Do the Oilers have enough confidence to trade an unprotected pick

What's the high reward for the Oilers? Allen and Savard are just okay players at this point in their careers. They might be upgrades on what the Oilers have now but that pales to what they would miss if that pick ends up being top 5 or even top 10. In terms of dumping Campbell, if the cost is 3 1sts to dump him, it's simply not worth it, but even if that's the measure a top 3 pick would be more valuable than three bottom 10 picks, and the 5th overall is slightly less value than three 27OV picks.

The intrinsic value of getting a top-10 selection for the Oilers could be far greater than the Oilers getting away with dumping Campbell for a mere top-10 protected 1st place. That's only amplified if whoever they draft would be NHL-ready. Worst case they buyout Campbell and stick that ELC player into the lineup.

On the other hand, the risk for MTL is pretty low in comparison, Allen at full cap hit is probably worth like a 3rd, and Savard may be a 2nd at best. MTL's 2nd probably ends up being somewhere between 42-47 OV but even if they somehow fall to 32nd in the league, any 1st rounder the value comes slightly ahead of the 28th OV pick. So, on that front they end up basically breaking even with the likelihood that they end up ahead. So, the only downside is having to take back Campbell's contract at a heavily discounted rate/ for free.


So, it's really high risk - low reward for the Oilers and low/medium risk - high reward for the Canadiens. To answer the title, no they wouldn't have the confidence, only 25% of the teams that are out of a playoff spot at this point make it in, and the chances for a bottom 5 team in the standings to do it is super low.

The Oilers can’t afford Savard.

It’s like the NBA now, nobody is trading unconditional picks unless they are getting superstars it’s just the way of the world.

I understand your perspective, which seems to indicate that you don’t think Edmonton can make the playoffs this year (which is not unreasonable, given how far behind they are).

If Edmonton does make the playoffs the reward is huge to them: giving up the 17th overall pick (at worst) to get rid of Campbell’s contract (which also could allow positive players in future years by not having to pay Campbell).

I also think Edmonton also has to consider a couple of factors about Leon Draisaitl: (1) how much money do they need to extend him (does getting rid of all $5M of Campbell help a lot more than simply buying out Campbell and keeping a portion of his contract on the books) and (2) does it make Leon more willing to stay in Edmonton if the team shows that they are doing whatever it takes to win each year (rather than essentially giving up on the 2nd to last season of his current contract)? Edmonton has not had a ton of success yet (given how good they should be) and maybe Leon is leaning towards moving on if no moves are made to help the team.

Just a thought.