Yes. The leafs have a backup goalie, a good one, for a lower cap hit than Bernier, and we don’t want him back to let in goals from centre ice.

So the leafs trade a good starter for a bad backup and detroit turns around and flips him for significantly more?
No poor logic there

A bad backup that posts .907 on a historically bad team? You also failed to mention the retention which would drive up the cost of Andersen. Not that I agree that Toronto should do this but your post lacks a ton of information so it fits your narrative.

907 is bad even as a backup on a bad team. Hes bad. And the retention is meaningless when your downgrading so hard

Again, you’re missing or ignoring several points to fit your narrative. Detroit wasn’t just bad but the worse team in the history of the salary cap era. Hronek was our only capable top 4 defensemen as DDK was injured. After our first line we have guys like Flippula, Nielsen, Helm, etc on the second line so yeah the other team are going to have a field day hence our goal differential. If you don’t understand that then I’m just talking to a wall.

Edit - just add some quantitative data if you filter last year based on minimum of 15 games played to get starters + backups he’s #34 based on SV %.

Are we surprised that anyone evaluating this ACGM is ignoring the nuances to these trades?

TOR Receives: $2M in cap relief, and an NHL capable goalie, albeit what would appear to be a downgrade.

CAR Receives: $900k in cap relief, a 3rd round pick, and what appears to be an upgrade in goal.

DET Receives: An NHL capable goalie that is most likely a lateral move from Bernier, and a LD prospect with top 4 potential, all while taking on cap to help relieve cap impacts of two playoff contenders.

This trade might not work perfectly in terms of value, but the logic behind it would seemingly make sense to even the average CF user.

Except it does nothing for the leafs. They trade their starter for Bernier (we’ve gone through this before) who is a backup. They don’t need the cap relief, all this trade does is Toronto downgrades in goal.

Except you're missing one huuuge point about sv%. It is not tied to how good or bad the team in front of a goalie is. A goalie will stop the same percentage of shots behind a good or bad team, there have been several studies that have shown this.
Bernier would be bad on the best team in the league because he's a bad goalie.

Quality of shot definitely will effect SV%. Defense will also play a huge role in reducing quality of shots so I’d love to read one of these studies you reference. Anyone that watches hockey will know if you go to the dirty areas you have an exponentially better chance at scoring vs doing a clapper at the blue line.

Like I mentioned you said he was a bad backup so since there’s 31 teams * 2 we get 62 goalies in total and he ranks 34th which is a bad starter or a good/great backup just using basic rationale. Factor in the defense in front of him and he’s okay (I’m not claiming he’s an elite goalie by any stretch).

except that you cant just point at save percentage and determine shot quality. You are just ignoring that people have looked into this and there is zero evidence that a bad team makes their goalies worse.
The only connection found is that bad teams generally just have bad goalies. And Bernier was a part of why Detroit was so bad, not the other way around.

and if you want to talk backups, then you cant just filter a list by sv% because backup goalies play significantly weaker opposition and pretending their numbers mean anything compares to guys who are playing 200% more than they are is meaningless.
Bernier is bad, he's been bad for a while now and if he's a "good/great backup, then why would the leafs need him when they have Dell who is already a "good/great" backup and Campbell who is apparently elite.

Andersen's GAA wasn't much better than Bernier's GAA. Bernier had a better SV% and he played on a team that gave up 43 more goals than Toronto.

I'd think you might want to compare Bernier's GAA and SV% to Anderson's. Last season they had very similar numbers.

You do know Anderson posted a 909 sv% last year right? that's only an extra 2 saves out of 1,000 shots. about 3 goals a year. (assuming they start 50 games).



You do know Bernier was the starter in Detroit last year, correct? He started the majority of games for the Wings.

Still waiting for a source to your original claim about how defenses don’t effect goalie performance.

Bernier played the most games (46) for us last year followed by Howard (27). So no Detroit didn’t shelter Bernier and should’ve played him more as he posted significantly better numbers than Howard (.882). I also never claimed SV% = quality of shot but rather added some quantitative data instead of pure speculation which you’re doing. If you’re really into analytics then you’d also know that quality of shot data varies by arena and isn’t an exact size which skews results (for good or bad).

You completely skipped my point of we don’t have quality skaters outside of top line and Hronek last year but at least you’re consistent in cherry picking.

yeah, it's almost like Andersen had the worst year of his career and he was still better than Bernier who is a bad backup who was playing way more than he should have

you havent provided any information on why Bernier's numbers were good other than ranking save percentage where he was terrible. Just because he was better than Howard doesnt mean anything other than he was better than one of the worst goalies in the league last year. And I said Bernier is a bad backup, that doesnt change because he played more games this year.
you want a link though? here ya go, 2 seconds of googling, you're welcome
https://hockey-graphs.com/2015/04/06/hockey-talk-on-player-control-over-save-percentage/
or this one
https://hockey-graphs.com/2014/07/07/defensemen-still-have-no-sustainable-control-over-save-percentage/
oh, and here's a third
https://www.tsn.ca/defencemen-and-their-impact-on-team-save-percentage-1.567469
Im sure if you wanted you can find more
Oh, and im not cherry picking by not mentioning the players, they just dont matter. The Leafs had a horrific defence last year but you dont see me using that as an excuse for Andersen's bad season.

Yeah, it's almost like your ego won't let you admit you're wrong...

ah yes, my ego. that totally has something to do with this and isnt you projecting because you cant let go of someone calling a bad goalie a bad goalie

Thank you for stepping up and proving my point.

sure thing bahd, that's why im the only one here who has provided literally any information backing up their point. you should read up the thread a little and get some education in.

I’ve at least provided quantitative data you don’t agree which is fine. You fail again to grasp why I ranked SV% in relation to a bell curve and giving you the total population to debunk your statement. 34th would be the very top/climax of a bell curve or almost dead average.

All of the articles you provided have been widely criticized/debunked which is why analysts came up with GSAx utilizing shots above replacement which accounts for shot difficulty in SV%. You can use SV% for a general idea but shot quality and defensemen level (eg clearing crease, stopping centering passes) and defensive systems cater to certain goalies. So back to your posts no Bernier wasn’t sheltered and his GSAx is average not terrible like you claim. You’re just salty for some odd reason like Bernier peed in your cereal or slept with your mom.

Anderson had a down year. Leafs already had bernier and he couldn’t beat our reimer for the starter role. Carey price also had the same so percentage as Anderson last season btw do you think mtl would trade him for bernier? Like I don’t understand your point, do you think bernier is a starter on a contending team or even better than Anderson because if he’s not leafs have no interest.

lol, i love it "give me evidence!" "no your evidence is bad, its been debunked, i will give no evidence to support that it has been debunked though"
Bernier sucks, the leafs dont want him, if you love him so much you can keep him in detroit.

This is pretty self explanatory “All of the articles you provided have been widely criticized/debunked which is why analysts came up with GSAx utilizing shots above replacement which accounts for shot difficulty in SV%.” I also never claimed you guys should want him but rather he isn’t an ECHL level goalie like you keep trying to make him out. I even mentioned that I don’t think you should do it (see post #3)...

except that they didnt come up with GSAX because of those articles to "debunk" them, they created GSAx in an attempt to find more data on goaltending as a whole. And GSAx still does not do anything to confirm that players have any significant impact on goalies performance. If anything it shows that the quality of competition the goalie is facing is the most important thing.
GSAx is a single tool in evaluating goaltenders.

And when did i say Bernier was an ECHL goalie? I said he was a bad backup, as in there are 15ish guys who are either tandum or backups that i would have ahead of him. You're the one going to the hilt defending a guy who isnt good.