Adding Another to the Plethora of Marner Trade Proposals Today

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Créé par: CheechYou

Équipe: 2020-21 Maple Leafs de Toronto

Date de création initiale: 3 déc. 2020

Publié: 4 déc. 2020

Mode - plafond salarial: Basique

Description

Kane/Marner goal comparisons over the last 3 seasons:

Kane:
2019-20: 26 goals
2018-19: 30 goals
2017-18: 29 goals

Marner:
2019-20: 16 goals
2018-19: 26 goals
2017-18: 22 goals

Obviously it's not just goal totals -- Kane's primarily a goal-scorer and Marner's primarily a playmaker and had far more points in each of the 3 seasons than Kane, and Marner is no question overall the better player. I'm going to refrain from a common assumption I see soooo many after a statement JUST because the player is young: "and he's only getting better!!!" NOT NECESSARILY. Look at Johnny Gaudreau. Look at Jeff Skinner. I'm not saying those players are now bad players, or Marner's play will fall off to the degree that those players' did. I wouldn't be trading for Marner as a Sharks fan in this proposal if I seriously thought he'd be at risk of doing that.

BUT.

I don't know if Marner will be worth the ~11mil per year player he's making... 2018-19 he was worth every penny, but last year... and I'm nitpicking here... he seems to be worth around 9-9.5mil a year.

PLEASE UNDERSTAND MY ARUGMENT: this wouldn't be a big deal or that big a risk to hold onto and see how his play goes in the coming years and just hold onto him.

BUT.

That's a problem for the Leafs who already have two other players making over 11mil a year. A team in the salary cap era can deal with 2 of those at most and have enough depth to consistently contend for cups.

Getting Kane and Labanc for the price of Marner here spreads out the depth to a bonafide top-line player in Kane and an arguably top-line player in Labanc, who's an absolute playmaking wizard (like Marner is too) on the power play... who... and if we're playing the Marner game of only getting better with age as I see so many fans make... would also then be getting better with age.

Anyways, that's the argument. Obviously there's rebuttals to it (from SJ's perspective too to not do this). But just putting the proposal out here to think of how a roster would look like for both teams with this deal.

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FORMATION

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INTÉGRÉ

TEXTE INTÉGRÉ

TAILLE DE LA FORMATION	PLAFOND SALARIAL	CAP HIT	EXCÉDENTS	BONIS	ESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
22	81 500 000 $	80 940 908 $	0 $	0 $	559 092 $

Formation

Ailier gauche	Centre	Ailier droit
Kane, Evander 6 300 000 $6 300 000 $ AG, AD M-NTC UFA - 5	Matthews, Auston 11 640 250 $11 640 250 $ C UFA - 4	Labanc, Kevin 4 725 000 $4 725 000 $ AD, AG UFA - 4
Hyman, Zach 2 250 000 $2 250 000 $ AD, AG M-NTC UFA - 1	Tavares, John 11 000 000 $11 000 000 $ C, AG NMC UFA - 5	Nylander, William 6 962 366 $6 962 366 $ AD UFA - 4
Mikheyev, Ilya 1 645 000 $1 645 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 2	Kerfoot, Alexander 3 500 000 $3 500 000 $ AG, C, AD UFA - 3	Simmonds, Wayne 1 500 000 $1 500 000 $ AD, AG NTC UFA - 1
Vesey, Jimmy 900 000 $900 000 $ AD, AG UFA - 1		Spezza, Jason 700 000 $700 000 $ C, AD UFA - 1
	Thornton, Joe 700 000 $700 000 $ C, AG NMC UFA - 1

Défenseur gaucher	Défenseur droitier	Gardien de but
Rielly, Morgan 5 000 000 $5 000 000 $ DG M-NTC UFA - 2	Brodie, TJ 5 000 000 $5 000 000 $ DG/DD NMC UFA - 4	Andersen, Frederik 5 000 000 $5 000 000 $ G M-NTC UFA - 1
Muzzin, Jake 5 625 000 $5 625 000 $ DG NMC UFA - 4	Holl, Justin 2 000 000 $2 000 000 $ DD M-NTC UFA - 3	Campbell, Jack 1 650 000 $1 650 000 $ G UFA - 2
Sandin, Rasmus 894 167 $894 167 $ DG UFA - 2	Bogosian, Zach 1 000 000 $1 000 000 $ DD NTC UFA - 1

Laissés de côté	Liste des blessés (IR)	Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
Boyd, Travis 700 000 $700 000 $ C, AD UFA - 1
Dermott, Travis 874 125 $874 125 $ DG/DD UFA - 1

Unités spéciales

Avantage numérique 1
Matthews, A.		Tavares, J.		Labanc, K.
	Rielly, M.		Nylander, W.

Avantage numérique 2
Kane, E.		Kerfoot, A.		Simmonds, W.
	Mikheyev, I.		Brodie, T.

Infériorité numérique 1
	Kerfoot, A.	Hyman, Z.
	Muzzin, J.	Holl, J.

Infériorité numérique 2
	Kane, E.	Spezza, J.
	Brodie, T.	Bogosian, Z.

4 déc. 2020 à 0 h 21

mhockey91

Rejoint: juin 2015

Messages: 15,921

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Dude cmon, I’m not a marner fan and think leafs fans overrate him so much, but this ain’t gonna cut it

4 déc. 2020 à 0 h 26

CheechYou

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Quoting: mhockey91

Dude cmon, I’m not a marner fan and think leafs fans overrate him so much, but this ain’t gonna cut it

I think this proposal, with the 10% Kane retention, is almost fair value for the Leafs but ultimately it's not enough value-wise. TOR should (but won't) trade Marner not bc he's bad or will be bad, but to free up some cap space and spread depth throughout the roster and this could be a good enough return even if it's not 100% fair value. There's not many options for a RW replacement between 7-9mil who brings what Marner brings where the team who has that player would trade him for Marner.

4 déc. 2020 à 0 h 28

mhockey91

Rejoint: juin 2015

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Quoting: CheechYou

I think this proposal, with the 10% Kane retention, is almost fair value for the Leafs but ultimately it's not enough value-wise. TOR should (but won't) trade Marner not bc he's bad or will be bad, but to free up some cap space and spread depth throughout the roster. There's not many options for a RW replacement between 7-9mil who brings what Marner brings where the team who has that player would trade him for Marner.

If Toronto would trade marner it would be for RHD which this trade doesn’t accomplish. The gap in age between Kane and marner is too big for Kane to be the biggest piece in a return.
Swap Kane with Miere to get the conversation started

4 déc. 2020 à 0 h 31

CheechYou

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Modifié 4 déc. 2020 à 0 h 36

Quoting: mhockey91

A Meier/Labanc deal doesn't get the conversation started -- it's a definite 100% yes for the Leafs. Sharks consider it but ultimately decline bc that's 2 young top-line players for 1 who's probably ~2mil overpaid which doesn't make sense. Again, that wouldn't be a problem if the top-line player is making 7mil but is worth a little less %wise like 5.75mil. But 11mil is a lot different, even if he's still worth 9-9.5mil. It's the cap issue.

4 déc. 2020 à 0 h 34

chungus

Rejoint: août 2020

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only 20ish goals but you forget the only player with more primary assists over the last two years than him is mcdavid lol

marner was scoring at a 98 point pace after keefe took over in november, a 92 point pace if you include the 23 babcock games where he sprained his ankle etc.

marner just turned 23, he could win the art ross one day lol, his ceiling is hilariously high. Imagine how he plays when he's like 28-29?

having marner at 10.893 means that we generate so much offense that it doesn't matter really who's on the bottom 2 lines. he saves us money lol

he turned matthews into a 50-60 goal scorer, tavares had a career year with him, kadri only ever scored over 20 goals playing with marner, hyman's numbers took a HUGE jump playing with him

he elevates everybody around him, and paired with an elite centre it's absolutely lethal. not giving that up for anything

PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood a aimé ceci.

4 déc. 2020 à 0 h 36

Byrr

Rejoint: juill. 2019

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You could convince me of this if it wasn't for the LeBanc contract. 4.725 mil aav for a 40-50 point scorer with term. Thats a deal that can go very badly very quickly. He got paid a premium in San Jose for taking that 1 year 1 mil aav deal to make their cap work last season, I wouldn't be thrilled about eating that for San Jose.

chungus a aimé ceci.

4 déc. 2020 à 0 h 38

AlwaysBeleaf1919

Rejoint: avr. 2020

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Aside from the ages and potential, Marner may not be the better goal scorer, but why do we need another top-six goal scorer? We have JT and Matthews who are elite goalscores (as well as Nylander who was on pace for 40 and Hyman who was on pace for 30+). Marner is important because his vision allows these guys to score. Kane wouldn't do that.

Also, this doesn't really help us moneywise or fill any major needs.

chungus a aimé ceci.

4 déc. 2020 à 0 h 42

CheechYou

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Quoting: Lyle_Bubas

having marner at 10.893 means that we generate so much offense that it doesn't matter really who's on the bottom 2 lines. he saves us money lol

he turned matthews into a 50-60 goal scorer, tavares had a career year with him, kadri only ever scored over 20 goals playing with marner, hyman's numbers took a HUGE jump playing with him

he elevates everybody around him, and paired with an elite centre it's absolutely lethal

I'm as high on Marner as you are -- trust me on that. What I'm skeptical of is 2 things:

1) it does matter who's on the other two lines when it comes to winning a stanley cup. There's usually at least 2-3 teams who are super deep and if you're lucky or on talent alone (ala EK65 with the Sens a few yrs back), top players with no depth behind them can will a team far with a small chance of even winning it all. But it's a lot more consistent to try and have maybe 2 11mil+ contracts instead of 3 and deepen the team instead. Which brings me to

2) I think Matthews/JT91/Kadri are all tremendous players in their own right and it's a huge added bonus of having Marner with them, but I don't think the drop-off of playing with Marner vs. playing without him is big enough to say he's turning this guy into this, this guy into that.

4 déc. 2020 à 0 h 43

CheechYou

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Quoting: AlwaysBeleaf1919

Labanc's got tremendous offensive vision too and is getting better. Marner's sooo far and away the better defensive player but the offensive vision even if Marner's better in that department is actually pretty close and closer than you'd think (stats back that up).

4 déc. 2020 à 0 h 49

#10

mhockey91

Rejoint: juin 2015

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Quoting: Lyle_Bubas

Disagree with a lot of this. I think Tavares makes marner look really good. Tavares was scoring goals before marner came into the league. Marner got 69 points before Tavares came. Exploded the year after. I get he was a year older, but I think without Tavares, Marner’s stats wouldn’t be as good.

Leafs still say no to this trade though

chungus a aimé ceci.

4 déc. 2020 à 0 h 50

#11

chungus

Rejoint: août 2020

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Quoting: CheechYou

well, in kadri's case, he has yet to hit anywhere near 30 goals when playing without marner on his line. he was injured this year, so he maybe would've had low 20s, but still not anywhere near 32

Tavares, trust me, if you watch the highlights, he's good for 35ish goals, being point per game, but holy hell marner let him cake walk to nearly 50. This year playing without marner he was on pace for about 34 (albeit injured)

the other two lines matter, but not necessarily for scoring. Tampa had relatively little scoring from their bottom 6, yet it was their defensive play and general sandpaper qualities that made them valuable. the problem imo with the leaf's bottom 6 was "wow, all 4 lines can score!" and then come playoff time kappy/johnsson/kerfoot/clifford/engvall etc. vanish. Signing role players (i.e. a pat maroon) who never scores but is a leader and a grinder who plays great hockey is the key to winning

usually you want all 4 lines to score (i.e. STL and DAL), but imo in top heavy cases like pittsburgh, tampa, and the leafs, it's more of a bonus if your bottom lines score, provided they do all the other things right like lead, play good defense, shut the game down etc. (which the leaf's previous bottom 6s failed at miserably)

DartGuy86 a aimé ceci.

4 déc. 2020 à 0 h 51

#12

mhockey91

Rejoint: juin 2015

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Quoting: CheechYou

Idk if I’d consider LaBanc “top line”. Can he play there? Sure. But players like him come a dime a dozen. He’s a good player don’t get me wrong, but I’d still rather have marner over both Lebanc and Miere

4 déc. 2020 à 0 h 52

#13

chungus

Rejoint: août 2020

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Quoting: mhockey91

imo they feed eachother. tavares is a beast in his own right ofc, but if you watch the highlights, marner literally set up JT for so many tap ins. Yet JT also had some wicked plays as well. That's the benefit of having a star centre and a star winger, they feed off eachother

even in a down year, marner with 5-10 less gp than all those above him was 9th in primary assists

4 déc. 2020 à 0 h 53

#14

Hidalgo

Rejoint: avr. 2019

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Kane even slightly retained is just as overpaid as Marner is, if not more. I like Labanc, but it makes no sense to trade Marner in this case

4 déc. 2020 à 0 h 59

#15

justaBoss

What in tarnation

Rejoint: oct. 2017

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The package going TOR's way cost them about as much as Marner does, and Marner alone scored almost in the same rate than these two combined.

It's an easy no for them. Quality > Quantity.

Marner, while overpaid, brings them also something that doesn't show in the points, namely his ability of killing penalties. For an offensive playmaker he's also somewhat talented defensively as well.

You picked Gaudreau as an example of falling of a cliff so to speak. Frankly if I were CGY, I wouldn't trade Gaudreau for those two either. We're talking about players whose ceiling is much, much higher than anything you've provided here.

At the state where the Leafs are at the moment, the only sensible course of action is moving Marner for a top pair defenseman of close to similar age. Something the Sharks does not have at the moment.

4 déc. 2020 à 3 h 13

#16

CheechYou

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Quoting: justaBoss

Marner, while overpaid, brings them also something that doesn't show in the points, namely his ability of killing penalties. For an offensive playmaker he's also somewhat talented defensively as well.

Again, I don't disagree with the notion that Marner is far and away the better player than both of them and, in a nutshell, better than both Kane+Labanc combined in terms of high impact + contribution to a team.

Where I think this trade makes some sense for TOR is bc it's not in a nutshell -- they have 2 other 11+mil players in addition to Marner who's also being paid basically 11mil/yr. But Kane+Labanc replacing Marner spreads out the depth and, this is my 2nd point, their production isn't far off from being fair value to Marner even if it's not 100% fair value.

You mentioned Marner's exceptional ability to kill penalties. True. But statistically, though obviously Marner is much better on the PK for example and is known for that and I'm not questioning any of that, Kane is actually one of the league's top PKers. You can say a lot of that is from SJ's #1 PK system but it's there nonetheless. And Labanc is up there with Marner in the same spot on the top unit for the PP. It's a closer trade proposal considering all these factors than what you'd think at first glance.

4 déc. 2020 à 4 h 6

#17

justaBoss

What in tarnation

Rejoint: oct. 2017

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Quoting: CheechYou

Nah if you ask me it's not really that close. Marner brings alone to the table pretty much the same Kane and Labanc does. I'd absolutely rather have one elite asset over two mid level overpaid ones.

Take it this way, statistically during the regular season Rickard Rakell and Sam Steel scored pretty much in the same rate than Brayden Point, and cost wise these two are pretty close. They also play somewhat similar roles compared to what Kane and Labanc do in comparison to Marner. But not in a million years would TB trade Point for these two.

4 déc. 2020 à 8 h 28

#18

lilmike2905

Rejoint: nov. 2020

Messages: 201

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guy puts goals with kane and Marner but wheres assists??

chungus a aimé ceci.

4 déc. 2020 à 8 h 39

#19

Ritzy

Leafs Sufferer

Rejoint: juill. 2019

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Quoting: CheechYou

I get where you're coming from, and in most cases I would agree with you. Spreading out your depth is a logical thing to do.

In this case, Marner is the better option. He has all the skills that have already been mentioned and is only going to get better. I have no problem filling roster spots with cheap/veteran depth for the next 5 years. Those types of players will always be available.

4 déc. 2020 à 8 h 52

#20

JaredOfLondon

Rejoint: mai 2019

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noooooope

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