The crunch is that you can't keep Gardiner in this scenario.

Of course not, everyone knows he is gone next season... we already have his replacement, dermott. Why would be put gardiner on the third pair and pay him 6-7m???

I think you meant to say "the BONUS is that you can't keep Gardiner in this scenario"

Kapanen is on pace for 20+ goals this year, he's taking 2.5m?

I think so....on a short term deal. He knows funds won't be there until Marleau is off the books so I can see him taking a nice raise for 1-2 years while trying to solidify himself as a LW alongside Matthews and Nylander. Might price himself off the leafs at that point but Brown took $2.1 off of 20 goals so it's not unprecedented.

He sure is 2.5m 2 year bridge, you don’t score a big contract off one good season. This could also be a 1 year show me deal but I feel kappy would be happy to sign on for 2 years and prove his worth.

Exactly my thoughts.

I’m not even a hater. I really like gardiner. But he just diesn’t Fit outlet structure or cap. I hope he gets a nice raise and continues to put up points somewhere else ( would love to see him play for the wild). Actually give me an idea dea for another agm.

$2.5 M on Kapanen at his current point pace could result in a few GM's finally deciding to go the offer sheet route knowing Leafs just couldn't match! 4M for 3-4 years would only cost a 2nd!

Very possible. I mean, offer sheets almost never happen...but Kapanen is certainly a guy another GM could target at that price that would be near impossible for the leafs to match and the 2nd is an easy price to pay.

Only counter point would be...would Kapanen take $4m on 3-4 years or $2.5 for 2 getting top line minutes with Matthews and Nylander and hope he can market himself as a $6m+ top line winger?

I don't know either way...too many variables...but yes, a Kapanen offer sheet is certainly in play

You are absolutely right and this is the type of offersheet that I think is more likely on the secondary players who get squeezed. It would be a big gamble by a gm with lack of history that kappy has but with his speed and skills I don’t think you can go wrong.

Now... here’s why it won’t work... kappy won’t Sign the sheet. 2.5m for 1-2 years then get a big contract and play on a line with your best friend with a cup contender or an extra 1.5m for 2 years and lose 2-3m the next two years playing for what is most likely a bottom 20 team.

I did the same thing here. Check out the trade I made to help balance this team out a little.

he's on pace for 30+

Kapanen, Marner, and Matthews all get 1 million more....andddd there's your cap crunch.

I don’t think so, if they do we will need to move a contract or two. We have plenty of elc forwards that are ready to move up and zaitsev contract could be moved for a cheaper replacement.

Mathews isn’t getting McJesus money, and really there is no comparable for marner at 10m on a first contract out of elc. Even kucherov only got 9.5m on his third contract. Is marner that much better than kucherov?

Also I seem to remember you saying that nylander was getting 8+.... maybe my numbers are right on lol.

The crunch is two fold.

1) Matthews, Marner, and Kapanen will all make in that range +/- $500,000. If they all lean towards the high end of the range, you'll have issues but that could be fixed by dumping Brown.

2) Gardiner. You may not like him but he's currently 2nd for defensemen on Toronto for TOI/GP at 21:39. Dermott might become his "replacement" but he's only averaging 17:45 per GP. Then you have to backfill Demott's time with someone who currently isn't getting any NHL icetime. Maybe you all trust your prospects to do it (and you all know your prospects better than I do) but i'd be nervous about that.

Borgman already has nhl experience Rosen could have made the team this year if it weren’t for our depth at left side and sandin most likely needs another year to develop but has been looking so good that he may make the team.

The thing I find funny is that where else would a young Dman get is start but on the third pair? Lol..,

I’m not worried at all about dermott ice time. It’s Babs l. Dermott can handle a lot more than what he is getting.

For the record I am a gardiner fan. I like what he brings and I understand what he lacks. I hate to see him go but like I said earlier he does not fit our structure or cap. The only way I see gardiner staying is dermott playing top RD, he is effective there... same as Reilly and moving zaitsev. Other than that jake has to walk.

Good points though.

Gardiner isn't worth the money someone is going to pay him as UFA. It's illogical to think Leafs or team can keep their UFAs....because by definition they are FREE.
I do think the Leafs are going to shore up their D, even if with a short term veteran. My thoughts either Kadri or Nylander is traded for cap relief

For all his deficiencies, gardiner seems like a pretty decent dman. Keeping him isnt worth sacrificing marner, mattews, or nylander. Who do you view as the better all around dman gardiner or zaitsev? Gardiner will cost more for sure but if hes better it might we worth keeping him over zaitsev

I think shipping Z out would just create another hole to fill. He's the only right shot dman with real NHL experience . Oz has been playing well as he builds confidence, but he averages like 14 mins a night, no pk time, no pp time, plays against soft competition and has only played 20 some NHL games. Z is 20+ mins a game against top competition and pks alot. If he is traded we just need to find another RHD plus a partner for Morgan.

Dermott has shown he can move up and take Gards place, I think. I'd love it if Dermott was moved to Reilly's right side and they found a way to keep Gards. That likely means squeezing the lower rfas and using Marlies to replace the likes of Brown, and maybe Lindholm and Hyman.

It would mean moving zaitsev for sure. Zaitsev is much more physical and better defensively. He can be offensive as well but being paired with gardiner means he has to think defense first. I’m okay with gardiner walking with Borgman Rosen and sandin coming up.

I think Jake likely walks. So many things would need to break right in order for him to stay that it would be bordering on hope . Thats not a great strategy..

I threw together a scenario earlier today where he stays on next year and used almost the same salary amounts as you did here. It could work.. if everything lined up. But if anything went sideways i think the collective sanity in leafland would crack. Seemed like it was at a breaking point with Nylanders contract . Several contracts need to be sorted for next year. I expect the drama to be intense... lol

If dubas somehow keeps our core and gardiner.... instant legend lol.

Isnt he adorable.......

to OP : btw, you marked Matthews with 1y

Maybe he did that on purpose, so that they can sign Matthews to more once Marleau’s contract is off the books.