Willy Trouba Ghost

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Créé par: TanSor

Équipe: 2019-20 Wild du Minnesota

Date de création initiale: 16 avr. 2019

Publié: 16 avr. 2019

Mode - plafond salarial: Basique

Description

Trying to speak a Spurgeon to Toronto trade into existence. A deal like this just makes so much sense for both sides. Spurgeon would instantly become the best defensemen (in terms of defensive ability) on Toronto's blue line and he'd be the perfect partner for Morgan Rielly. Shaw had a good year coming back from an injury and would provide a cheap ELC player that could fill in on the 3rd line next year. I'd like to keep him since he does have middle 6 upside, but if he could land us Nylander then I'm all for trading him.

Winnipeg is in a conundrum with Trouba as it seems he wants big money and the Jets may not be able to give it to him. The Wild help out and take him along with a cap dump for an above average 2nd pairing LD that would help solidify Winnipeg's top 4.

Philly has a ton of LD and while Ghost has played the right side very well in the past I still wouldn't be surprised if he's gone this offseason. Philly has the money to go after a big fish like Karlsson or they could opt for a more defensively sound player in Tyler Myers if they decide to add in free agency. Otherwise, they have some decent D prospects.

I'm not a big fan of giving Fiala this type of money but Fenton thinks he can be a 30+ goal scorer and might want get ahead of the curve and pull an Arvidsson-like deal out of his hat.

Signatures de joueurs autonomes

RFA	ANS	CAP HIT
Donato, Ryan	2	2 750 000 $
Fiala, Kevin	6	4 750 000 $
Sturm, Nico	3	1 250 000 $
Belpedio, Louis	2	975 000 $
Trouba, Jacob	6	8 000 000 $

UFA		ANS	CAP HIT
Hunt, Brad		1	800 000 $
Read, Matt		1	700 000 $

Transactions

MIN

Nylander, William
Choix de 4e ronde en 2019 (STL)

TOR

Shaw, Mason
Spurgeon, Jared (2 593 750 $ retained)

Détails additionnels:

Spurgeon signs an extension.

MIN

Gostisbehere, Shayne

PHI

Åberg, Pontus [Droits de RFA]
Zucker, Jason

Détails additionnels:

Had a discussion with @Dmh1055 about a deal revolving around Zucker and Ghost. We both agreed that the Wild would have to add a bit more so we give Philly an offensive minded wing that played both sides well for us and potted 12 goals last year. He'd be a nice 3rd line piece for the Flyers and will be pretty cheap to re-sign.

MIN

Choix de 5e ronde en 2019 (ANA)

ANA

Pateryn, Greg

Détails additionnels:

Anywhere that needs a solid depth RD that can play 2nd pairing minutes in a pinch.

MIN

Kulikov, Dmitry
Trouba, Jacob [Droits de RFA]

WPG

Brodin, Jonas
Eriksson Ek, Joel [Droits de RFA]

Détails additionnels:

Edited based off of feedback.

Rachats de contrats

Tyler Ennis: 1 216 667 $
Dmitry Kulikov: 1 444 444 $

Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire

Jared Spurgeon: 2 593 750 $ (50%)

Repêchage	1e ronde	2e ronde	3e ronde	4e ronde	5e ronde	6e ronde	7e ronde
2019
2020
2021

FORMATION

VUE À LONG TERME

INTÉGRÉ

TEXTE INTÉGRÉ

TAILLE DE LA FORMATION	PLAFOND SALARIAL	CAP HIT	EXCÉDENTS	BONIS	ESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
22	83 000 000 $	75 224 984 $	0 $	1 100 000 $	7 775 016 $

Ailier gauche	Centre	Ailier droit
Greenway, Jordan 916 666 $916 666 $ (500 000 $$500K) AG, AD UFA - 1	Staal, Eric 1 625 000 $1 625 000 $ C M-NTC UFA - 2	Donato, Ryan 2 750 000 $2 750 000 $ AG, C, AD UFA - 2
Fiala, Kevin 4 750 000 $4 750 000 $ AD, AG UFA - 2	Nylander, William 6 962 366 $6 962 366 $ AD UFA - 5	Kunin, Luke 925 000 $925 000 $ (600 000 $$600K) AD, C RFA - 1
Parise, Zach 7 538 462 $7 538 462 $ AG NMC UFA - 6	Koivu, Mikko 5 500 000 $5 500 000 $ C NMC UFA - 1	Read, Matt 700 000 $700 000 $ AD, AG UFA
Foligno, Marcus 2 875 000 $2 875 000 $ AD, AG UFA - 2	Sturm, Nico 1 250 000 $1 250 000 $ C UFA - 1	Rask, Victor 2 000 000 $2 000 000 $ C UFA - 3

Défenseur gaucher	Défenseur droitier	Gardien de but
Suter, Ryan 7 538 462 $7 538 462 $ DG NMC UFA - 6	Dumba, Matt 6 000 000 $6 000 000 $ DD UFA - 4	Dubnyk, Devan 2 166 667 $2 166 667 $ G M-NTC UFA - 2
Gostisbehere, Shayne 4 500 000 $4 500 000 $ DG/DD UFA - 4	Trouba, Jacob 8 000 000 $8 000 000 $ DD UFA - 7
Seeler, Nick 725 000 $725 000 $ DG/DD UFA - 2	Belpedio, Louis 975 000 $975 000 $ DD UFA - 1	Stalock, Alex 785 000 $785 000 $ G UFA - 3

Laissés de côté	Liste des blessés (IR)	Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
Hunt, Brad 800 000 $800 000 $ DG/DD UFA - 2
Brown, J.T. 687 500 $687 500 $ AD UFA - 1

16 avr. 2019 à 21 h 2

Lights

Rejoint: avr. 2018

Messages: 5,797

Mentions "j'aime": 1,399

Don't hate that Flyers deal. Similar age, both had down years. Would just rather have like a third rounder instead of Aberg.

TanSor, Phil2893 et Dmh1055 a aimé ceci.

16 avr. 2019 à 21 h 3

TanSor

Démarrer sujet

Rejoint: juin 2017

Messages: 8,697

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Quoting: ExpiredmilkYT

Don't hate that Flyers deal. Similar age, both had down years. Would just rather have like a third rounder instead of Aberg.

That was the thought process! I probably would too but I doubt Fenton wants to trade any of our picks unless we're moving up...

Lights a aimé ceci.

16 avr. 2019 à 21 h 17

arafay

Rejoint: mars 2018

Messages: 7,337

Mentions "j'aime": 2,389

Jets want a conditional 1st as well if Trouba signs long-term.
Also would want a decent young cost effective player, Maybe erikson ek, Kunin, Sturm, etc

TanSor a aimé ceci.

16 avr. 2019 à 21 h 23

TanSor

Démarrer sujet

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Quoting: arafay

Jets want a conditional 1st as well if Trouba signs long-term.
Also would want a decent young cost effective player, Maybe erikson ek, Kunin, Sturm, etc

We could throw in Eriksson Ek, but not a 1st. Brodin had by far his best year in a Wild sweater last year, he saved our asses so many times in our own zone. Trouba is good but not Brodin + Eriksson Ek + a 1st good along with taking a cap dump... Cap space for Winnipeg is an asset in this trade.

16 avr. 2019 à 21 h 26

Ryminister_27

Banni

Rejoint: mars 2018

Messages: 6,784

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Leafs pass. No need to take Spurgeon for Nylander when that would guarantee we lose 1 of Liljegren, Sandin, or possibly Dermott in the expansion draft. Next year isn't the year for Toronto to go for a d-man with the cap problems coming up. Once Marleau and Muzzin and the other big contracts are off the books is the time to go all in. 2020/2021 is the year. Until then, they'll keep the skilled forwards and rely on development of prospects in the system.

16 avr. 2019 à 21 h 31

aedoran

Rejoint: déc. 2017

Messages: 21,775

Mentions "j'aime": 12,086

Kulikov $4.4M for 1yr doesn’t make Brodin worth Trouba, IMO.

TanSor a aimé ceci.

16 avr. 2019 à 21 h 43

TanSor

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Rejoint: juin 2017

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Quoting: aedoran

Kulikov $4.4M for 1yr doesn’t make Brodin worth Trouba, IMO.

In another comment I said we could add Eriksson Ek. Would that do it for Winnipeg?

aedoran a aimé ceci.

16 avr. 2019 à 21 h 48

TanSor

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Quoting: Ryminister_27

I mean you're going to lose one of those guys anyways assuming you don't leave a talented forward exposed, so I don't really see your logic... You're getting Spurgeon (graded out to be a an average #1 defenseman by The Athletic, not a top pairing a #1) next year at $2.6M and then you'd have him extended as part of the trade when both Muzzin and Marleau are off the books meaning you could easily afford him for the 20/21 season. I've watched every one of your playoff games along with about 10-15 regular season games and I've seen Freddy left out to dry so many times. Spurgeon would do wonders for your D core, he was far and away our best player last year.

16 avr. 2019 à 22 h 24

arafay

Rejoint: mars 2018

Messages: 7,337

Mentions "j'aime": 2,389

Quoting: TanSor

The first would be conditional on Trouba signing long-term. Could have a 1st with the same conditions going the other way too?

16 avr. 2019 à 22 h 25

#10

TanSor

Démarrer sujet

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Quoting: arafay

The first would be conditional on Trouba signing long-term. Could have a 1st with the same conditions going the other way too?

If Trouba isn't signing long term then I wouldn't want him, I'd rather just keep Spurgeon on our blue line who would be less of a headache.

16 avr. 2019 à 22 h 31

#11

arafay

Rejoint: mars 2018

Messages: 7,337

Mentions "j'aime": 2,389

Quoting: TanSor

If Trouba isn't signing long term then I wouldn't want him, I'd rather just keep Spurgeon on our blue line who would be less of a headache.

Exactly. So you think you will get Trouba long-term for a Brodin rental (2nd round pick value - at most) and a middle six forward in Ek (even that is a generous evaluation and he might not even crack our lineup). Yeah definitely not. I also though brodin was a 30 pt d-man. Now that I looked him up, don't want him. Unless that 2019 1st is coming our way with ek, Kunin, or Sturm, no thanks. The jets will find a better offer elsewhere. Would you accept Brodin and Ek for Spurgeon long-term. No right?. Trouba is just as good and younger.

16 avr. 2019 à 22 h 34

#12

TanSor

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Quoting: arafay

You're severely under valuing Brodin. He had a fantastic year for us, hes way more valuable than a 2nd. He's not going to give you 50p seasons but he'll consistently save his teams ass at least once per night. That's fine with me then.

16 avr. 2019 à 23 h 18

#13

arafay

Rejoint: mars 2018

Messages: 7,337

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Quoting: TanSor

Chiarot will consistently save our ass too but we are not trading him for spurgeon or any players because we know his value

16 avr. 2019 à 23 h 27

#14

TanSor

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Quoting: arafay

Chiarot will consistently save our ass too but we are not trading him for spurgeon or any players because we know his value

Good luck getting an above average 2nd pairing defenseman, a promising forward with 2nd line upside, and a high first round pick for Trouba. I'm not saying Brodin's value is sky high, but from all the Jets games I've seen Trouba doesn't look that much better than Brodin. Analytics back me up.

Here's the Wild's unblocked shots allowed heatmap with Brodin on the ice
brodijo93

And here it is without Brodin
brodijo93

Brodin had a -9% threat impact when he was on the ice which is very good.

Now here's Winnipeg with Trouba
troubja94

And here you are without him
troubja94

The locations of the shots changed with Trouba indicating he had a small impact, but you had no difference in unblocked shot rates while he was on the ice, which indicates he didn't have much of an impact. Unblocked shots doesn't necessarily mean shot-blocking, it can also mean use of a stick to thwart a goal. Now again, I'm not saying Brodin is some fantastic defenseman, he shouldn't see top pairing minutes, but he's an above average 2nd pairing guy and analytically speaking has much more of a defensive impact on the ice than Trouba.

16 avr. 2019 à 23 h 37

#15

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Rejoint: juill. 2015

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Modifié 16 avr. 2019 à 23 h 43

The Jets trade makes sense. So many Jets fans think they Trouba is worth way too for a being a one year rental for the Jets or his new team. And Kulivov in the trade, and the Jets are pretty well cap compliant makes sense. IMO, Trouba isn't signing that extension though, he'll still seek being a UFA and go to the teams he wants. But think it's still a good deal for both teams.
The Leafs trade...Forget the extension for Spurgeon...it's really unpractical for both Leafs and Spurgeon. Leafs gain valuable cap space, and a good one year player at a needed position. Wild get the potential of Nylander and glad you put him at centre. Don't know much of about the other trades but for the Jets and Leaf trades, five stars.

TanSor a aimé ceci.

16 avr. 2019 à 23 h 44

#16

TanSor

Démarrer sujet

Rejoint: juin 2017

Messages: 8,697

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Quoting: palhal

The Jets trade makes sense. So many Jets fans think they Trouba is worth way too for a being a one year rental for the Jets or his new team. And Kulivov in the trade, and the Jets are pretty well cap compliant makes sense. IMO, Trouba isn't signing that extension though, he'll still seek being a UFA and go to the teams he wants. But think it's still a good deal for both teams.
The Leafs trade...Forget the extension for Spurgeon...it's really unpractical for both Leafs and Spurgeon. Leave gain valuable cap space, and a good one year player at a needed position. Wild get the potential of Nylander and glad you put him at centre. Don't know much of about the other trades but for the Jets and Leaf trades, five stars.

Thank you!

No kidding you'd think Trouba is the next Erik Karlsson or Victor Hedman... You're probably right, I think he'll go to arbitration, get a 1 year deal, see free agency, and go home to Detroit.

Wild could do that with Spurgeon. This trade makes so much sense to me. Leafs have played awesome against Boston so far, but there have been a few times (mainly with Gardiner - Dermott on the ice) where your D has left Freddy to the dogs. A RD such as Spurgeon would go so far towards helping your D.

17 avr. 2019 à 1 h 29

#17

arafay

Rejoint: mars 2018

Messages: 7,337

Mentions "j'aime": 2,389

Quoting: TanSor

And here it is without Brodin
brodijo93

Brodin had a -9% threat impact when he was on the ice which is very good.

Now here's Winnipeg with Trouba
troubja94

And here you are without him
troubja94

From your heat map it shows that Trouba makes a significant difference in preventing shots from the slot while Brodin does not make that much of a difference in high danger chances. It shows that trouba, though less of an overall difference, is makes a bigger difference in terms of impact. Brodin however just makes an already good team slightly better in denying high danger scoring chances. Also, brodin (though however good he may be) has waaaay less production than Trouba. I am not saying that Brodin is not good, but he is not good enough to hold up the package you are offering.

I respect your offer of Brodin and Ek but I would need a conditional 1st as well if he resigns long-term

17 avr. 2019 à 6 h 44

#18

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Rejoint: juill. 2015

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Now I understand why maybe the Jets would want Trouba for a Cup run and one year (and one year only), but if the Jets plan on trading Trouba and get a good player in return with term, the proposed trade might be about the best offer the Jets get.

TanSor a aimé ceci.

17 avr. 2019 à 8 h 54

#19

Leafsfan23

Rejoint: oct. 2018

Messages: 74

Mentions "j'aime": 12

Quoting: Ryminister_27

Liljegren and Sandin don't need to be protected. Leafs could protect Rielly, Spurgeon and Muzzin if he resigns

TanSor a aimé ceci.

17 avr. 2019 à 18 h 59

#20

arafay

Rejoint: mars 2018

Messages: 7,337

Mentions "j'aime": 2,389

Quoting: palhal

The problem I have is that he is singing long term in this and the jets should be getting a conditional 1st for that

17 avr. 2019 à 19 h 3

#21

Pmwalker

Rejoint: avr. 2019

Messages: 944

Mentions "j'aime": 302

I’d rather have Spurgeon if we’re dealing with Minny. Something around 11oa as the base.

Provorov/Spurgeon
Sanheim/Myers
Morin/Ghost

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