Quoting: Alfie11
I know we’ve had some questionable picks but they’re always within the realm of reasonable. Like last year, Stutzle at 3 was a no-brainer, Sanderson at 5 was questionable but at least he was pretty unanimously a top 8 pick at worst and fills the McDonagh role of guy who can take heavy shutdown minutes. Greig was projected around there. Jarventie was the first stretch, projected around mid-3rd, but there was pre-draft chatter that he had all the tools and teams were considering him with a 1st (unlike any of our picks this year). Kleven was a 2nd. Sokolov was projected at some point in the 3rd. Merilainen was off the board but taking a skilled goalie with our 7th pick of the draft is a fine gamble by then. So basically, the only real reach was maybe Jarventie by a round, maybe Sokolov by half a round, all of our other first 6 picks went within like, +/- 5 spots of expected. Boucher was a reach by nearly a full round, and he was picked 10th, where the chasm is enormous (scouts generally talk about the first tier, in this draft 9 consensus skaters, and then maybe 1-2 more tiers, and then by 20-40 they could go in any order, Boucher was ranked near the bottom fringe of that category [3rd tier] and went as if he was close to a first tier guy). Our next 3 picks were all reaches by multiple full rounds. It’s fine to reach for a guy if you don’t think he’ll be there by your pick in the next round and you have him ranked maybe a few slots below your pick, but to reach for a guy that will be there at your next pick is just inexcusable imo. Boucher could turn out to be a very good prospect, but it’ll be a tough sell to be better than Sillinger/Lucius/Svechkov and Wallstedt/Cossa. Our 2nd rounders likely won’t outperform all of Stankoven/Pinelli/Kapanen/Raty/Chibrikov/etc. If they turn into good prospects it’s kinda more luck at that point. I just think Dorion refuses to draft anyone smaller than 6’2” which is kind of insane (Maroon at 6’3” and Goodrow at 6’2” were the only tampa forwards above 6’1” for the record, and nearly all of our guys are bigger than that at this point).
Magic Beans. Every draft is magic beans. I get it, I'm skeptical too. That being said, I'll trust Mann due to the fact he and Dorion have a pretty good track record for projecting talent. Remember 2017 and how Ottawa had 4 picks? Formenton in the 2nd and Batherson in the 4th. Both of which are 1st round talents, IMO. Formenton with his speed and Batherson with his hands and shot. Shane Bowers was the 1st round pick and he turned into Lassi Thomson (via the Duchene trade). He also hasn't hit his stride in Colorado. Thomson is in line to replace Zaitsev eventually.
It's also way to early to tell. Boucher likely won't see NHL time untl 2-3 years down the road which is normal for a top 10 pick.
Too many variables in this draft when it comes down to it:
1- We all knew it was going to be one of the weaker drafts in terms of skill this decade. Specially after last year.
2- Pandemic really screwed and skewed a lot of these prospects out of play time. Good luck trying to play when you can't leave your house.
3- Advanced stats can only carry you so far. Eventually you need to see these kids play and not being able to, Mann probably had his team look at older footage of when they were 1-2 years younger. Saw a huge jump in Boucher's play from last year to this year. Similar to that of Pinto. Saw the potential and said, this is our guy that fits the mold.
4- The percentages of players actually playing in the NHL that are drafted in the later rounds (3-7) is minuscule. Sure, one team can find gems here and there (think Brayden Point in round 3), but it is so very unlikely they ever see anything higher than ECHL-AHL hockey.
The size of these players is fine as long as they can keep up with the play. The NHL has started to shift to big and skilled and you're going to see a lot of guys come up that are massive kids that can really skate well in a straight line.
We shall see in 2-3 years time and we'll have the same discussion after next years draft. Lots of kids got passed over in this draft that are going to really come back with a vengeance and something to prove. Could be a good one!