Quoting: uphere
I think you are avoiding the fact that your assumption that Edmonton benefits from playing in the Pacific Division does not hold up against their record, and that you are overstating your position in an effort to try and convince yourself that you are correct. Louder voices do not necessarily speak the truth.
The Oilers have flaws, as does every team in the league. They ended the shortened with a negative team 5v5, in large part due to their record between November 27 and December 27. During that period they managed a 4-11 record and were -26 at 5v5, and allowed 4 short handed goals against. To some degree they missed RNH, who was injured during part of that slump, but for the most part they had very poor goaltending, shoddy team defense, and a general lack of energy. That one month hides the fact that they were a top 5 team in the league through October and November, as well as January to the close of the season. They didn't accomplish that simply because they played in the Pacific Division, in fact their record against the top Eastern Conference teams is better than their record against teams in their own division. Truly effective analytics reflect the story behind the numbers, not just the numbers. That's important because good teams struggle sometimes. If you don't believe that, consider our current Stanley Cup Champions, and the season they endured prior to winning the Cup.
Now which team is better, Toronto or Edmonton? Any answer is conjecture, since these teams have been forced to use different philosophies in roster development because of different circumstances. I would say Toronto appears to have more depth among its forwards, but that may be a mute point since Edmonton has two forwards that are quite literally capable of winning games on their own. Certainly Edmonton would benefit from a better bottom six, but they are quite competitive with the forwards they have. Just like Edmonton could use improvement on its third line in particular, Toronto needs improvement among its top 4 defenders. Edmonton doesn't have an all-world defense, but when Klefbom is healthy, Larsson and Nurse are on their games, and with the emergence of Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones, the Oilers are actually quite good on the blue line, and they are only going to get better over the next couple of seasons. Toronto needs a few stronger pieces now, but the team is very competitive despite that need; they are one of the few teams in the league capable of simply outscoring most opponents on a regular basis... Edmonton might be one of the others capable of the same.
Frankly, I think these two teams have contrasting strengths and weaknesses but right now are surprisingly even in terms of competitiveness against the rest of the league. They finished with very similar records, split their season series, and are capable of playing a very exciting brand of hockey. Both have some salary cap pressure to deal with and yet have enough organizational depth in key spots to ensure they emerge from the expansion draft in good shape. They are likely to be compared against one another for a few more seasons, and it will be interesting to see how they manage to improve and become legitimate Cup contenders during that time.
I will say your assessment of the Oilers is fair but definitely comes with a bias. In the first 2 months they consistently were out shot, out chanced and relied on above average goaltending. Most advanced stats showed a regression was coming and it did. RNH was injured sure. All that does affect a team. However, does that not hold true on the other side of the fence? Lets talk about injuries. Hyman and Dermott missed the first 2 months of the season. JT missed 9 games, Johnsson missed half the season, Marner missed a month, Mikheyev missed over a month, Kerfoot missed games. That is just the forwards, 4 top 6 forwards missed significant time for TO. (Dermott is a defenceman) As for the defence, Rielly and Muzzin both were out for a long stretch, that is our two best defenders. At one point the shutdown pair was Holl and Marincin. No one is going to succeed with that scenario. Couple that with an unusual slide from Andersen during that time and it compounds the defensive issues. And all of that without even mentioning Hutchinson who was a dismal backup. In 15 games for the Leafs he allowed almost 4 goals a game and had a sv% of .886. Many will say it was the Leafs defence hanging him out to dry but then explain Campbell's numbers? 2.63 GAA and a SV% of .915 while playing without Muzzin and Rielly for many of his starts?
This whole thread seems to be filled with comments that excuse any deficiency from the Oilers team, of which there are many. But the same excuses are not allowable for the other side of the argument.
You seem like a very reasonable person and I appreciate the discussion. I will say I am an Oilers fan from a distance, I want them to be good, I like some of their players but their organization has been extremely poorly run for a long time. Holland may or may not be the right guy to right the ship, still seems like the old boys club to me but we'll see. Its not fair to judge him to hard yet. Here is my assessment of both rosters though. As objectively as I can be.
Edmonton has the best player in the world in McDavid, what he is capable of doing offensively is unmatched by anyone. Draisaitl in his own right is also an elite player and they are magic together. One thing they are not however is great defensively. They aren't bad but they certainly aren't good and if you keep the puck away from them, their effectiveness can be limited. The teams depth is very substandard, their bottom 6 is filled with 4th liners or bubble players. I am not really a fan of their defence either. I think Klefbom is terrific and I do like Bear's game but beyond that I don't see a unit that is going to be very good against teams that are strong at 5v5. Their special teams were terrific this year and I doubt their PP will regress but their PK absolutely could and if they were even middle of the pack they would have been out of the playoffs I'd wager. Koskinen looks solid but I am not sold on him yet and Smith really isn't that great. They have so many question marks on their roster and rely so much on McDavid and Draisaitl that I just can't see them having a chance if they get slowed down. From a playoffs perspective, what happens if you play a deep team? Star players often come out even against other stars or plus or minus a couple, but if McDavid and Draisailt are even, can you really count on Sheehan to be a difference maker against an actual 3rd liner?
My point is Edmonton isn't there yet, and they need to figure out a lot of things before they can really be considered a contender.
On TO.
First things first I think it needs to be said they are still extremely young. They were the 4th or 5th youngest team in the league and if you take Spezza out they get even younger. They are still learning how to play. I think Babs was the wrong coach for that since he plays favourites and just grinds young guys to death. I am happy he got fired, his system didn't work, his philosophies were antiquated and he alienated his players. I wish he would have been fired after the playoffs last year, honestly who plays Marleau more than Matthews when you are down a goal at home in game 6 when you have a chance to eliminate Boston. This years team suffered terrible injuries all season. They were no healthy once, and many of those injuries were important players like JT, Marner, Muzzin and Rielly. Andersen as well missed a few games with a neck injury. Many people like to use the season as a whole to judge the franchise but its sort of ridiculous to do so. Since Keefe took over, they have something like the 5th best record in the league. Babs put them in a hole, as did Hutchinson. In hindsight, the Kadri trade may not have been the best but I think it could still turn out alright as I think Kerfoot will rebound. Defensively TO's problem under all of Bab's tenure was a systematic thing. He wanted everyone to pressure everywhere and play a hard man to man style, like a full court press. Sometimes it created turnovers but in their zone it almost always led to grade A chances in front when a forward failed to pick up a guy rotated into the slot. Under Keefe, its all about possession when you have it and when you don't you swarm the front of your own net and limit high danger chances. Had they not had so many injuries in the second half I think many people wouldn't have the same ammo they have now.
Look at the teams on paper, Edmonton has the best player and their top 6 is certainly extremely good, however, TO just has more firepower everywhere else. Defensively, TO is more mobile and has a lot of talent coming in, I'd give the Leafs the edge there as well. I am really not a fan of Larsson or Russell and I think Nurse is a tad overrated. Kelfbom is terrific but Rielly and Muzzin I think are much better and equal to.
I really hope Edmonton manages to turn it around and fix their problems because watching a Leafs Oilers final would be awesome.
PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood a aimé ceci.
Répondre
CapFriendly
CapFriendly