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BStinson
Membre depuis
21 mai 2020
Équipe préférée
Red Wings de Detroit
Deuxième équipe préférée
Golden Knights de Vegas
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2495
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MENTIONS "J'AIME"
ÉQUIPES VIA FAUTEUIL-DG
Forum:
Armchair-GM
il y a 2 heures
Sujet:
A goalie to Colorado
For Bernier I’d ask for a second rounder with a fourth going back. We don’t really have a capable backup and a good goalie helps our guys confidence and boy do they need it. It’s also worth noting that our fourth will be early and your second will be late so it’s moving down a little more than one round.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
il y a 3 heures
Sujet:
Helping Detroit With An Expansion Issue While Adding Rentals
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Old_Snowman</b></div><div>You're overthinking this a lot.
Detroit Protects the Following.
Forwards: Larkin, Mantha, Bertuzzi, Fabbri, Rasmussen, Namestkinov, Smith.
Defense: Hronek, Lindstrom, Stecher
Goal: Greiss
I take Lindstrom over Cholowski. He can at least play Defense and has some edge. Cholowski gets all his points on the PP and can't do much 5v5 and is atrocious in his own zone. Seattle can have him if they want. Stecher over Dekeyser. Seattle unlikely to take DD anyway as he's 30+ and overpaid.</div></div>
This is the exact protection I have in the ACGM I’m creating at the moment. Some will scoff at Lindstrom but he is a perfect cost controlled third pairing defensive D. Same goes with Smith but fourth liner instead and soon to be fan favorite.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
il y a 6 heures
Sujet:
Most overpaid Players
Vlasic & Nielsen come to mind.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
il y a 6 heures
Sujet:
Sharks PT 2
Detroit should hold onto any young top 4 D and continue to add to it. Wingers just don’t have the same value or need for this team considering we have Mantha, Bertuzzi, Fabbri, Raymond, Zadina, and Berggren making the team in the next two years. Who do we have for top 4 D or top 6 centers? Merkley isn’t very intriguing to me as he can’t play defense to save his life.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
il y a 10 heures
Sujet:
Firesale and Skinner cap dump
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Shibbal18</b></div><div>Theirs no narrative to spin, hes top 20 in xGF% for players that average more than 11 and a half minutes a game</div></div>
Absolutely you’re spinning a narrative by putting words in people’s mouths. Stats with no context mean almost nothing. For instance, top 5 teams in xGF for an entire season finished 2, 23, 20, 14, and 3rd in GF. It’s important to note, when using predictive models context is important and shot selection is a guesstimate until the puck technology is used.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
il y a 11 heures
Sujet:
Firesale and Skinner cap dump
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Shibbal18</b></div><div>My evidence was that you look at base stats and judge from there, which youve admitted.</div></div>
I never once admitted anything but I was a Detroit fan. A coworker of mine is a die hard Sabres/Bills fan so I try and watch them so we can talk over lunch but I don’t watch 100% of their games, so yeah you keep trying to spin that narrative with nothing backing it. :hushed
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lsendel3</b></div><div>I generally don’t speak for anyone but myself. Skinner is playing well, but playing with guys who are on their last contract in the NHL and has been for two seasons now. I’m not generally a fancy stats guy, but they do say what my eyes are telling me. He’s playing well, but extremely snake bitten. Whether that be unlucky, the quality of line mates, or most likely a combo, I think he’ll bounce back. Me responding, and I think the others as well, are saying why would we gut the future for an overpaid, but still probably productive player once the unluckiness stops. That’s all. I didn’t see anyone saying that we should try to trade him for less, or any real disagreement.</div></div>
Some are saying what you’re saying and others aren’t, which makes sense that opinions differ. Yeah, playing Sheahan + Lazar isn’t ideal by any stretch nor is his ~2 min PP for a 9M player.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
il y a 12 heures
Sujet:
Firesale and Skinner cap dump
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lsendel3</b></div><div>Agreed but like I just said, at this point what are we supposed to do? **** and moan about a bad contract from a former GM that was clearly in over his head? Or hope skinner returns to at least a top line forward if played with decent talent. He’s currently playing with two guys that were waived last year and this in Sheahan and Lazar..</div></div>
I commented initially on OP’s value and then further commented towards Sabres fans trying to debunk my initial statement because their only evidence is that I’m a Detroit fan. You don’t want to trade Skinner because it would cost too much, I get that but that’s not the first couple posts from Sabres fan and if it was initially addressed like so I’d probably not even comment in this ACGM. Hopefully he turns it around for you guys and doesn’t have any more concussion issues and as you know no one is touching that contract currently.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
il y a 12 heures
Sujet:
Firesale and Skinner cap dump
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lsendel3</b></div><div>He was on a 20 goal pace playing injured most of the year with Marcus Johansson and vlad sobotka... I mean, put him next to Eichel and he’s getting 30 pace again easy. Should a 9M guy need Eichel? No, but he needs competent players with him at least.</div></div>
If you’re paying someone 9M they should be able to drive and create their own offense. Is he a top 6 winger, yeah. Is he a 9M winger, hell no.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
il y a 12 heures
Sujet:
Firesale and Skinner cap dump
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Shibbal18</b></div><div>Simple
wojme: Sabre fan who watches the team and knows how theyre playing
Shibbal18: Sabre fan who watches the team and knows how theyre playing
Old_Snowman: Detroit fan who doesnt watch Sabres and looks at basic stat lines to judge how hes playing
BStinson: Detroit fan who doesnt watch Sabres and looks at basic stat lines to judge how hes playing</div></div>
Love to see how you can sell a Skinner @9M x 7 years, doesn’t matter what team I cheer for. That contract blows saying otherwise is what we call a “homer”. He’s the 25th highest paid player in the league haha.... Never sniffed PPG and isn’t elite defensively or a center/defensemen so please educate us normal folk.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
il y a 13 heures
Sujet:
Firesale and Skinner cap dump
9M for 7 more years, don’t think anyone is touching that contract. Eventually Detroit will want to compete and that cap will be crucial.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
il y a 15 heures
Sujet:
My View on Dunn
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_K</b></div><div>Most shifts are on the fly, I've seen smarter people than me argue that zone starts have virtually no impact on results and effectiveness (https://hockeyviz.com/txt/shifts2). And besides a team with Pietrangelo and Parayko would be expected to use them against tougher competition and let the less experienced, offensive d-man beat up on easier competition. A lot of usage is based on team personnel; would Thomas Chabot be playing 25+ minutes against top competition at age 21 if he was on a contending team? Now, the natural next step was to pair Dunn with Parayko and give them big minutes this year, but the team clearly went out of their way to avoid that, so my question is do they have a good reason or are they miscalculating Dunn's value? I won't argue about the trade value, but I will argue that the Blues are making a big mistake by shopping him in the first place.</div></div>
There is always going to be an appeal to authority that some category is ineffective when evaluating a player’s value/impact. What I’m saying is that’s just one that can provide context in which we use to determine value/impact. For example, that’s why GSAx was created to displace SV% by accounting for high danger shots but we all know the technology isn’t there yet to determine exact location which is critical when talking about a game of inches/luck. Hopefully these new pucks stick and we can have some reliable data that doesn’t fluctuate based on the arena/rink.
At the same time we could argue that an appeal to authority to the STL FO shouldn’t of acquired Krug if they thought highly of Dunn’s ability. Faulk obviously threw a wrench in their plans and I think they’d be better off with AP and Parayko on the right side and insert whoever you want on the left but it is what it is at this point.
I’m not saying Dunn can’t develop but rather he hasn’t shown he can routinely hold down a top 4 spot for various reasons. There are multiple players that continue to grow into complete players after the age of 24. The first defensemen that comes to mind for me is Spurgeon who is definitely under appreciated by the casual fan. It’s also worth noting that Dunn isn’t ED exempt so that will factor into his value.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
il y a 15 heures
Sujet:
Dunn trade to every team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Blues4TheCup</b></div><div>"3rd pair". You don't watch the blues every night so you have no idea what you are talking about. They had a system last year where they played their 3 pairings a similar amount. Yes faulk-dunn was the 3rd pair last year but they had more responsibility than a normal "3rd pair"</div></div>
He also played comparable time with Bortuzzo and a little with AP but yes 16 mins and 16 seconds of ice time = 3rd pair. I actually watched a fair bit of STL games because I knew I was moving to STL this year and wanted to get acquainted with team since I’ll be there for almost 4 years so yeah.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
il y a 16 heures
Sujet:
My View on Dunn
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_K</b></div><div>I don't know, those were just the guys off the top of my head that had defensive lapses but offensive upside and are now thought of as more complete/used in more complete roles. Dunn's scoring rate lies between the two.
I've seen about 200 fan posts in the armchair section with about 25 teams potentially trading for Dunn. I know these are fans and not GMs, but there will clearly be interest and I would hope that Armstrong can squeeze a late 1st out of someone. It's still a bad trade for STL when you look at the likelihood of a pick becoming an everyday player (and STL's picks in 2020, yikes).</div></div>
But if you’re comparing scoring rates you need to also factor utilization and opponents. Dunn is a 60-61% (not counting this years 70% due to sample size), Ozone and Nurse is a sub 50%, and Hamilton ~50% during that time frame. Nurse and Hamilton were also younger and much larger and we know larger guys take longer to develop. Maybe you guys can squeeze out a late first for him but I constantly see ACGMs where they’re not accounting for the initial leaked ask and hyping Dunn up as a solid top 4 guy which he hasn’t proven.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
il y a 16 heures
Sujet:
Dunn trade to every team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Blues4TheCup</b></div><div>talk about recency bias. Dunn is a very good young defenseman who has not been given the opportunity. Especially if there is a bidding war, I would not be surprised at all if this was the type of return they got.</div></div>
He was a sheltered third pairing D the last few seasons so that isn’t a recency bias. You also failed to counter my points, bravo.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
il y a 16 heures
Sujet:
My View on Dunn
Why based on Hamilton/Nurse? They have very little in common when comparing age, size, stylistically, and utilization for those first 200 games to Dunn. Seems like they’d be much better comps. I’d wager he returns a second + prospect given the initial ask is a first.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
il y a 16 heures
Sujet:
Glass stuck on the bench
As already explained about VGk’s cap but this offer is would need to be Rossi ++ and still doesn’t make sense for VGK.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
il y a 16 heures
Sujet:
Dunn trade to every team
Considering the initial ask is a first and we know how negotiations work I’d say overpay (Edmonton seems way off). Seems like a lot for a sheltered third pairing D.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
il y a 17 heures
Sujet:
MATTHEW BERNIERS
Beniers*
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>slapshot723</b></div><div>Oof I'm old I guess. Have you ever heard of the insider "Eklund"? He used to do hockey rumors and mark them with a likelihood of happening on a scale of E1 (least likely) to E5 (most likely). If it was E4 or less, it never happened. If it was E5, it was already announced. Eklund rumors weren't allowed on other message boards anymore because they were so consistently wrong. I can't remember the name of the site, but I think it's still around.
EDIT: Hockeybuzz. It's still around.</div></div>
Eklund actually isn’t his real name but alias so people think he’s important. Guy is a hack.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Wed at 12:04 am
Sujet:
trying to get a deal dunn
Aren’t they asking for a first? So this seems like an over payment considering they may not even get their ask since it’s negotiations 101.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Tue at 6:04 pm
Sujet:
Carolina Season Plan
I wouldn’t mind Staal in Detroit but not at the expense of Veleno.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Letter_Kenny</b></div><div>The point is the Red Wings are a rebuilding team stock piling draft picks. Why would Yzerman trade Joe Veleno and a 2nd round pick for Jordan Staal? It makes zero sense for Detroit. Red Wings aren't a win now team.</div></div>
Detroit is getting the second rounder here.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Tue at 6:00 pm
Sujet:
How much is Danault worth and should we trade him before TDL if he doesnt sign
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F50marco</b></div><div>The way I see it, the Habs both need him still and dont want to lose him for nothing.
This screams just sign him already and move him at a later date once Suzuki and Kotkaniemi officially supplant him.
Even if you slightly overpay, who cares? Habs still need him and teams are lining up for him even if he was 5.75-6M a season.
Losing him for nothing is bad management. Trading him this season before the playoffs is bad management. The answer is simple. You sign him. Deal with him in the future if necessary.</div></div>
What doesn’t stop Danault from asking for a NTC NMC like Gallagher? I’m sure he’ll want to control where he lives and plays going forward.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Tue at 12:03 am
Sujet:
Let the hate flow through you
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ZiggyPalffy</b></div><div>They should after Tuch and Fleury is gone by now.</div></div>
Didn’t see we were a few seasons away in this ACGM. Hopefully Glass & Krebs blossom into studs so VGK doesn’t need to pull off a trade like this.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon at 11:57 pm
Sujet:
Let the hate flow through you
VGK doesn’t have any cap to pull this off.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon at 11:46 pm
Sujet:
oilers offseason
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JRob2911</b></div><div>it's not exactly what would happen, but probably approximately what that trade would look like</div></div>
No one is taking on that cap for a 4th so throw out “approximately”.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon at 2:30 pm
Sujet:
Hughes Brothers
Neither team takes that. Way too much cap for a measly 2nd + 6th and Jack Hughes would require EP I’d imagine.
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