such a hard conclusion on who a player is.

Corsi and goals aren't advanced stats!

The fact that you spend most of your time attacking my knowledge of the game shows just how weak your arguments are.


You're right, the stats DON'T show that Keith is on the ice against the strongest of the opposition OR in the toughest on-ice positions. Here's what the stats show:

TOI vs Elites
Murphy: 25.6%
Zadorov: 25.0%
Keith: 22.0%
Mitchell: 21.1%
de Haan: 21.0%

O-zone faceoff%
Boqvist: 62.07%
Keith: 50.85%
Kalynuk: 50.00%
Mitchell: 49.13%
de Haan: 47.49%
Murphy: 40.25%
Zadorov: 38.83%

So your "eye test" was wrong - Keith didn't play the hardest minutes (that went to the Zadorov-Murphy pairing) and he got the 2nd easiest zone starts of any Chicago defenseman.

Do you have any other false narratives you'd like me to dismantle?

That's because The Leaf's are dumb! doesn't mean the rest of the leagues GM's are that dumb. That move cost the Leaf's huge and everyone knows it except Leaf fans.
Keith is awful, he was great once, now, he's below replacement level. The Oilers are better off keeping Jones as he's a more effective defender right now.
Keith can't be bought out, Neal can be. It doesn't make sense for the Oilers to do Neal vs Keith unless Chicago eats Keith's cap. which should be at least Neal's buyout of 3 million.

How many games have you watched of the Blackhawks this past season?

Stat junkies like you, don't understand all the flaws in how stats are calculated. There are plenty of articles about them and also plenty of articles how players especially but even scouts and teams don't rely on them other then a secondary tool to the eye test. Anyone can digest stats till their blue in the face like you are doing, but there is a reason you don't work in the NHL.

So I'll ask again, how many blackhawks games did you watch this past season? That will give you an answer to how important your stats are.

And you do? Are you saying that you're a professional scout and that your "eye test" has more value than mine? You're a funny little man!

"Funny little man" resorting to name calling is simply a way of admitting defeat.

I've been around hockey my whole life at a very high level. If you know the game well enough, the systems the teams plays, what is asked of the players, you can trust your eyes.

I'm saying it is clear, you don't watch much of the blackhawks games and or your eye test fails you; it's either or both. As other Hawks fans on here know, I've been highly critical of some of his positioning the last couple years, but also know he is much better then advanced stats show based on covering for teammates a lot of the times. He's a solid #4 player and there is a reason the Oilers would want him on the 2nd line. Your stats suggest he shouldn't be in the NHL which shows you how flawed they are as clearly he should be playing.

@timmah007

LMAO look who's the the "funny little man" now! LMAO