We Need 2 Top 9 Forwards

Équipe: 2021-22 Flames de Calgary

Date de création initiale: 14 janv. 2022

Publié: 14 janv. 2022

Mode - plafond salarial: Basique

We're a good defensive team and don't score enough. 4 guys have 59.8% of our goals. That's literally more top heavy than Edmonton (their top 4 scorers have 59.4% of their goals). True contenders like Colorado and Florida are getting ~40% of their goals from their top 4 scorers. Let's look at why this is a little bit.
Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk have been elite at both ends of the ice. No complaints here.
Mangiapane is having a career year, he's been everything we could have asked for and more.
Lucic has 8 goals which is fantastic (about 2-3 more than I would have liked by this point), but he's been our only secondary scoring, and ideally he plays 4LW.
Monahan, Backlund, and Dube only have 4 goals apiece, and Coleman's only at 6 goals. If 20/15/15/20 is a reasonable expectation (and honestly I would hope for more) for these guys over a full season (respectively), they should be at 8/6/6/8 not 4/4/4/6. Their respective iXG in all situations is 6.17/7.42/6.89/9.49. This is the root of our problem. These guys have scored around 12 goals under expected (70 goals over 82 games = 29 combined goals right now, they have 18, and they have a combined iXG of 29.97). We need more scoring from the middle of the lineup, particularly these players, who are relied upon to provide offense.
Pitlick has 0 goals, and only 1.55 iXG. For a guy getting 3rd line minutes, this is unacceptable. He's been fine defensively, but that shouldn't cut it. He should be 4RW max, but I think Lewis has been fine there, and prefer him over Pitlick honestly. Lewis has 3 goals and 4.47 iXG, which is pretty decent for a 4th liner, not gonna complain about that when he's a good energy guy and great PKer.
Ritchie sucks, and should never get top 9 minutes again. I don't even like him at 4RW. I think he's probably our 14th best forward as it stands right now. He's been hurt most of the year, but still has 0 goals and 1.89 iXG, but if you watch him out there, you don't expect him to ever score. He's an offensive black hole, only good for being physical. He doesn't even kill penalties.
Ruzicka I would like to see get more ice, and Richardson is acceptable at 4C too, these guys aren't affecting games very often though. They chip in every now and then which is nice, but that's neither bad nor good.
Andersson has 0 goals in 34 games. For a PP1 QB who plays 22.5 minutes per night, this is unacceptable. He should be around 5 goals at LEAST at this point, almost every PP1 QB in the league has at least 3 goals total. Only 6 guys have played more PP time than Andersson this year and have 0 goals (4 of them still have 3+ goals, the other two are Chabot, who has 1 goal, with the same amount of assists as Andersson, on a significantly worse team, in less GP, and the other is Quinn Hughes, who has 2 goals and 28 total points lol). Among 24 D with 85+ minutes of PPTOI this year, he has the least amount of points (he's at 101mins PPTOI btw). He has been excellent overall, but his lack of concrete production is beginning to be concerning. He should regress positively and start producing more given how he impacts the game offensively in general, and the quality/quantity of PP time he's given, but we've been saying that for at least 2 years now. And he only has an iXG of 2.47, I'm really not sure how anyone with as much opportunity as he's given has that low expected goals. Regardless, going from Giordano (regularly ~15 goals per year) to nothing from our PP1 QB is a steep drop off. I think Kylington should probably get an extended look there, he's been great this year, and has the most goals (4), 2nd most assists (15, 1 less than Andersson), and most points (19) among our D, but Andersson does need to produce more even if he gets taken off PP1. Our PP has been run effectively by a LHD for years, so no matter how hard Andersson's slapshot is, maybe Kylington is the right answer for producing maximum offense there.
Hanifin at 3 goals and Tanev at 1 is about what I would have expected, iXG says Hanifin should have 1 extra, so that's fine.
Our 3rd pair provides no offense, and isn't even good at moving the puck. Zadorov especially can't do anything with the puck. Sometimes it seems like he's more likely to pass to the other team than our own guy, he just kills any shot we have at moving up the ice. I really think that the PK isn't gonna suddenly become terrible if we throw Hanifin out there to kill a penalty once in a while (right now our PK pairs are Gudbranson-Tanev and Zadorov-Andersson), so I would like to see Zadorov replaced with Valimaki, or even Mackey. Both of those guys are puck movers, Valimaki is decent defensively (he was trusted to kill penalties last season), and infinitely better than Zadorov at moving the puck to counter attack and producing any sort of offense.

Overall here's how I see our ideal lines this season:
Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk
Mangiapane-x-x
Coleman-Backlund-x
Lucic-Monahan-Lewis

Dube is one x (any position, preferably not 2C, but he might have to be). Coleman/Mangiapane can play either wing. So what we need to do up front is fill in the last two x slots, preferably with guys capable of scoring at least 20 goals each. Clearly Ritchie and Pitlick are not the solution as middle six forwards. So here's the list of guys that might be available at the TDL that could play 2C, or middle six wing. Don't tell me they're not available because the team is doing too good, if I think the team is definitely a legit playoff team I've excluded players from them (e.g. Forsberg). These guys also would obviously have various prices, generally ranging from 1st+top prospect to mid-round pick.

Could play on the second line (1-2): Rakell, D. Brown, Hertl, Labanc, R. Smith (if Martinez/Patches/Eichel all return, although it's pretty doubtful Vegas sends him here), Kessel, P. Kane (probably out of our price range lol), Pavelski, Domi, Giroux, Olofsson, Toffoli, C. Brown
Third liners: (0-1): Donskoi, Jarnkrok, Radulov, Namestnikov

On D, I think our ideal lines look like this:
Hanifin-Andersson
Kylington-Tanev
x-Gudbranson

x is currently Zadorov. I think it should be Valimaki or Mackey, and I think we should give them a try now, to experiment before the TDL. Ideally the inability of the 3rd pair to move the puck is resolved from within by one of our two young, talented LD that are both NHL ready, but should probably be resolved at the TDL if they aren't the solution (like Tampa brought in Savard to solidify their 3rd pair last year, we should look for a 4/5 puck-moving D to pair with Gudbranson).

Available trade chips: Pitlick, Ritchie, any prospect outside of Coronato/Pelletier/Wolf, all picks (Zary only available for a good top six C with term, like Hertl if he comes with an extension)

TLDR: we need two middle six players that can score, and a puck-moving 3LD (ideally found from within), and should put Kylington on PP1. Idk how much deadline cap space we have so I went over the cap and don't care (risk waiving Richardson or even Zadorov if needed, or get someone to retain more on Hertl for a mid-round pick).

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