Colarado is going to be good a long time and they deserve it. Honestly one of my fav teams, I loved the series against them last year because it was a showcase of skill, and not a **** fest like the blues or knights series. Im here for a dominant Avs

I agree with everything except 2 minor things. Kamenev through bad luck is either going to walk out right or be traded because of Newhook and Bowers. AJ Greer is gone period. His fate was sealed in October with his epic explosion in Milwaukee, and he is blocked by Kaut and others.

It's a good job.

This prevents it from being great:

Nichushkin. His career was characterized by being bad. He had one good year, but it still locked his fate as a middle sixer at best. I would be very hesitant to give him three years. And if I were, it's not for this much money. A 2 year deal in the later 2M range is really all he should get. If he wants more, he could be some good trade bait.

Burakovsky. Nobody really saw this type of year from him. He was average in WSH, but also never got the chances to be better. Still, and using your Nichushkin contract, he will get more. Probably 4M on 2 years. More likely I see 4-6 year contract here near 5M. Watch what Duclair gets. He should get similar, maybe a few 100k more.

Otherwise, good job. Make the adjustments and it's a great job.

I have to know, what happened in Milwaukee

Overall a really nice AGM, good job!

Kolyachonok, Vladislav and 2020 3rd round pick (COL) for Zadorov, Nikita
I like your thinking here. Picking up a good defensive prospect like Kolyachonok would be really nice add in return for Zadorov. With Girard and Byram at LHD we're likely to need more of a 3rd pairing type of LHD, so it makes sense to target Kolyachonok. Adding a prospect instead of a pick also brings that asset a year closer to contributing than a 2020 pick would. That said, there's been noise about Florida ownership wanting to cut money from the roster, and so they might not want to add Zadorov, particularly as he'd be 3rd pairing for them at $3.2m+.

Burakovsky, André 2 $3,750,000 ---- Probably gets closer to $5m and some term, but I could see Sakic wanting another 'prove it' deal like this.
Dries, Sheldon 1 $700,000
Greer, AJ 1 $700,000 - I think his play after his suspension earns him a QO, but wouldn't be surprised if he's simply released or traded.
Miska, Hunter 1 $700,000
O'Connor, Logan 1 $700,000
Graves, Ryan 2 $2,750,000 ---- about right, good signing. Roughly $2.5m/2 years or $2.75m/3 years is probably his contract zone.
Jost, Tyson 2 $2,000,000 ---- Good signing. That puts him between the Crouse and Bennett contracts which are good comparabes.
Kamenev, Vladislav 1 $900,000 ---- Could see him get traded to a team where he'll have more opportunity.
Zadorov, Nikita 1 $3,250,000 --- That's his QO which is fair given that he hasn't proved he deserves a raise on. However, a 1 year contract takes him straight to UFA so i think it's likely he gets traded (which is what you've done).
Nichushkin, Valeri 3 $3,250,000 -- About $1m too much.

Lastly, I think you missed Kaut from the lineup. He's going to be a regular bottom 6er. Even if he's only on the 4th line he'll still get plenty of ice-time on the PK (which he's good at) as well as on PP2.

Again, nice job with this, all logical signings and moves.

Google "AJ Greer Milwaukee"...

I mentioned Kaut in the description towards the end, I wasn't sure if he would be ready, or if he could/should play on the fourth line, which you answered

I am a believer that the Nuke contract is a massive steal, and over a mil low... But ik he'll never get any more, and ik I'm never gonna be able to change people's minds that he actually is good

You can google it, but he lost his mind. He got in one fight ok, goes to the box, before play resumes leaves box fights another guy, so in a span of 2 minutes he gets 2 fighting majors and 3 game misconducts for 40 minutes in penalties. That on the heals of him and Sony Milano beating some guy up in some weird after hours setting. Then you already had the impression he is a hot head who doesn’t always play smart. So yeah I would be surprised if he is back.

In fairness to Greer he has battled some mental health issues, and it is probably best for all he is somewhere else next year.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.milehighhockey.com/platform/amp/2019/10/22/20926865/colorado-avalanche-prospect-a-j-greer-suspended-six-games-by-the-ahl

the best thing to ever happen to the franchise was Roy to quit on them in August. Once he was gone and the roster power struggled was decided. Sakic finally started to build the team and pipeline the right way.

Plus they really found a winner in Bednar as a coach, I think hes up there in the top 10 currently in the NHL, the guy gets it. Plus his work he did in the playoffs especially to Calgary, instilled a lot of confidence in the fan base they have the right guy

Good summary and roster creation. They really dont have to do much, can play coy and see what the market does. They are not in a position that they NEED to add a top UFA to take it to the next level.


2 years is what I would go on him but disagree with your take with Nuke, his defensive metrics are off the chart and he has always had a strong defensive game. The offensive might be inconsistent but thats not why they brought him back in. Its how good defensively he is.

and with Burakovsky...the Avs saw that coming with him, why they tried to get him for the past 2 seasons. His underlying numbers with his shot generation was super encouraging in a lower role in Washington. All signs with his metrics pointed to a break out in an elevated role. His shooting% is silly right now but hes established himself as a legit 2nd line winger with this team. Their advance stats department hit a home run this offseason. They targeted Burakovsky, Donskoi, and Nichushkin....all had great underlying numbers but would do well in elevated roles. Maybe the Fancy Stats guys are on to something here

Good point about the fancy stats. It does indeed seem that the backroom staff target players with good underlying numbers, and it worked very well this season. Minor correct in bold: Burakovsky only joined in 2019 so it's 1 season rather than 2.

Regarding Nichuskin, what do you think a good defensive forward should be paid? Can you think of any good comparables?

I think he's the first of the "analytical darlings" to have his contract expire, ZAR and Bjorkstrand both expire next year, Kase I want to say the year after tho he could be next year as well, Coleman is next year, the best comparable I can think of is Foligno in MIN, which is what, 3.25 or 3.75, he was a proven really solid defensive forward, and UFA, so those lead to him getting a bit more, but we're also entering an era where players and teams can use analytics in contract negotiations, which with Mike's insane season could lead to him getting a bit more.... Conclusion I think somewhere in the mid threes with some term (like 3, maybe 4 years) seems reasonable to get it done

Thanks for outlining things so thoroughly, much appreciated.

Do you think Sakic would actually sign Nichuskin to $3m+, or do you think he'd try to bring in the "next" underpaid stat darling? I mean, if we added Donskoi, Nichuskin, and Burakovsky all in one summer, it would make sense that Sakic probably has another few players he'd like to target and bring in this summer with similarly good underlying numbers. For example, maybe he trades Nichuskin (instead of signing a $3m contract) and acquires Lehkonen who has a lower $2.4m cap hit.

I don't think so, Nuke and Bjorkstrand were probably the two best analytics guys, so whoever they'd get would be a step down, and either way it is going to be viewed (from an analytics perspective) as a good contract, whether they resign Nuke or go out and get a guy like ERod or as you mentioned Lehkonen

Good point, I agree. Better the bird in your hand than two in the woods. Nichuskin fits well with the team and is a known commodity, might as well keep him.

Btw, forgive my ignorance, but who are ERod and ZAR?

Evan Rodrigues (had a down year this year, but was really solid after he got traded to PIT) and Zach Aston-Reese

No I means Sakic tried to trade for him for before. They were linked to be interested in bura for 2 seasons before they finally traded for him

Rocco Grimaldi just signed for 2 years 2m aav, that’s a good contract comp for nuke

Ah yes, now I see what you mean re: Bura. Thanks for clarifying.

Good comparison.

Namestinkov and Cole are other guys that Sakic has targeted seasons before joining the Avs. Eventually they target those smart money buy guys and work on getting them.
Thats why it wont shock me if they try and do sign Namestinkov. Tried to get him the previous TDL, settled on Brassard, finally go him so I think they will keep him

Makes sense. It does indeed seem like Sakic goes after certain players relentlessly when he wants them.

The reason why I think it's unlikely that Namestnikov stays is that he'll want max term on his next contract, and Sakic is uber careful with cap management so I'm not sure he'll want to go beyond 2023 (3 years) on an extension for Namestnikov.

In any case, what sort of AAV and term do you think Namestnikov deserves, and what do you think Sakic will offer him?

Landy Mack Rants
Bura Kadri Nuke
Name Jost Compher
Calvert Belle Donskoi

There is room for him bc NIeto and Wilson are both not coming back. And if they do something with Jost in the offseason, even more room with Kaut being able to slide in opening night.
Just saying it wouldnt shock me bc guys that fit and work on this team (and Namestinkov fit in seaminglessly) dont see why you wouldnt if the price is right

I agree, unless Colorado brings in another forward via trade or UFA it makes sense to keep the team as strong as possible. Namestnikov did look very good in his 9 games so far. BUT.... What is the right price? Colorado has capspace to burn, but term is going to be an issue. Maybe he does sign a short-term deal at a higher caphit that he gets offered on longer term deals in UFA.

I think lots of UFAs are going to do cheaper 1 or 2 year deals so they can get a bigger longer contract once the Cap figures itself out again. It will go up with the new tv deal and expansion. Avs have something around 7-8m in cap money to pay with in UFA without having to do any roster shuffling. They could give him 2 year 4.5maav and still would be fine to do other moves. If you move Zadorov out in the right deal, you are talking about being players to throw some cash at Pietro level UFAs