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MelonVK

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Forum: NHL Signings5 août 2022 à 8 h 34
Forum: NHL Signings15 juill. 2022 à 16 h 7
Sujet: Ottawa Senators signed Joshua Norris (8 Years / $7,950,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>budgeteam</b></div><div>Sens are leveraging their cap space now to lock in his cap hit long term.

If escrow is paid back within 2 seasons, as expected. What will the cap be in the summer of 2025, and what sort of cap projections will they be expecting for the summer of 2026 and beyond?

The cap could have been as high as 88.5 million for the 20-21 season. That doesn't factor in increased HRR from the new US TV deal.

With that kind of raise, you're looking at a 6M player inflating to 7.5+, an 8M player inflating to 10M+, etc.

Norris gave the Senators nothing in terms of help or a discount, but it's still better strategically than the alternative of a bridge deal.</div></div>

If you read what I suggested it was only a 1-year-thing, but I also kind of disagree with the premise. Not because you are wrong in that contracts will grow on average, but because it will still take some time to asdjust to the new normal.

But I can be more clear as well - I believe this in an overpay. Even above 5 mil I'm starting to raise eyebrows regarding Norris.
Forum: NHL Signings12 juill. 2022 à 15 h 55
Sujet: Colorado Avalanche signed Valeri Nichushkin (8 Years / $6,125,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drewjenkins</b></div><div><strong>I agree 100% with everyone above.</strong>





<strong>2018-19</strong> | DAL | 57 games - 10 points = <strong>14</strong> point pace | Playoffs = <strong>00</strong> point pace
<strong>2019-20</strong> | COL | 65 games - 27 points = <strong>34</strong> point pace | Playoffs = <strong>16</strong> point pace
<strong>2020-21</strong> | COL | 55 games - 21 points = <strong>31</strong> point pace | Playoffs = <strong>24</strong> point pace
<strong>2021-22</strong> | COL | 62 games - 52 points = <strong>68</strong> point pace | Playoffs = <strong>62</strong> point pace

<strong>This is the literal definition of one good season (at least statistically).</strong>
And I agree that he's always been a solid forechecker and two-way player.
But none of his other seasons warrant anything near $6,100,000 x 8 years.
Without last season his offers would be about half the AAV and half the term.

<strong>Nichushkin is 100% capable of living up to this contract.</strong>
But saying it's not based on one season is complete blasphemy.
And saying it's not risky ignores his age + many outlier contract years.</div></div>

Please don't say "one strong year, at least statistically" as if there is one determining statistic for this. I would, of course, argue that point totals are a poor way of measuring not only impact, but more importantly for a guy like Val and his previous situation - potential impact. His ice-tilting numbers have always been among the best in the league; Colorado is just the first team to give him minutes and teammates to do that effectively and at a larger scale.

You could of course ask him to repeat this on a 2-year prove-it type deal or so, but then you're going to end up paying 8+ mil on a long-term cotnract when he successfully repeats the underlying numbers he's been pumping out for years. Nobody that tracks microstats or value any type of regression model is surprised at this development for Nichuskin.

The closest comparison in terms of this contract I believe is the one Marchand signed a few years back. Marchand is actually similar, cause he was played further down the lineup for seemingly no reason, and then exploded offensively when moved to the top line. I would say Nichuskin is better, less prone to suspension, and I beleive (cba checking) also slightly younger at the time of signing.

Oh and I'm a Bruins fan.