I think Seattle will take Kassian. I believe 5.25M is way too much for a 3c, but Danault could be an option, if he wants to come. I personally rather trade Bear, and resign Barrie. This is a pretty good team!

I always appreciate reasonable responses, thanks. I could totally see Seattle going for Kass. I like Danault at 3C because it gives us insane depth. We can move him to 2C when we stack the top line. We really need a good 3C, and he could have a good defensive influence on Holloway. I don't know where else we'd spend the money, this plan already has $3.5mill in cap space. I like what Bear has to offer defensively, while Bouch can replace Barrie's offence, I do like what Barrie's done this season though. Barrie needs sheltered minutes, Tippett benched him in the final minutes of that Winnipeg game. Bouchard, Broberg, and somewhat Lagesson need sheltered minutes in the future, no room for Barrie imo

Good reasoning! I believe Barrie is amazing with Nurse. While Bear isn’t as good with him. Nurse has had his best year this year because he played with Barrie, and not Bear. I personally don’t like Bear, and I don’t see the huge hype for him. Would not be sad if Bear and Jones got traded. Danault is good, and would be awesome to have, but I believe he said he wants to be a 2c on a team. I believe another good option for 3c if Danault said no would be Haula.

Quite possible.

This is a terrible idea!

This runs contrary to the facts. Nurse-Bear has much better underlying numbers despite a deficit in zone starts and McDavid-time.

http://naturalstattrick.com/pairings.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&loc=B&toi=175&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=60

Nurse-Barrie have spent 63% of their TOI with McDavid and have produced 58.12 xGF% with him and 37.74% without.
Nurse-Bear have spent 51% of their TOI with McDavid and have produced 68.98 xGF% with him and 44.98% without.

http://naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=y&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2021-01-13&td=2021-05-08&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8478402&p2=8477498&p3=8475197&p4=0&p5=0

http://naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=y&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2021-01-13&td=2021-05-08&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8478402&p2=8477498&p3=8478451&p4=0&p5=0


There's no hype, just people looking at the results.


Danault is a very good defensive center, but doesn't produce enough offense to justify that sort of contract. A big part of his offense is due to playing with two very good wingers. Also, good luck playing Kassian on a shutdown line...

I only want to comment on that Danault playing with good wingers. Tatar and Gallagher were both 2nd liner caliber before playing with Danault. They were just thrown together and they ended up having good chemistry. Not one of these three players really carry the line.

You seem like a fan of advanced stats, I'm surprised you don't value them more dollar-wise. Danault has finished 6th and 7th in Selke voting the last 2 seasons, why doesn't he justify $5.25mill?. He's having a down year offensively this season and has been a bit unlucky (his linemates aren't carrying him at all). He's still maintaining elite defensive stats. We really need a productive, consistently positive goal differential, strong 3rd line. We have 2 4th lines currently, an awful bottom 6 on paper, one of the worst in the league. There's not exactly a reliable 3C option in free agency. There's still $3.5 mill left over after signing Danault here

I don't love Kassian on that 3rd line either but I don't see many options

You should try making an ACGM for a scenario where Neal stays on LTIR, the money needs to go somewhere

asdfa

Explain the Benson not signing. Is he going to retire???

I did sign him. 750k x 2 years. Similar to Jones 800k x 2 years last season

Edmonton cannot and will not spend 5.25 Million on a 3C.

RFAs if selected in the expansion draft do not have a choice where they sign as long as they are given a qualifying offer. If they dont want to sign they can go play in Finland or Russia.

There is no way Merzlikins signs an extension for 4.5x5. The going rate for good Goalies is 6x6 right now he wont accept anything under 5-5.5 million.

Benson will need an offer of around 990k or 15% higher than his current Salary.

Then Seattle takes Benson...

Oh yea I forgot about those qualifying offer rules. I used the CapFriendly qualifying offer calculator just now, the offer needs to be $874,125.

Wouldnt hurt my feelings to be honest.

I mentioned that possibility in my Seattle explanation. I don't see it happening because his RFA rights aren't worth anything. If Benson wants to sign with Seattle, maybe they consider him but I don't think that's likely. Wouldn't effect much anyways

Great chemistry, no doubt. But Tatar and Gallagher were established top-6 NHLers before playing with Danault, Danault was a bottom-6 guy before linking up with them. It might make sense for MTL to sign him to that contract but probably not for anyone else as they'll just be getting a 3C for that money.

Danault is excellent defensively, don't get me wrong. I would like him in an Oilers uniform for that reason, I think this team just needs a shutdown line to free up McDavid and Draisaitl from those duties at 5v5. But don't expect Danault to bring any offense with him though, as Gallagher and Tatar drive the offense on that line. Like this:

Past 2.5 years at 5v5
with BG + TT: 78.87 CF/60
w/o BG + TT: 52.32

with BG + TT: 41.64 SF/60
w/o BG + TT: 29.52

with BG + TT: 3.68 GF/60
w/o BG + TT: 2.06

with BG + TT: 3.23 xGF/60
w/o BG + TT: 2.03

with BG + TT: 16.35 HDCF/60
w/o BG + TT: 10.28

Again, I'd like to see Danault anchor a shutdown line in Edmonton. I'd just be leery of signing him for that much money as he's unlikely to cover that contract just due to lack of offense.

Fair enough, all of your points are valid. I was probably a bit off saying he isn't carried by his linemates lol. He does have the best +/- on Montreal though, which tells you something. I do think that he would really shine in a shutdown 3C role as you mentioned. What we need in a 3C is: solid faceoff skill, defensive capability, 30-40 points in an 82 game schedule, PK ability, and possibly someone who can drive a 2nd PP. IMO if we don't find a guy like that we're really missing an opportunity to give McD and Drai lighter minutes and possibly more offensive opportunities. Danault is the only UFA who fits the bill imo. Maybe's: Haula, Wennberg, Granlund, Lowry, Bonino. Who do you think would be the best fit. I don't think we are ready to rely on a prospect for that role yet

I don't have any analytics to back this up but I think it's also fair to assume Danault does pretty well offensively on the 3rd line. In MTL the opponent likely matches their best defensive line against Danault's. With EDM the other team would match their 3rd best line against his. Seems like something that would benefit his offence? I know $5.25mill is a lot but I think what he brings is extremely important and you have to consider that there are very few options. Better than taking a cheap, low risk flyer on another underperforming guy like Turris and having a mediocre 3C. It's pretty safe to assume we at least know what we're getting with Danault, even if we pay a premium

Another note: his 2 year deal makes sense for him so he can get a big pay day somewhere else if he plays well when his deal ends and the cap starts to rise. It makes sense for us because Holloway/McLeod will be ready for his job after 2 years, and we'll have money to extend them. It also times well with Bouch and Broberg needing bridge deals. It's a good way to spend the money we have available without getting even more top heavy. If you have a better idea for 3C though, I could be convinced

It’s not a terrible idea.... it’s a idea that is great from a person who isn’t a huge fan of Bear.

Kassian can play with Danault, but that doesn’t matter as I believe he is getting picked by Seattle. There is a huge hype of Bear. I personally don’t like him, so I would like to move on from him.

FTFY

It's a terrible idea.

Oh nice! Good job editing my comment, because we don’t agree. It’s a decent idea.

No, it's a terrible idea. Anyone who understands aging curves knows that it's a terrible idea to trade a 23-year-old 1st pairing defenseman in order to make room for a 30-year-old 2nd pairing defenseman. Not to mention their contract differences, $2M for Bear and probably $6M for Barrie.

Everyone should know that Bear isn’t a first pairing defence man. He may of played first pair before, but he’s not good enough. I rather pay the extra for Barrie! He’s better than Bear is. I’m not a big Bear fan, so I wouldn’t be sad if he was the one to go, and it may be that way if he can get both Barrie, and Larsson under an extension.