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MelonVK
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Forum:
NHL Signings
il y a 16 heures
Sujet:
Toronto Maple Leafs signed Timothy Liljegren (2 Years / $1,400,000 AAV)
Liljegren's numbers this seasons were those of a #3 at worst. I think this contract guarantees value over the next 2 years, but a sneaky alternative would have been 4 years at some 2.5-3.5 or even 6 years at 4m+.
Forum:
NHL Signings
21 mars à 19 h 14
Sujet:
Boston Bruins signed Jake DeBrusk (2 Years / $4,000,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sensonfire</b></div><div>Why would you reward a player that publicly stated he wanted to be traded ...
with a multi-million dollar extension??
Enlighten me.</div></div>
Why would you reward a player that publicly stated he wants to be traded...
With just letting him walk for free??
Enlighten me.
Forum:
NHL Signings
21 mars à 15 h 30
Sujet:
Boston Bruins signed Hampus Lindholm (8 Years / $6,500,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>I could argue that Holl doesn't play the PP and plays hard minutes against top minutes. But I'm not saying Holl is nearly as good a Lindholm, but for all the criticism Holl and most Leaf Dmen get on CF, they must be doing something right.</div></div>
Good job for making this about the Leafs..
Well, he's playing on a good team. The sum of all Leafs players is pretty much their standing position. All we can argue is what players contributed how much to it. If you suggest Holl has anything but a very, very, minor positive (if at all) impact, then that only removes from what Matthews or Nylander, or some actual good player I would attribute most of the success to, does
Forum:
NHL Trades
20 mars à 16 h 52
Sujet:
(LAK/DET) - 7th for Stecher
Stetcher was like a fine #4 by the numbers last time I looked. Considering the price paid for a 3.5 in Chiarot this is a steal. LA doing smart business as every contender should have made this trade for the depth and insurance they all need.
Forum:
NHL Signings
20 mars à 15 h 53
Sujet:
Boston Bruins signed Hampus Lindholm (8 Years / $6,500,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>I know I'm not making a good comparison because stats don't tell the picture. But...
Lindholm..In 60 games, 22 points, zero plus minus. Bruins paid to get him, and then a 28 year old gets a 6.5m X 8 contract
The worse Dman in the NHL according to CF followers, Justin Holl. 50 games, 14 points, 12 plus minus, 2m a year.
By the way there is pain for a buyout after six years. Two years of 3.6m and two years at 1.6m. total 9.8m</div></div>
I was on my way to say I don't understand, but I guess I do understand.
Here's the problem: Most people have no sound way of determining defensive ability.
Plus/minus can have the opposite effect. If you trust a player in defensive situations they will have lower plus/minus.
Hampus Lindholm heavily reduces the amount of shots taken at his goalie. That's how we know he's good defensively.
His point totals are actually fine considering the minutes he plays. His point totals should be relatively low considering he played for Anaheim and not Toronto.
Forum:
NHL Trades
20 mars à 10 h 50
Sujet:
(CGY/SEA) - 2nd, 3rd, 7th for Järnkrok
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KSIxSKULLS</b></div><div>So you're saying Chiarot is an average defender when it comes to defending. And Jarnkrok is an above average defender when it comes to forwards? That's great, but it's not comparing them because they play two different positions.</div></div>
No, I'm saying, as players and regardless of position, they have this impact on scoring.
Forum:
NHL Trades
20 mars à 6 h 35
Sujet:
(ANA/BOS) - Lindholm, Curran for Vaakanainen, Moore, 1st, 2nd, 2nd
A few opinions:
Lindholm can be a #2 on a contender while Chiarot shouldn’t be more than a #4 ideally.
Vaakanainen is 23 without looking like anything besides a bottom pairing D in the league. He’s perhaps not very deserving of the status he still seems to have.
This will have no positive effect if it’s Reilly he’s going to take a top 4 spot from. It’s Carlo that should be on the third pairing or traded.
A 1st and two 2nds still hurts and if you’re not trading for rentals I still think you should trade at the draft to maximize value.
Dumping Moore is great but he was also so incredibly predictably not the guy to sign. And then they repeat it with Forbort…
Keeping DeBrusk matters.
This seems fine to me.
No wait the Bruins still don’t have a 2C, why are they doing this? It’s so sad, cause when you’re thinking of last season and what’s different now, I don’t know how you ever conclude this is the missing piece.
Forum:
NHL Trades
20 mars à 6 h 17
Sujet:
(PHI/FLA) - Giroux, Bunnaman, Rubtsov, 5th for Tippett, 1st, 3rd
Well, Florida is a problem
Forum:
NHL Trades
20 mars à 6 h 14
Sujet:
(CGY/SEA) - 2nd, 3rd, 7th for Järnkrok
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KSIxSKULLS</b></div><div>Jarnkrok is good defensively because he stays on the blue line in the offensive zone or in front of the net in the defensive zone? You can't compare because a defenders game and a forward game are completely different</div></div>
I compare them by measuring their isolated impacts on the shots their team and opponents take with them on the ice.
Chiarot reduces both by a few percentage - making him average. Järnkrok reduces shot for the opposing team more than for his own - which makes him a little better.
Forum:
NHL Trades
18 mars à 21 h 0
Sujet:
(CGY/SEA) - 2nd, 3rd, 7th for Järnkrok
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KSIxSKULLS</b></div><div>Two different positions. They are expected to play the game in completely different ways. Suppose to be in different spots at all time.</div></div>
This is very nonsensical.
Or are you suggesting you can't differentiate between between McDavid and Kris Russel because they are playing different positions?
Of course one has to account for differences like usage and position. But we can do that.
I have Chiarot down as equally poor offensively as he is good defensively.
Järnkrok is better defensively than he is bad offensively.
There - comparison made.
Forum:
NHL Trades
18 mars à 19 h 22
Sujet:
(TBL/CHI) - 2x 1st, Katchouk, Raddysh for Hagel, 2x 4th
why
Like even if you're Tampa. You've run the numbers. Hagel is the best thing since sliced bread. You want the guy, sure, good.
*Nobody* else is in the market at this price. Infact you don't even know if there *is* a market for Hagel. Low ball an offer in January and double it up in February or whatever.
This just reeks of weird, misplaced desperation and an attempt to be Stevie Y with giving up first rounders for players you believe can put you over the edge.
Blake Coleman was different. Even Goodrow seemed better than this.
Again, why?
Forum:
NHL Trades
18 mars à 19 h 16
Sujet:
(FLA/MTL) - Smilanic, 1st, 4th for Chiarot
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KSIxSKULLS</b></div><div>But if the going value for a top 4 rental is a 1st round pick, then it's not overpaying because that's what they are worth.</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drambui</b></div><div>at some point looking at the deadline deals we are seeing, if we feel everyone is overpaying, its means maybe we dont have the right idea of the price on the market.</div></div>
You understand that you have built a tautology? No one overpaid cause thats literally the market price for every player at that specific time.
What I would hope to be getting at is that the value you're giving up far exceeds any potential benefit from the trade.
A first rounder at the draft got you Sam Reinhart. Schmidt a third. Dillon cost two seconds. Bean a second.
If I'm a GM then I'm just buying everyone at the draft and selling at the deadline I guess.
If you agree with this I guess we agree. But then we've constructed a statement largely built on seasonality. I think it's more constructive to talk strategy in terms of what GMs 'should' and 'should not' do. Buying at this price falls in the 'should not' category for me.
Forum:
NHL Trades
18 mars à 16 h 45
Sujet:
(FLA/MTL) - Smilanic, 1st, 4th for Chiarot
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KSIxSKULLS</b></div><div>That's the market, if everyone is "overpaying" then is anyone overpaying?</div></div>
Yes, cause then keeping the 1st around has more value
Forum:
NHL Signings
18 mars à 12 h 58
Sujet:
San Jose Sharks signed Tomas Hertl (8 Years / $8,137,500 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Vladislav_Agaev</b></div><div>interim gm joe will say he want shark to compete next year. i think other big move coming in summer to help team be playoff. rebuild not possible for 2 reason:
1) contracts too many big.
2) attendance. shark dont have comfort like chicago, philly, boston, pitt, new york etc to spend years rebuild. friedman say sharks skittish about rebuild cause once you lose fan in sj hard to get back. attendance is already lowest since 2003 and time is limited. cant take year and year to get top picks. shark must compete to stay relevant or fan move to something else. this business too not just hockey
3) hertl biggest player since thornton and pavelski. lose hertl-lose another thousand tickets maybe more. bad for shark business.
i think deal fair with money. maybe a year too long but shark need hertl more than anyone. eklund also already big in sj. timo too. 48-38-88-28-65-72 all new core. cant lose that core or lose all revenue. Logan not big favorite in shark fan. he never live up to pavelski</div></div>
I'm just thinking as an option - trade him for some up and coming star. You don't even have to involve picks, just trade him for an exciting, young name you can market instead. And just in some sense stop digging your own grave 3 years down the line. I believe Hertl will be a net positive at this money, but you can never use him meaningfully.
If ticket sales are tanking I think thats even more reason to pull a stop to this madness. Where will tickets be in 3 years? or 5? if you can't handle that, you need to sell while there's still something left to sell.
Forum:
NHL Trades
18 mars à 12 h 54
Sujet:
(CGY/SEA) - 2nd, 3rd, 7th for Järnkrok
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KSIxSKULLS</b></div><div>You can't compare a forward to a defender.</div></div>
Why not?
Forum:
NHL Trades
18 mars à 12 h 54
Sujet:
(FLA/MTL) - Smilanic, 1st, 4th for Chiarot
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KSIxSKULLS</b></div><div>I mean Colorado just gave up a 2nd for a meh #5. He's definitely worth a 1st as a rental</div></div>
Or...
Just maybe...
Colorado also overpaid?
Forum:
NHL Trades
18 mars à 6 h 35
Sujet:
(CGY/SEA) - 2nd, 3rd, 7th for Järnkrok
I see a few comoparisons to Chiarot and want to point out that:
1. Järnkrok is better
2. Järnkrok is cheaper
3. Järnkrok cost less than Chiarot
They're both okay players - Järnkrok is a solid option on like a defensive 3rd line you're playing vs tougher opponents. These guys are usually available for less, but at the same time they're also almost always undervalued.
Forum:
NHL Trades
18 mars à 6 h 33
Sujet:
(FLA/MTL) - Smilanic, 1st, 4th for Chiarot
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SevenLeg</b></div><div>People tried to deny it as much as they could, but Chiarot was definitely going to fetch a 1st.
It was a heck of a three years, Big Ben, the most polarizing defenseman in Habs recent memory. Eye-test people loved him, analytics people hated him. Truth is, you will be missed in Montréal.
Florida just became even more dangerous for the playoffs.</div></div>
"analytics hate him" - like no, he's an okay middle pairing defenseman. I just wouldn't pay a 1st rounder for that.
Forum:
NHL Signings
18 mars à 6 h 28
Sujet:
San Jose Sharks signed Tomas Hertl (8 Years / $8,137,500 AAV)
I believe Hertl top be like a top 15 or so C in the NHL. He's really good. We can round up to 9 mil for all I care.
But why are the Sharks doing this? What are they hoping to accomplish?
Edit: top 10C
Edit 2: I guess the problem is people don't recognize Hertl as one and they would be underpaid in any trade. At the same time - if you can't offload other players, your hand is kind of forced.
Forum:
NHL Trades
15 mars à 16 h 7
Sujet:
(COL/MIN) - Jost for Sturm
I think this is interesting because both profile well with advanced metrics. Jost has been played lower down the lineup with the Avs because they're so deep. Sturm has been playing down the Wild lineup cause they seemingly don't know he's good. Presumably Minnesota will give Jost a chance in the top 9 or 6. I just wonder why they didn't give Sturm more of a shake there. He's a classic ice-tiler, while Jost is mostly a positive defensively.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
20 févr. à 14 h 0
Sujet:
Hanifin Monahan
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Skyraider112</b></div><div>Haha what? Not sure which take is worse: Monahan not a good player or Grz better than Hanifin :tearsofjoy</div></div>
Yeah you really flipped my opinion with this brilliant post
Forum:
Armchair-GM
12 févr. à 19 h 18
Sujet:
Hanifin Monahan
Monahan isn't really a good player and Grzlcyk is better than Hanifin. This adresses a problem but doesn't solve it.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
27 janv. à 19 h 48
Sujet:
Instant contender
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Rob32sjsharks</b></div><div>God I hope you are!</div></div>
Just back here to let you know you can always trust the numbers :)
Forum:
Armchair-GM
27 janv. à 19 h 46
Sujet:
Instant contender
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Gofnut999</b></div><div>So dismantle the team for a 2nd line center. Trading a 40 point FW, a 35 pt FW they just signed, buyout another 40 pt FW and hold dead cap on him for 6 years and dismantle the team for a 50 pt FW. You think that’s sound business? Take out his one great year he has averaged just over .5 ppg.
I like Hertl, would be a good fit. Does not work though. If they were going this route it should have been done before free agency.</div></div>
Should've trusted the numbers guy, man...
Forum:
NHL Signings
12 janv. à 18 h 45
Sujet:
Boston Bruins signed Tuukka Rask (1 Year / $1,000,000 AAV)
My lungs just filled with a volume of air they haven't felt in a long time
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