You’re out of your mind paying Dougie $9x8

Not allowed to give Hamilton 8 years. He would have had to have been on the team at the trade deadline. Max term he can get from anyone except Carolina is 7 years.

Carolina would sign him for the agreed contract of another team and trade him

You wouldn't think this if you were a Flyers fan and saw what their defense was like this season lol. No doubt he probably isn't worth that, but he is also likely the only player available anywhere on the market who is that good of a RHD, and the Flyers would be wise to absolutely guarantee they get him

Could you give me like a rough estimate on how many defensemen are better than Dougie, league wide? and how many forwards? don't need to be exact, just a rough outlining

It is Philly...lol

Comparables for that contract are:

Spurgeon TChabot Ekbkad

Dougie much much better offensively than those 3

His xGA numbers are quite good overall too

What's the problem exactly

I'd say easily top-15 defenseman in the league, probably top-10. To be completely honest, depending on what advanced analytics you favor there is a dead-serious argument for him being top-5 with Fox Makar Josi and Hedman, although I think that is a bit of a stretch.

The problems are as follows;
I watch every game
Observe the glaring deficiencies in his defensive game
Think all the time about the great players who would leave Carolina over an eight year period if we paid Dougie $9M a season.
Can’t get over how I’d rather pay $8-9M a year to Seth Jones vs Dougie Hamilton.

Just a start

There are two defenseman better then he is on his own team

I think Fox, Josi, Spurgeon, McAvoy and I guess Weegar are the names that come close, in my mind, without getting into if they're better or worse than Dougie. So I'd comfortably conclude top 5 or 6 or whatever. But I think he's worth the money as well. I think if you wana spend in free agency, a 27 year old Hamilton with incredible consistency not only throughout the years, but throughout multiple coaches and team systems, is probably one of the best bets you can make. I'm asking because I think it'd be absurd to have Hamilton far out of your top 10, even evaluating under subject to some serious bias. And in my mind, $9m is kind of on the low end of what I'd give for him.

"glaring deficiencies"

*goes on to mention Seth Jones*

Are we on the actual same planet?

Seth Jones is a better defenseman than Dougie Hamilton. If that puts us on different planets then I suppose we are

You need to get your head out of your spreadsheets

Oh it's this joke again

You will never get anywhere ever in these discussions, because when I tell you my eyes see something else, you have nothing more to go off of. What's really good for my argument is that it's in no way subject to bias like your is. I don't need to apply mental gymnastics to why Dougie's defensive numbers are actually well above average - I can just watch a game with that assumption, and clearly see the things he's doing well without letting my mind fool me into a different narrative because of outliers or a preset idea. Or even more simply put, why was Carolina so bad before seriously investing into analytics and trading for Dougie, and so much better afterwards?

So is this trade Hamilton + 27OA for Patrick + 13OA?

That’s a very easy yes for the Canes.

I watch a ton of Dougie too

He & Car are two of my fav NHL things right now

Yeesh already with the "watching games" 🙄

It's a lazy argument that helps nothing

Equally important is acuity of visual appraisal

No question he's often pretty sketchy defensively

But those miscues just a part of his overall impact defensively, he makes a lot of reads and gambits that are exceptional, also driving play helps defense

do we fire Patrick into the sun after the trade. He doesnt fit with the Canes.

‘No way subject to bias’ - this is textbook.

I use analytics to see the overall picture and look for trends, then I confirm what those trends tell me with my eyes. An example, I think Slavin and Pesce are the best defenseman on the Canes, but the Analytics say otherwise. Anyone who studies the Canes and their players will tell you those two are the ones we can’t lose.

My eyes tell me that Dougie loses battles near the net, plays the puck instead of the body when he should be using his big frame to clear space. He chases players behind the net instead of holding his defensive position. He floats in the defensive zone instead of holding position, and this forces him out of position leaving the net open. He pinches down the boards in terrible situations giving up odd man rushes the other way. He cheats defensive position and takes stick infraction because of it. He shies away from contact in the corners, this is especially glaring in the playoffs when this is crucial to disrupting the offense and a won board battle can help break the puck out of the zone.

It’s fair to disagree here…I’m not arguing he’s going to get a big contract. My point is the team who pays him this big of a contract is going to regret it sooner rather than later. I just don’t want it to be the Canes.

The argument from me is at this level of contract - Dougie has to be the Norris level Dougie for 8 years. I don’t like the idea of that value

Giving up a first for someone's rights plus giving him an unrealistic contract is a fireable offence.

But what you're still missing here is that whatever he's doing is still mapping on to winning games. Regardless of what you think Dougie *should* be doing, what he *is* doing leads to more shots for him and fewer for his opponents. You've decided Hamitlon is poor defensively, and that's what you'll see now. Matt Grzlcyk made a big mistake in a big spot in the playoffs, so I assume people favoring classical hockey analysis will view him more harshly defensively over the next months or years of play. But what we then miss out on is Grzlcyk getting the puck out of his own zone more times than say Brendan Carlo, and ultimately defending better than him, by making sure the puck isn't continuously in his own zone.

Slavin is a good defensive defenseman. But the percentage he reduces incoming offense by is not that much larger than the percentage which he reduces his own teams offense by. I have to think you're overvaluing a slight improvement in defensive effect, or possibly that Slavin is a lot better in his own zone, but that Hamilton and even Pesce make sure to stay in the offensive zone a majority of the time. And before you say anything, this is of course isolated or *expected* numbers.
Pesce is a good two-way defenseman, and basically a lesser version of Dougie, because he manages to turn defense into offense, just not to the degree that Dougie does. And that's excluding the actual shot, which favors Dougie well over both Slavin and Pesce.

What bias am I subject to when looking at winning-corrolatory numbers?

And how does this even come close to the multitude of biases your eyes expose you to every minute of every game you watch?