I'm not a Leafs fan, but their offseason is shaping up to be a pretty fascinating one, so I thought I'd take a crack at it.
The Leafs are looking at big changes this summer. Most immediately is the front office situation, but the ripple effects will extend throughout the organization. There is a distinct possibility the core four will be broken up, as their combined cap hits are too expensive to adequately round out the rest of the roster.
Looking at each individually, Tavares has a NMC that he's not waiving (he's already said as much). He's staying. Matthews is the best player and cornerstone of the group, and the Leafs will prioritize extending him. He likely stays as well. Nylander has the best value contract of the group, so trading him to upgrade the roster elsewhere likely will end up being a net zero. I think he sticks around. That leaves Marner.
Marner is an elite playmaking RW who is also a borderline Selke-caliber defender. He's a top tier player. However, he also has a $10.9M cap hit. It may ultimately end up being in the Leafs' best interest to turn Marner and the cap space he occupies into multiple players who, while individually are not on Marner's level, combined can have a bigger impact on the roster. It has been reported that Toronto is looking for a "top-pairing defenseman" as the centerpiece of any Marner return. However, Marner is two years from free agency. Any team looking to acquire him is looking to win as well, so they won't be too eager to gut their roster. That makes a trade difficult. However, what may work is trading Marner to a contending team for primarily futures, and then flipping those futures to a rebuilding team to get the immediate contributors the Leafs desire.
That's the scenario I explored here. I've seen some Carolina fans promoting a futures-based package for Marner, and the fit seems pretty solid. Carolina has the cap room to absorb him and the future assets to trade to Toronto, meaning they can upgrade their roster in a major way to push for the cup without removing key contributors already on the team. The only roster player I traded away from the Hurricanes is Teräväinen, whose spot would be upgraded by Marner. Toronto then flips those futures to Philadelphia for Konecny, a player previously linked to the Leafs and can fill Marner's spot on the RW, and Provorov, who can provide the defensive support Toronto is looking for.
For free agents, I think the Leafs have to find a way to keep O'Reilly and Schenn, given how critical they were down the stretch. Acciari and ZAR are quality bottom six pieces, so I brought them back as well. In net, Samsonov is locked up to form a tandem with Woll, and Murray is offloaded.
As always, let me know your thoughts! Helpful feedback is appreciated! Cheers!
I borrowed the framework of this trade from a Carolina fan's ACGM. I replaced one of the first round picks with Teräväinen, but kept the rest of the return futures-based.
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/4184801
The idea here is that Philly is staring down the barrel of a rebuild and Konecny and Provorov's contracts will be up before they are ready to compete again. As such, they'd probably want any return for them to be more futures-based. Toronto essentially flips many of the future assets they got for Marner to a team looking for that type of return in exchange for a quality defenseman and winger.
Modeled after the Mrazek trade from last year; Toronto gets rid of Murray's cap hit and moves down a few spots, San Jose gets a goalie option for next year and moves up in a deep draft. Note: this could be any team if the Sharks aren't interested. Wishing the best for Murray, but if his concussion issues linger, Toronto could alternatively send him to Robidas Island.
There’s one massive difference in the Mrazek to Chicago trade than the Murray to San Jose trade: San Jose doesn’t need the cap, Chicago did. San Jose has no reason to take on Murray with his risk for this
McDavid, Connor
250 000 $)
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