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rush5154

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Forum: Armchair-GM20 sept. 2019 à 9 h 27
Forum: Armchair-GM16 sept. 2019 à 10 h 24
Sujet: What to do with Marner
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>blowing_the_zone</b></div><div>Rush! My, man!


I forgot all about you. And feel a little sheepish to say this but I had to read back through this thread from a couple months ago to figure out who you were.. I remember now! You're the guy who sees a different colored sky in your world. Never forget that you're special too, Rush.

I'm kinda humbled that you remembered me and hat you thought highly enough of me to get back in touch after all these months. It's why the golden rule is important.. you just never know who you might come across and have no idea what kinda impact you might have on someone else's life.. remember to pay that one forward, Rush. It will serve you well in life.

I had a peak at the thread but I don't recall reading that I told you he wouldn't get what he pulled in (to be honest, though, I really didn't read this all again.. I'm just not that invested in this stuff)..

But from what I gleaned I think I was really trying to say was, Dreger is a knob. If that didn't come across clearly before, let me be blunt.. Dreger. Is. A . Knob.

And the poor fella. After staking his journalistic integrity on his inside scoop with Marner, and after the many thousands of people openly mocked him as "Paul" he wasn't even the guy who broke the news. That was Friedman.

Anyways, good catching up, Rush. Don't be a stranger and do stay in touch... (just not that often,maybe? K?)

Hugs,

Your not so close buddy,

Blowing the zone.</div></div>

Glad to see you're still blowing, blowing the zone!

Missed you too, definitely enjoying my victory lap. Oh, and by the way, Dreger broke the news (read both the time stamps on their respective twitter feeds). Just because Friedman wrote it was "done", several minutes after Dreger brought his over 1 million followers to the party first letting them know it was 99% complete, doesn't mean he gets 100% credit. I know these types of details don't matter to you, since you've already made your mind up on Dreger, but the people who adhere to objectivity in this world probably care. Oh, and look who got the exclusive sit-down with Marner too? Our boy Dregs - another Win for the Insiders at TSN :)
Forum: Armchair-GM14 sept. 2019 à 8 h 55
Sujet: What to do with Marner
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>blowing_the_zone</b></div><div>Um, yeah, no. Your post clearly had no words to comprehend.

But in going through my post that you were responding to I found a snippet that you embedded in my response to you.

I have a hard time trying to understand the point that you're trying to make when your text is right infront of me, let alone trying to make sense out of you when I need to go hunting for your reply. But now that I've found what you wrote... yeah, I still don't get the point of what you're trying to get across??

There's probably a bunch of 12 yr old kids that frequent this site that could teach you how to use that fancy dancy multi post feature. You should ask them how its done.

Or you could use that old school cut and paste/copy function to move text from one post to the next. It's easy. You just need to know the difference between right and left click...Let me know if you get stuck, I'd be happy to walk you through it..

Ciao chica</div></div>

Told you he would sign a deal that was at least 10 million - in fact it's just under 11 million AAV on a 6 year term. Oh, and your favourite insider broke the news too - Darren Dreger :)
Forum: Armchair-GM19 août 2019 à 14 h 19
Sujet: Signing Marner And The Opening Roster Cap Situation
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MG1986</b></div><div>I put the full blame on all these Leafs' RFA negotiations firmly upon the shoulders of our rookie GM. Had he negotiated earlier on with Nylander, a precedent of "holding out" would have never been set. I am more aggravated over the hold out, then on the AAV they settled it with that one. But then comes Matthews, and I would agree with most of what you said in analyzing those negotiations. In the Matthews' negotiation, I was pissed off both with term (should have been longer for the money he got) and the AAV should have been less, in my opinion. If Tavares, an established, still young, #1 centre gets x amount, Matthews, especially on a 5 year deal, should not have gotten more. That was a huge fail in my opinion.

Word around Leafland is that they want Marner signed at the start of camp. Although nothing has been said yet, or agreed to internally, management has at least discussed a hard deadline. Meaning that if doesn't sign by x date, the Leafs will go through the entire season without him. It's a harsh but perhaps necessary move. Honestly, at this point, I would have absolutely no issue with the Leafs making an example out of Mitch Marner.</div></div>

I agree with everything you said - great points. And bingo - had Dubas called Nylander's bluff and used the CBA against him and made him sit-out a year without gaining anything, then I think the Marner negotiations have a way different trajectory than they currently do. What I still don't understand is why GMs are feeling the need to capitulate to RFAs (i.e., generally year 4 players), when the CBA was designed and agreed upon by both the players and owners to not give players of that category any leverage. So the player doesn't like the deal, holds out, sits out, then asks for a trade? It's not the NBA , GMs should be maximizing control as long as possible, and I'm player first for almost everything and want them to get paid. But don't do it just because 1-2 GMs made bad RFA deals.
Forum: Armchair-GM19 août 2019 à 11 h 56
Sujet: Signing Marner And The Opening Roster Cap Situation
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MG1986</b></div><div>Seems like a fairly significant overpay on what would otherwise be a bridge deal, at least as far as term. If Marner wanted 3 years (which I do not believe is the case), he would have to accept something around, and probably under $7 million. The ideal situation is a 6 year deal, which would ensure his contract doesn't expire when Matthews' and Nylander's does. And I expect that AAV would come around $10 million.</div></div>

I agree that all of this sounds logical, but the scope of this contract and term is very team friendly and my opinion is that Marner's camp is not in the business of making team friendly deals. And I can understand why Marner's camp is pushing back given how the Leaf's front office handled Matthews' deal.

Matthews' got: the perfect term; an amazing and "overpaid" AAV relative to his career success; and the perfect contract structure (bonus heavy). So when Marner's camp sees the Leafs give Matthews' everything without any major pushback, why wouldn't they push hard to get as close to that deal as possible? I get that people will use the Matthews' is a centre argument and goals are worth more argument, but what could Marner have done more in the past two seasons? Remember, Marner didn't get the full entry level bonuses and Matthews did; Marner got sent down to the fourth line when he was "struggling", but when Matthews' went 13 games without a point in his rookie year Babcock never sent him down to the fourth line; Marner proved to stay healthy and produce the past two seasons while Matthews' battled injuries. For context, I'm not hating on Matthews' - he's unbelievable and generally deserving of his contract. But if your Marner's camp, are you really going to stomach the front office telling you - again - that you won't get what Matthews' gets despite being an all-around more impact player who's effective in all situations? I can see why they're holding out and I know people will criticize this stance, but I can understand where Marner's camp is coming from. It's not their role to all of a sudden be team-friendly when Nylander's deal (to an extent) and Matthews' deals weren't.
Forum: Armchair-GM3 juill. 2019 à 14 h 37
Sujet: New Leafs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>b_sully1996</b></div><div>Sure, Marner is definitely the highest quality winger that Tavares has ever played with. However, without Tavares, he wouldn't have produced close to 90 points - just look at the advanced numbers. Tavares only exceded his career high in points by 2 this season while playing with Marner. Mitch exceded his career high by 25 points while playing with Tavares this past season. I'm not paying a winger north of $10 mill when he relies so heavily on his centreman to produce. Marner, on his own, would not have been able to command 8 figures without flanking JT last season. 70 points can't make you 8 figures when the cap is at $81.5 mill.

I believe we could make a compromise. I think we can both agree that his primary stats may require $10 plus mill to the layman with a quick look at his hockeydb page but his advanced statistics say otherwise. How about $10 mill x 7 years? Or $10.3 mill x 8 years? If I'm breaking the 8 figure threshold, I want more UFA years under team control.</div></div>

I think there’s common ground here for sure. Both Marner and Tavares benefit from playing with each other. Marner definitely benefited more than Tavares this year, but I don’t think Tavares ever envisioned himself scoring close to 50 goals and Marner almost helped him crack that threshold. Also, Marner playing with a bunch of 30 year olds in his first two years doesn’t help his numbers either, whereas Tavares played with guys similar to him in age and games played in the league.

Marners advanced stats like corsi and WAR might hurt his contract negotiations but his camp will counter by saying look at his primary point numbers which place him at the top of the league. Plus he plays and is trusted in all situations which arguably could make the case as him being their best all around player - again arguably.

The thing that complicated all this is what Dubas did with Matthews. If Matthews term was 7 or 8 years then this is an entirely different story. But because he gave Matthews five years on a hybrid bridge deal (Dreger called it that) it disrupted the RFA market. So now no one knows how to gauge one of the most talented RFA cohorts in league history. Ideally, the Leafs take at least a year or two of his free agency years like you said. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds.
Forum: Armchair-GM2 juill. 2019 à 18 h 25
Sujet: New Leafs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>b_sully1996</b></div><div>Marner is not in the same ilk as Kane, Kucherov, and Ovechkin and if you think that than you may need to be admitted to an institution. Marner would not have had 94 points last season if he wasn't flanking Tavares. JT has increased his wingers' production throughout his career and is the one who drives production on his line. The minute they leave Tavares's side, they become far less effective players (see Okposo, Moulson, Parenteau, Bailey, etc.). To prove this, compare Tavares's and Marner's advanced stats. Tavares's Corsi for % is 51.69 without Marner on the ice while Marner's is only 39.06 without Tavares. Tavares's scoring chances for % was 54.22 without Mitch while Marner's was a measly 39.76. Similar percentages are true for expected goal % and high danger Corsi for %. Also, goals are worth more than assists in this league and Marner hasn't proved he can score more than 26 goals. I'm not paying a 26 goal scorer who has his production elevated by his centreman $10-12 mill. Maybe, you're the one who should give your head a shake and not overpay players in a cap era who aren't worth it.</div></div>

I didn’t say Marner was the same ilk as those wingers and I did not use them as contract comparables. My point was that they drive play despite them not being centres and they were awarded their contracts for the deserved worth, accordingly.

Comparing Tavares’ previous wingers to Marner is a false equivalency in my opinion. None of those players possessed the same hockey IQ or cerebral decision making that Tavares did. He brought them up as far as he could but on their own they could not effectively impact a line. Marner however has proved the exact opposite to date. Every linemate he’s played with over consistent periods (ex: more than 20 games) have had career years with Marner in terms of points and/or goals. Go look at Kadri, Bozak, JVR, Hyman and Tavares’ numbers before and after playing with Marner - there definitely is a statistically significant trend.

So finally Marner and Tavares play a year together on the same line and the result was that they complemented each other extremely well. Both players hit career highs in points and Marner enabled Tavares to hit a career high in goals - which as you said is more important than assists. Well Tavares doesn’t crack 40 goals if it’s not for Marner. It’s an inter-dependent relationship and it benefits the Leafs. And because Dubas has set two RFA precedent deals (Matthews and Nylander) with paying players for potential and not for current worth it leads to one likely end result. Marner getting paid eight figures.
Forum: Armchair-GM2 juill. 2019 à 17 h 10
Sujet: New Leafs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>b_sully1996</b></div><div>Exactly. Also, Marner seems to have lost some leverage due to the fact that it's July 2nd and he hasn't been sheeted and Aho signed an offer sheet at $8.45 mill. If Marner thinks he's getting $2-3 mill more than Aho, who's a centre, than he's out to lunch and will have fun sitting/being traded next season. I thought my dollar amount was generous to be honest...</div></div>

Aho signed a Grade 3 offer sheet which is minimal in terms of compensation - just a first, second and third round pick. For Marner to sign an offer sheet it would have to be a Grade 1 offer sheet - four first round picks for compensation. Not many teams have the balls or the picks or both to pull that off. And enough of the centre &gt; winger argument. Look at the past decade of MVP players in the league. Half of them are wingers because they can drive play. Are you telling me Patrick Kane, Kucherov and Ovechkin all went into their contract negotiations and said “I guess you have to give me less cause I’m just a winger...” - of course not. They all got maximum value because they’re game breakers. Give your head a shake
Forum: Armchair-GM2 juill. 2019 à 17 h 4
Sujet: New Leafs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Vortex</b></div><div>ummmm if he doesnt take that then goodbye Marner, do you realise he's a winger who played with Tavares all damn year</div></div>

Do you realize Dubas caved and gave Nylander 7 million dollars AAV? Dubas could of held pat and let Nylander sit the season out but he didn’t. Instead he overpaid for someone who scored less goals than Ryan Reaves did lol. Then Dubas followed that up by letting Matthews become the second highest paid player behind McDavid on just a 5 year term walking him right to free agency. So after seeing that, when Marners lead the team in points two seasons in a row and has helped five line mates all get career highs in goals and points, why would he be the one who signs a team friendly contract? It doesn’t make sense for him and his camp in infinitely more stubborn than Nylanders for what it’s worth.
Forum: Armchair-GM28 juin 2019 à 15 h 3
Sujet: Cup 2020
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>nchest</b></div><div>Lol, Matthews is a two way centre who can put up 50 goals. He is a generational talent and Marner is a superstar, there is a difference. Marner got his points playing with another generational talent in Tavares. Matthews put up his points playing really with 3rd liners as he barely played with Nylander.

He likely doesn't sign for 2 years, but he is not better then Matthews</div></div>

Both players are highly elite, and arguments could be made for either side because of all their positive attributes.

Matthews' goal scoring abilities are generational, but he's no where near being considered a 2-way centre - he can't even kill penalties and his defending skills and coverage abilities are mediocre at best. Matthews, though, does put up great numbers on his own which is very impressive.

Marner complements players extremely well, and in just three years has now gotten several players career highs in points and goals (Hyman, JVR, Tavares, Kadri, and Bozak). I've seen this narrative before (i.e., it's only cause he plays with Tavares) and my counter-argument would be that for the first time Marner got put on a line with someone who has the same level of hockey IQ that he has. They played off of each other extremely well and both hit career highs.

Two years would never happen - too much to risk if an injury occurs. It'll be somewhere between 5-6 years so he can have another massive contract opportunity in his prime. And Marner is totally entitled for wanting that, as Dubas set the precedent for the Matthews' deal by giving him 5 years at 11.6 million AAV. People shouldn't hate on Marner - be frustrated at Dubas for allowing RFAs to out-leverage him when he actually held all the power in the first place (i.e., no arb rights, etc.).