So the Penguins are in a fascinating position. Questions up and down the lineup, not a lot of significant players off the books, and a surprising amount of money to work with.
Let's start with the keystone - who's going to be the next GM? Rumors are everywhere and there are a lot of good options. I think my favorites are Eric Tulsky, Sam Ventura, and Jason Botterill. Best case scenario, we get one as GM, one as AGM or President of Hockey Ops. But FSG is willing to go off the board so who knows? Can't get much worse than Hextall.
Next, any coaching changes? Probably not. Mike Sullivan is a good coach who had a bad year, and it's pretty clear he and Hextall didn't share a vision. The stars love Sully and a better GM can probably work better with him. Maybe one of Mike Velluci or Todd Reirdan gets replaced to add a new voice to the room and make some changes. But I don't see it as likely.
The biggest question on the roster itself is unquestionably goaltending. And I'm going to argue for a hot take - Tristan Jarry is probably still our best bet. We know what he's capable of at his best. An above average starter who's gotten Vezina consideration a few times. It's probably a risk to give him his big boy contract, but a 1-2 year "prove it" deal could be fine. Give him the offseason to fully heal, let him get his confidence back, see what he can do.
OK, so why not replace him? Alternatives are slim. Apparently Minnesota doesn't want to rush Wallstedt, so Gustavsson/Fleury are probably out. I doubt the other major RFAs, Swayman and Samsonov, are within our reach either. Maybe Swayman if Boston runs into harsh cap issues, but I wouldn't count on it.
So no RFAs, what about UFAs? The best options there are probably Korpisalo, Hill, and Varlamov. I don't trust Korpisalo to be consistent. Great this year, but probably a bottom 5 goalie in the league the year before (and a pretty poor one more often than not). I just don't think he's going to keep up the magic. Hill is fairly untested and has never been a clear starter, and this year is the first really solid one he's had. He'd be my pick out of the UFA crop if I had to, but I think Jarry is a safer bet as a starter. I'm not sure if Varlamov is capable of being a good starter at his age, either. Good 1B, probably, but I don't think he's going to be anything more again.
Trades, then? The only major names I've seen are Thatcher Demko and John Gibson. Demko is basically Jarry 2.0, except both his on-ice performance and injury issues were arguably worse than Jarry's. What's the point in spending a 1st+ for basically the same commodity we just let walk in free agency? And it's been made pretty clear by Ducks fans, management, and the man himself that that really isn't on the table. I don't really want him anyway, the last time he had a SV% or GSAx even close to decent was 2018-19.
To me, Jarry is an option with one of the lower risks, but one of the higher rewards.
For that matter, DeSmith also had a down year. If he doesn't have to have a larger workload, he'll probablye a fine backup. It's only 1 year left at $1.8M anyway, we're probably not getting a decent goalie at that price. If he struggles, give Filip Lindberg or Joel Blomqvist their first taste of the NHL, see how they perform.
And that's a fairly common mentality for me. This team needs an influx of speed and youth. Give Lindberg and Blomqvist a look. Give Ty Smith a look. Give one to Poulin, Hallander, Puustinen, Nylander, some of the young guys. Giving the guys in the minors a chance and seeing if they'll run away with it was part of the reason why the '16 and '17 teams were so good (Guentzel, Rust, and Sheary come to mind). Do I expect that level of impact? No. But contributions from them and some more opportunities for O'Connor and Poehling will go a long way towards improvent over last season. If it works, splendid. If not, cheap depth can probably be found around the league in December-ish.
Filling out the rest of the forwards:
Jason Zucker's praises have been sung all the time by Pens fans and they can't be sung enough. He filled the hype-inducing engine role that Tanev performed, but in a top 6 role. Yeah I know the age thing, but bring him back for a few more years. I don't know where we're going to find that level of energy if he goes.
I do not understand what the Hextall regime saw in Granlund. It's nothing personal, but that contract is going to suck unless he has a career renaissance like Zucker did. Depending on what teams would be listening on him for, I'm fine with either trading him or just buying him out if the price to get rid of him is high. Buyout is 833k this year, 1.833M for 3 after that. Not too bad, especially with the expected cap growth.
The cap space from Granlund's departure would allow us to make an offer to an actually decent middle-six player to improve the roster. I chose Tyler Bertuzzi here because of the flexibility he adds, fitting on basically any wing in the top 9, and being a former 30 goal scorer when we have a lot of playmakers. Should definitely also consider Michael Bunting, JT Compher, and to a lesser extent, Domi, Tarasenko, and the other solid scorers in free agency.
I do want a sort of Tanev-esque presence in the bottom 6 if I can get my hands on it. I have Garnet Hathaway penciled in because he's probably the best of the available bunch, but depending on the wiggle room of other moves this team makes, we may need to go with someone cheaper. Get some more physicality and defense in that bottom 6, hopefully make the team more well rounded. Might have to end up bringing Bonino back. Something of a shame that he and Kulikov barely played for us.
Heinen and Archibald probably are gone, but I don't mind bringing either back cheap if any of the young guys don't work out, or we don't want one of them scratched instead of in the AHL.
Finally, the very problematic defense. I think having Ty Smith in and letting Dumoulin walk is already a substantial upgrade. I love Dumo and he was an integral part of this team since the back to back cups, but he's on the decline and we need younger players. Smith and Joseph being given another offseason of development will probably also help. If we can find the cap space, I'm willing to trade one of them in a package for an immediate impact guy to play in the top 4, but I'm already allocating most of our available space elsewhere.
Speaking of being really old, Jeff Petry. I think he was mostly a fine 2nd pairing defenseman this season, he just had a tendency to make The Big Mistake (patent pending) and the age problem rears its head again. Like Granlund, if we can find a way to get his contract off our hands (even if we have to retain some) at a reasonable price, we should take it. The clear target to fill his spot is Damon Severson, but there aren't a lot of options after that that I really like. Maybe Mayfield or Dumba. (Soucy, Ghost, and Ty Smith are also options, but I'm not a fan of playing any of them on their off-side). We probably part with Kulikov and maybe one of Ruhwedel or Friedman.
So I've spent too much time on this. Shoutouts to you if you're still reading. Now go touch grass, I need to as well.
In conclusion, the Pens are balanced on a knife's edge. There's some cleaning up after Hextall to be done, and this team's future isn't certain. FSG doesn't seem interested in a rebuild, but with a competent GM at the helm, we just might be able to turn back the clock and shore up the supporting cast for a little while.
And let me know what you think (and by that I mean I can't wait for all the complaints about Jarry being directed towards the replies). Naturally, I don't have all the answers and can't know for sure what the best move for any given team is. I'm probably forgetting something or haven't thought of a good idea. At the very least, thank McJesus that Hextall is gone.
Few other goalies you could probably consider. Freddy Andersen UFA, Linus Ullmark 2 years remaining, and Boston has major cap issues, Swayman is the goalie of the future there, they'd rather loose Ullmark to keep Swayman. Lehner from Vegas, 2 years remaining, coming off major surgery, but had an entire season to recover.
GM: Good mentions. Not crazy about Botterill. Other names that I dont think I would be mad at are Treliving, Dubas, Karmanos. There was also mention of Theo Epstein, who is in the MLB. Dont know how good he would do, but nonetheless, there are good options.
Goalie: I agree. Jarry is the best option. I think a 3 year x $4.5M annually could work.
Young players: Smith & Puustinen (or any other young forward) should earn a spot in the lineup.
Zucker: We need him back. I honestly would not mind giving him a longer deal if the AAV is low. You already have Rust/Rakell and others signed long-term, so give Zucker like 5 years at maybe $4M annually.
Granlund: I could see the benefit to buy him out, but I feel like we maybe give him another chance.
Defense: Dumo needs to be gone. Bring in Smith. I think Pettersson/POJ/Smith could be a decent left side, but we could do more. I would move POJ for a bottom 6 forward. Some teams that come to mind would be FLA, SEA, TBL, NSH. I would then target a top LD. To me, Graves would be an amazing add. Good defensively, great size. I am a little surprised with the Petry hate. He played 2nd pairing and barely got top PP minutes, but was still on a 40-point pace. He played well alongside Pettersson, so if that can be your 2nd pairing next year, I am all for it.
Lots of good stuff here but I'll focus on the youth movement parts. You have Poehling and O'Connor at $1.2M each, I think both should come a little cheaper (around $900k each?) Every $100K counts because of this mess Hextall left. I think going in with Joseph and Smith as 2LD and 3LD would be a huge mistake, I like your idea of trading Joseph for a good bottom-six forward. He definitely has value with that cheap contract. Nylander looked good but then he showed some stick to the perimeter Kapanen tendencies. I'd be ok with letting him walk. Puustinen is the one who should get a chance at 2RW or 3RW. It's rumored that Hållander is leaving North American and is going to play at home in Sweden (SHL) which is a shame. He would have been a good option at 4LW on a cheap contract. Lindberg's time with the organization might be up as well, I think Gauthier and Blomqvist have a strong shot at being the AHL tandem.
Lastly I really hope Poulin pans out and can be an option for 3C. With his time away from the game though, I have my doubts. I'll be rooting for him though.
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Haymaker26 a aimé ceci.
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