The purpose of this AGM is to test the cap feasibility of adding Connor for Byram. A real-life trade might include picks or other add-ons as well, but for the purpose of this exercise I've just used a 1-for-1. Feel free to share you thoughts on the trade value in the comments if you wish.
Below is a summary of the offseason moves for 2020 and 2021, and some of my thoughts on whether or not a trade like this would work.
****** 2020 OFFSEASON ******
- UFA: Nieto, Wilson, Namestnikov, and Barberio
- Resign: Burakovksy, Nichuskin, Jost, Graves, and Zadorov
- Trade Byram for Connor
- Trade Kamenev and Compher for futures (keep Jost at 3C as he is cheaper)
- Promote Kaut
****** 2021 OFFSEASON ******
- UFA: Bellemare, Calvert, Cole
- Promote Bowers, O'Connor, Timmins
- Expansion Draft: Zadorov selected by Seattle (see below)
- Sign a 6D in UFA to replace Zadorov (or promote Zhuravlyov if he's ready).
Expansion Draft Protection (7+3+1):
- Mackinnon, Rantanen, Landeskog, Connor, Kadri, Burakovsky, Jost
- Makar, Girard, Graves (Johnson waives NMC, and maybe we pay Seattle to not select him)
- Grubauer
Exposed: Donskoi, Zadorov, Johnson, Francouz. Seattle likely pick Zadorov.
Paying for Makar (+$9m) / Landeskog (+$2m) / Grubauer (+$1m), would require $12m in cap opened up.
- Calvert (-$2m), Bellemare (-$1m), Cole (-$3m), and Zadorov (-$2m) moved (via UFA/ED) and replaced by Bowers (ELC), O'Connor (ELC), and Timmins ($1.5m). This saves ~$8m.
- Newhook (ELC) can replace one of Donskoi ($3.9m), Jost ($2m, 3C) to save another $1-3m. Newhook could perhaps even make Kadri ($4.5m) expendable as soon as 2021. Keep in mind that Sakic was comfortable trading Barrie before Makar had played a regular season game, and he might feel the same way about moving Kadri if Newhook plays well in the 2021 playoffs.
- If needed we can also move Johnson ($6m), though that would depend on Timmins being ready.
Looking even further ahead, 2023 would be the next time we need significant capspace to pay for Mackinnon. At that stage Johnson's $6m comes off the books and pays for most of Mackinnon's raise. By then the cap will also probably have risen due to the Seattle expansion and new TV deal, so that should help cover some new contracts.
****** THOUGHTS *******
This COULD legitimately work, especially in the short-term. However, from 2021 onwards sacrifices would need to be made to the roster depth, and we'd be betting on ELC's slightly more than otherwise. I think Colorado CAN add a $7m forward for the foreseeable future, BUT, it would be tricky to do at the expense of an ELC defenseman like Byram without compromising the D group and roster depth.
Looking at the D group, there is a risk that Graves regresses after his break-out season, and with Cole, Johnson, and Zadorov being expensive/aging there could be considerable uncertainty created on the blueline going forwards. Moving Byram would also put more pressure on Timmins needing to be a hit as a Top 4 Dman, which is also risky given his concussion history. If Graves were to regress to being a 3rd pairing D and Timmins has recurring health issues, then we'd be left with Girard and Makar as our only legitimate top 4 defensemen going forwards. Conversely, if Graves (or Zadorov for that matter) and Timmins are legit Top 4 D's then our D group would be looking really solid, even without Byram.
Byram's ELC is clearly tremendously valuable to this team, and so ideally we'd try to pursue other avenues of adding a top 6 forward that don't involve giving up key prospects that will contribute on ELC's (i.e. Byram and Newhook). Trading Byram for a player needing ED protection also likely means that we would lose a slightly better player in the ED than we otherwise would. But adding a player like Connor to the forward group could possibly put us over the top in the next few years so it might be worth it.
Note that Timmins is only included in this AGM as a "scratch" to show depth. Avs usually carry only 1F and 1D extra, and without Timmins as an "extra" scratch Avs would be $900k below the $81.5m cap ceiling.
All-in-all I think it's a really intriguing trade idea, which I can see really good arguments for and also against, and so I'm really curious to hear some thoughts in the comments below!
Regarding Mackinnon, he might take a small paycut to keep the team competitive, but I don't foresee anything less than $12m at a minimum. If the cap rises he could even be looking at around $14m.
FWIW Compher isn't a Michigan native but a native of Illinois, Compher was Captain of the University of Michigan Ice hockey team though. Wouldn't mind him in Detroit though. Looks like a fairly good offer for him.
Thanks for pointing that out.
Quoting: Xqb15
I would push for Detroit’s 2nd and maybe turn the 3rd into a 4th but that’s nitpicking.
Quoting: DiehardRedWingsFan58
Yzerman would never deal our 2nd? Our 2nd only moves if Yzerman is interested in a player in the late 20's where we could package perhaps another 2nd like Edmonton's to perhaps move into the high 20's or so like in the 26 to 29 range or so. Though i personally feel that Yzerman will keep all of our picks.
Detroit has 9 2nd round picks in the next two drafts, so I think there's a high probability that they package some of them to move up and get their guys.
Beyond the draft having that many prospects exiting their ELC's at the same time 3-4 years down the line might be problematic too, so I also think they'll also want to use some of them in trades for young players that they like.
Winnipeg has got Hienola and they want another one of him?
Quoting: jsjt19ms13
byram>heinola not close
Quoting: leafsfanhere95
yes ik. Heinola is similar to Byram (not in skill). Why would they trade for him and give Connor?
Byram is clearly better than Heinola. Whatever the case though, together they would make a very strong left side for Winnipeg going forward:
Byram ------ Pionk
Heinola ----
Morrisey ---
In the 2020 draft with picks #12 and #43 Winnipeg should be able to pick up a good RHD, such as Schneider, Niemela, Barron, Grans, or Cotton to name a few.
Either way this trade would definitely fast-track their re-tool into being a contender again, because right now they aren't close due to their D being weak.
Byram is clearly better than Heinola. Whatever the case though, together they would make a very strong left side for Winnipeg going forward:
Byram ------ Pionk
Heinola ----
Morrisey ---
In the 2020 draft with picks #12 and #43 Winnipeg should be able to pick up a good RHD, such as Schneider, Niemela, Barron, Grans, or Cotton to name a few.
Either way this trade would definitely fast-track their re-tool into being a contender again, because right now they aren't close due to their D being weak.
Pretty solid left side. WPG would definitely need to invest in a few defensive Dmen. None of those guys push 200lbs.
Here's the real answer: Does Colorado NEED Connor to win the cup? if yes, make the trade, if no then don't make it.
Colorado is good enough to potentially win a cup without this trade so sacrificing Byram to get Connor is just over kill. Keep your prospects, develop them, as they come up move out older players and keep the synergy of the team.
A team like Buffalo is in the right situation to sacrifice a young stud for a current one. They haven't made the playoffs in forever and need to get back in the playoffs asap. That makes sense for them. they don't have time to be patient. Colorado has all the time in the world. (Assuming Mack stays obviously)
You've raised some valid points. I don't think there's a wrong answer in this discussion, because whichever way Colorado goes it is a good outcome.
It's also important to note that Connor is still only 23, so it's not like Colorado would be going for only a short-term fix here. Connor would be helping this team be a contender for a long time, especially if the cap rises as expected a couple of years down the line.
In today's cap, you're right, he wouldn't. However, by the time Mackinnon resigns in 2023 it's very likely that the cap will have risen substantially, and so the same % caphit/aav of today's cap ceiling is lower than what it will be in 2023.
Pretty solid left side. WPG would definitely need to invest in a few defensive Dmen. None of those guys push 200lbs.
Schneider makes a lot of sense for them in the draft, though they'd probably prefer to trade down a few picks to take him. 12th isn't the best place to be for defensemen unless you want to pick Sanderson. Not a lot of Dmen high in the draft, but 20-40ish will be the sweetspot for them.
No worries! This is all just fun conversation! It's all good! His playoff run last year was legendary. Each round he got better and better. I was a Bowen Byram guy and wanted CHI to draft him @ #3OA. I 1,000% admit that. I'm just now trying to question my own thinking. COL has amazing prospects and is set up VERY well for the future. Newhook is a stud too.
Actually leading up to the draft I was sure Chicago would take Byram and I was all set on them taking Dach. Lol. I really like Dach’s game. Yeah Byram had a pretty incredible draft year, to surpass it he would have had to been a 30 goal scorer as a dman.
Why? McDavid’s contract will be more than 1/2 over. McJesus can’t be the highest paid player for the duration of his contract rising salary caps and the NHLPA wouldn’t stand for that. Heck somebody like Barzal might get an offer sheet that eclipses McDavid.
Yzerman would never deal our 2nd? Our 2nd only moves if Yzerman is interested in a player in the late 20's where we could package perhaps another 2nd like Edmonton's to perhaps move into the high 20's or so like in the 26 to 29 range or so. Though i personally feel that Yzerman will keep all of our picks.
I said push for, not deal breaker. Compher would be a good fit in Detroit as the 2C until someone like Veleno took that spot allowing Compher to be 3C.
Obviously Colorado should make this trade as its proposed here, this is a massive win for the Avs, laughable that it's even being debated.
I'm not so sure that it's that obvious of a decision. Keeping Byram has enormous upside too, and it would be extremely risky trading a stud like him within the division. Just imagine if Los Angeles Kings had traded Doughty to Anaheim for Perry... maybe that makes Anaheim the California team that wins multiple cups instead. Fine margins...
The Jets should absolutely not do this deal. Morrissey is the top-pairing defensemen at LHD, and then Heinola and Samberg are at maximum 1 year away from being NHL regulars. Probably the exact same timeline as Byram. Sure Byram has more potential than both Heinola and Samberg, but they both have top-4 potential and the Jets shouldn’t be giving up a 40 goal scorer for a player that we have no real need for.
rofl, no way COL get Connor for just a prospects who has not played a single game in the NHL no mater how touted he is, Connor is a proven 30+ goal scorer in his prime, and the Jets have absolutely no reason to trade him especially to a divisional rival....
I'm not so sure that it's that obvious of a decision. Keeping Byram has enormous upside too, and it would be extremely risky trading a stud like him within the division. Just imagine if Los Angeles Kings had traded Doughty to Anaheim for Perry... maybe that makes Anaheim the California team that wins multiple cups instead. Fine margins...
Connor is a 24 year old FORTY GOAL scorer on a reasonable contract for SIX more seasons and the Avalanche already have Makar, Girard and some other good young dmen while Byram hasn't played an NHL game yet, I'd say it's a quite obvious decision really.
Connor is a 24 year old FORTY GOAL scorer on a reasonable contract for SIX more seasons and the Avalanche already have Makar, Girard and some other good young dmen while Byram hasn't played an NHL game yet, I'd say it's a quite obvious decision really.
jsjt19ms13 et exo2769 a aimé ceci.
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