Quoting: LobbysOilers
show me the metrics. do it. show me. career corsi of 43.7 and a career fenwick of 43.9. idk if you understand advanced stats, but that is REALLY bad, like one of the worst defensive players in the NHL - klefbom has a career corsi of 50.7 and a fenwick of 51.4. hes also riding a 96.8 PDO which means hes been insanely unlucky this year. you can also take a peak at their hero charts and see who the better player is based on that as well! Risto is SHOCKING with shot suppression and isnt better than Klef in anything except for ice time - but again , please show me these "metrics"
For someone who takes the effort to know and pull the advanced metric stats, it’s disappointing how lazy of a conclusion you derive.
For starters, I am not suggesting Risto is the better defensive D-man.
Second. Law of large numbers. As more data is being collected it’s becomming apparent that Corsi/fenwick numbers are not an accurate as originally thought. They remain a useful team stat in predicting possession and therefore a team’s chances of winning given certain game situations, but they’re largely flawed. Especially when being applied to individual players.
To back up your claim that Klef is exponentially better based on Corsi is narrow sighted. Add a bit of logic instead of going all Billy Beane on the analysis.
Risto is the better offensive d-man
Klef is the better defensive d-man
Logic would lead one to assume that producing offence is a more desirable and difficult trait than preventing offence.
History will tell us that GM’s place a higher value on scoring vs defence.
IMO, regardless of stats, Risto has the higher trade value based on his production.
Now. A smart GM might look at each players traditional statistics as well as their advanced metrics and determine that there’s reason to believe that Klef has a chance to put up better numbers moving forward. He might have about a 60% chance of being right, too. He could then use this theory to trade the player with higher perceived value (Risto) for the player he thinks may be more valuable in the near future (Klef) +maybe another asset to bring the trade values on par.
Unfortunately that’s about the extent of it. Saying Klef is the exponentially better player based on your advanced metrics is wrong. The best you can claim is that advanced metrics suggest Klef might ultimately be better than Risto so I prefer to have him on my team at the lower cap hit