Because Dubas just decides not to do his job ever again?

Im not saying they can fix this because they can, I’m just saying this is what their cap would look like if this happened before they made moves if they matched everything

Does anyone really think that zero of these guys will be signed prior to July 1 though? Like lets be honest here, the worst case scenario is that 1 of Marner or Matthews gets an offer sheet. That would cause a lot of turmoil and drama but this scenario is just insanity.

My simple answer to this would be...

1) Kadri should go. Being a center and over 25, the core will outlast him and he can get picks and prospects that would help along the way. Matthews & Tavares cover 40min per night.

2) try to trade Marleau, if you can, awesome. Try to add a pick if you have to.

3) if you can’t trade Marleau, move Nylander. Maybe you sell yourself short, but Matthews, Marner & Tavares are this teams’ triumvirate, keep it together

So now you move nylander zaitsev and brown to let’s say NY islanders (they have the pieces, zaitsev may need to be moved in a separate deal for a pick if they don’t have the space)

For let’s say mayfield, ho-sang and any other picks or prospects to balance.

Leafs are again cap compliant.

This actually gives me an idea for an agm.

I know what you're saying, but I did not expect the Leaf's front office to capitulate to Nylander's camp - especially when they held all of the leverage - and they did just that. They over paid Nylander, and set the precedent for Marner's and Matthew's camps that they can hold out to the 11th hour should they wish. Dubas is on record saying he's going to learn from the Nylander process and get Matthews' and Marner's contracts signed way earlier than Nylander's, but at what cost? Will he be less stern? More stern? The AAV difference between Matthews' contract and Marner's contract has shrunk substantially since day 1 of the season, so it'll be a juicy summer/fall for sure.

You’re not understanding the gm post. It’s worst case scenario if ALL of them were offersheeted and all matched. It’s not likely it’ll happen it’s just the worst case scenario that they all do.

Trading marleau will not cost a pick, he is a great player. Getting him to waive nmc is impossible.

That might work! I think you’re on to something

From the Dallas point of view I’d honestly take Marleau off Toronto if he waived and I’d give them someone like Honka or Johns, but they’d have to take some cap back to make it work like a Hanzal or Comeau

I don't think they really overpaid Nylander. I think he'll be a point a game player once he's up to full speed, he hasn't hit his prime yet, probably won't until next season or the year after.

While I agree with you that a scenario like this has little chance of playing out, I also think that you have framed up why a big trade for a true 1rhd is also unlikely, imo. I think there is just way too much uncertainty right now, with all the rfas that need to be signed, for a big trade to go down. It's kinda like added increasing layers of complexity ontop of a foundation that isn't set. For better or worse, the Leafs rfas have collectively handcuffed forward planning until a few of them have signed - giving the front office some sense of cap certainty. Until that cap picture becomes a bit clearer I'm doubtful that the leafs will do anything but make low cost, low risk depth adds.

The worse thing would be for the Leafs to match some of those offers sheets. What team has the cap to offer Marner or even Matthews about 15m. When a multiple trophy winner, McDavid makes 12.5m. certain Matthews and Marner are undeserving of that money. Although offer sheets are not necessarily based on "deserved."

If Kapanen was given that OS I'd take the 1st and the 3rd and run.

I did a post where Dallas was able to fit Matthews in at 15 mil not too long ago today

My only comment is if Marner or Matthews sign and accept an offer from another team and sign the offer sheet does that mean they really do not want to play for Toronto as a cup contender. If so then maybe it is best to let them go and and work with the four 1st round pick compensation and trade them for or use Toronto's own picks to offer sheet a top RD.

You're right. But let's say it Matthews offer sheet that doesn't get matched. The Leafs would have the 12m they have allotted for Matthews PLUS the four first rounders. Gee maybe they sign a UFA such as Duchene for 9m, (I know he's not Matthews) have 3m more plus the four first rounders. So I never look at an offer sheet as the four first rounders, it's what you do with that new cap space.
Personally I think Matthews and Marner want to stay here, but if there was a big money difference from the RIGHT team, yea I can't blame for signing an offer sheet.

If what you're saying is true, then Nylander's agent might be the best of all time. How do you convince a GM to pay that amount of money on a 60 point player - who disappears in the playoffs - only for him to be potentially worth it for 4 of the 6 years?

I know the cap has inflated, so dollar for dollar comparisons aren't really that helpful, but percentage of cap when signed is usually the best equalizer when comparing players. The fact is, Nylander's deal in 2018-2019 represented the same percentage of the Leafs' cap (0.9%) that Pastrnak's did in the 2017-2018 season for Boston (0.9%) and that Gaudreau's did (0.9%) in 2016-2017 for Calgary. No one could/should ever argue that Nylander is on par with either Gaudreau or Patsrnak - he's a level below them and I don't want to hear the "we'll he could be as good as them" argument. No - he won't because he's not that type of player. He can be invisible at times and has the benefit of playing with a generational player (Matthews). When he doesn't play with Matthews, he barely produces. Gaudreau and Pastrnak play with elite players, but I think we can all agree that Matthews is going to have a more impactful career (except maybe Bergeron, but Bergeron is a 2-way forward so comparing them is pointless) than those guys and Nylander gets to benefit from it. Marner - on the other hand - is capable of taking good players and getting them career years (JVR, Bozak, even the fourth line got points from him last year) and is worth every dollar he gets. Nylander is still young, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt to prove me wrong, but for those who think this guy will be a perennial 80 point player you're dreaming.

You have it all figured out don't you.

Here is the thing and that is happening.

Young high end talent, of which Nylander absolutely is that, aren't settling for below market value coming out of their ELC's. No one had a problem with JVR or Evander Kane getting 7 mill a season and Nylander is better than either of those players. But Nylander is only so he gets the "you haven't paid your dues" nonsense that many people have. I am so sick of people looking for every possible reason to make Nylander look like crap. Compare him to Pastrnak or Gudreau or whoever, you are missing the point and are just looking for a reason to crap on the Leafs.

The reality is Gudreau is underpaid, so is Pastrnak. So is McKinnon and many other star players. There is going to be a very big swing in how secondary and depth players get paid. Top end talent will get paid top end money and secondary and depth guys (guys who can't put up big numbers on their own) will get paid way less than they currently do. Why? Because teams won't be able to afford to through bad money at depth guys who are easier to find and replace with young talent.

Watch what happens in Colorado soon. McKinnon is by far the best player on his team, its not even close, and yet, Rantanen is going go get a 10 million dollar a year max deal thrown at him. Then in a few years when McKinnon's contract is up for renewal he'll get a massive deal that'll pay him for his prime years that he will soon be exiting and then Colorado is going to have a huge problem on their hands.

A players prime runs from 23is - about 30 before they start sliding. Its a young mans game in this era and that is becoming more and more real each year. So if your best hockey occurs in your mid 20's, why would young players leave money on the table leaving their ELC's? It just doesn't which is why McDavid, Eichel, Pastrnak, etc got term, they see that a shift is coming. Guys like Doughty, Tavares, Seguin etc getting huge 8 year deals in their late 20's will soon be a thing of the past because its not a good plan. These guys got huge deals for what they did in their best years and they'll never live up to the contracts. Look at Chicago and Anaheim as proof. Term and high cap hits for guys who are declining.

I don't have it all figured out - if I did I wouldn't be commenting on an AGM post lol.

I think you're partly right. Young players "used" to have to settle in their RFA years because they held little leverage, but that mindset was kept alive by the NHLPA and older players telling them "wait till you become a UFA, then you'll cash in." The old model saw players in their early to mid thirties get monster deals, because high-end players played for more than 12 seasons and the style of play kept/encouraged older players to play longer. In the last 5 years, there's been a massive shift to get young, talented, and fast players which - by osmosis - pushed out the older and slower players, not even to mention the enforcers being pushed out with the knowledge we now have on CTE. So you're right, why wait until your 27 to get a big contract when - on average - you'll be out of the league when you're 30-31 years old.

The difference between Nylander and Gaudreau and Pastrnak is that Nylander produced two good replicate seasons before he signed his RFA contract. He did not show growth, but showed consistency. Granted, he should be paid for that but not to the same extent than that of Gaudreau and Pastrnak. Both of them had career years leading up to their RFA contracts and deserved what they signed for. These two guys are outperforming their contracts now, which looks great for their respective GMs. Nylander is not living up to his contract right now (he has 3 points in 15 games FFS) and most people agree he was overpaid to begin with (hence Dubas literally waiting to the last moment to sign him) so I think - at best - Nylander performs at the level of his contract which is fine. But to sell the idea that this contract will look amazing for the Leafs in the future is a pipe dream. And I don't think anyone is comparing Nylander to Kane or JVR - it's a false equivalency - since those two were UFA's and had the entire NHL market to exploit and teams overpaid to get them. That being said, from 2014-2015 to 2017-2018 there wasn't as much cap growth and HRR that the league expected their to be. As a result, GM's and players alike could not ask for massive deals because the cap wouldn't allow it and thus a market was set. Is Gaudreau underpaid now - yes. Was he underpaid two years ago when he signed - probably not, no because that was the market then. Same with MacKinnon - and now Sheiffle - and by all means if you can find articles at the time these players signed showing uproar that they were underpaid then please provide them and I'll dismiss this whole thing.

At the end of the day, markets evolve over time and more HRR is being brought in so players salaries will rise accordingly. It's a linear relationship seeing as the owners and the NHLPA split revenues 50/50. Rantanen will deserve what he gets, he's performing at a ridiculous pace and the market will allow him to be compensated accordingly. MacKinnon will lap him in a few years - like you said - because he's the better player and will deserve a big UFA contract. But you can't not pay your best players in the league, what message does that send? You can be sensible, and avoid the brutal signings that happened with Backes, Lucic, Eriksson, Laad, deals etc., and I hated those contracts then and everyone hates them more now, but the agents and NHLPA will not allow it's superstars to be undercut by fears of the GMs and Owners not wanting to pay them in their UFA years. It's a business at the end of the day. Toews and Kane brought the Blackhawks millions of dollars in revenue between 2009-2015 - not to mention 3 cups - and they were paid for what they did. Should they have settled for less? Why would they? They achieved the ultimate goal, and Toews has won literally everything you can win in hockey except a Memorial Cup because he played in the NCAA. Players should get paid when they can, period. The GM's have to find the balance to kept the team competitive, that's their job, but players have one career and they should get as much money as they can.

One funny thing that many on here gloss over constantly but they give a huge double standard when talking about all this stuff.

For the Leafs they have been saying this.

Nylander doesn't deserve more than 6 million because he's a 60 point guy and isn't as good as Pastrnak or Gudreau etc. Then in the same thread will say that Marner deserves 10+ million and set a new bar for salary for wingers.

People just say whatever they want and then throw a bunch of garbage up to support their claim whether it makes any sense or not.

I'm on record, and I can dig up my post from the summer of 2018, when I say that Nylander should get Ehlers' deal plus cap inflation, which worked out to 6.5 million AAV. I think that it was a reasonable proposition, given what Nylander had done in his entry level contract: two, consistent 60 point seasons.

Marner is going to out-point Nylander's best year by 30 points (maybe more) pending he stays healthy. That is a substantial difference between Nylander's best year, and Marner will continue to prove that he is the more valuable player to the franchise. As I mentioned earlier, if the cap goes up (projected to reach 82-83 million) so do player salaries accordingly. So would you really be that surprised if Marner gets 9.5-10.5 million AAV after a 90-100 point season, knowing that Nylander effectively got 7 million for a 60 point season? I wouldn't be shocked and most realistic fans - Leafs or not - wouldn't be either.

I'd be shocked if Marner got 10 million, anything less and I won't be surprised. I think 9 million should be the ceiling for Marner. He's strictly a winger which should lower his value a bit.

I think long-term for the franchise the Leafs should do all that they can to get Marner under 10 million AAV. According to Nick Kypreos (take that for what it's worth) this past Saturday night when the Leafs played the Bruins, apparently Marner's camp asked for 8 years at 9 million AAV before the season started. Dubas said that was way too rich at the time, and said the discussions would continue in the future. Marner's camp is holding pat and saying they will not negotiate in season. Marner is betting on himself, and right now he's winning that bet. We'll see how Dubas handles it.

Kypreos just says whatever things pop into his head, he isn't an insider really and he's an old school goof that thinks you need players like him to win. I trust nothing he says, or anything that Sportsnet pedals these days.